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Friday, January 03, 2020

Facial recognition technologies in India: Why we should be concerned

by Smriti Parsheera.

All around us we are seeing a surge in the adoption of facial recognition technologies (FRTs) -- biometric systems that can be used to verify or identify a person based on their facial patterns. Examples of this range from National Crime Records Bureau's (NCRB) proposal to create a nation wide automated facial recognition system for law enforcement purposes to the Digi Yatra scheme that promotes the use of facial recognition at airports; from Facebook's auto tagging of photographs to Chaayos's use for receiving payments and recording reward points.

The inalienability of a person's face and the convenience with which it can be captured, make it an easy choice for satisfying the ever expanding demands of identifiability in the digital era. This is supplemented by the increased availability of digital images, videos and widespread use of closed circuit television (CCTV) systems, all of which become the fodder for the training and deployment of facial recognition systems. However, this is also the reason why the rapid adoption of FRTs, without any accompanying checks and balances, becomes worrying at many different levels.

In a recent Data Governance Network paper we discuss the growing use cases of FRTs in India and the legal and ethical concerns around it. These concerns include the lack of transparency around the use of FRTs; the threats to privacy and other civil liberties; problems of accuracy and effectiveness; and evidence of biased outcomes. While all of this holds true for the use of FRTs by the government as well as private entities, the imbalance of power between the citizen and the state and the likely consequences from its abuse make it particularly relevant to question the use of FRTs for law enforcement purposes.

Functions and use cases of FRTs

Most of the well known use cases of FRTs can be classified into four buckets based on their underlying functions.

The first function is that of identity verification -- checking if a person really is who they claim to be. For instance, in January, 2018, the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) had announced that it would allow the use of FRT as one of the modes of authentication under the Aadhaar Act. Through subsequent circulars the UIDAI had also mandated telecom service providers to start undertaking face authentication of their subscribers. While, following the Supreme Court's verdict in the Puttaswamy case, it is no longer possible for the government to mandate Aadhaar based face authentication by private entities like banks and telecom companies, the possibility of it being used by the government for distribution of welfare benefits remains very true.

The use of FRTs for purposes like voter identification, conducting know your customer (KYC) verifications and attendance in schools and offices are some of the other use cases that would fall under this head. For example, Delhi's Indian Institute of Technology has a home-grown solution called Timble that is used to mark student attendance. Proposals are also underway to roll out similar systems to mark the attendance of young school going students in Tamil Nadu's government schools and for all government teachers in the state of Gujarat.

The next function is that of access control, which basically builds on the identity verification function to assess whether a person is an authorised user of a particular space or service. Applications that pursue this function include biometric unlocking of mobile devices, entry into airports, homes or other premises and authorising withdrawals from ATM machines. For instance, in 2018, the Ministry of Civil Aviation launched the Digi Yatra project to create a facial biometrics based boarding system to be launched at various Indian airports. Testing under the project, which is currently voluntary, has already been going on at the Hyderabad, Bengaluru and Delhi airports. Similar systems have already been adopted at airports in many other parts of the world.

The third broad category, which also evokes the strongest concerns, is that of security and surveillance, including use of FRTs for law enforcement purposes. As per the AI Global Surveillance Index released by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 85 percent of the countries that they studied (64 out of 75) were found to be using facial recognition systems for surveillance purposes (Feldstein, 2019). Examples of this include the Skynet and the Sharp Eyes projects in China, live facial recognition systems being tested by the London Metropolitan Police and NCRB's proposed National Automated Facial Recognition System (NAFRS).

As per the tender document released by NCRB in June, 2019, NAFRS is meant to be used for a range of purposes, including the identification of criminals, missing children and persons and unidentified dead bodies. The images that may be used for these purposes may come from the Crime and Criminal Tracking Network System (CCTNS), passport authorities, the Central Finger Print Bureau or the government's missing children tracking portal. The list also contains a sweeping category for "any other image database available with police / other entity". This seems to suggest that virtually each and every database in the country could potentially be linked to this system.

A clarification issued by the NCRB in response to a legal notice sent by the Internet Freedom Foundation (IFF) suggests that the scope of the project may be slightly narrower than what is indicated in the tender document (IFF, 2019). However, even if this were to be believed to be true, the design and scale of the project signal the clear likelihood of a gradual mission creep once such a system is put in place.

In addition to NCRB's proposed system, several state police departments are already deploying facial recognition systems. This includes reports about the use of FRTs by the Delhi Police, the Hyderabad police and under the Punjab Artificial Intelligence System.

Finally, FRTs also serve a number of commercial and business efficiency related functions. This includes photo tagging on social media apps, photo filter functions on chat apps and various uses in the retail and hospitality sectors. For instance, digital signage systems can predict a gazer's age and gender and accordingly display suitable advertisements and content for them. Facial detection and analysis also serves as the building block for other tools like emotion or sentiment analysis, which can offer useful applications in the marketing and entertainment sectors.

What are the main concerns?

Most of the use cases of FRTs, in India as well as globally, can be tied down to the pursuit of greater convenience (contactless payments and shorter queues at airports), efficiency (reduced airport staff), security (scanning crowds for "suspicious" persons), or accountability (checking for teacher absenteeism). While the technology could possibly help in achieving some of these objectives, this is often not established through rigorous and transparent testing. Moreover, the use of FRTs comes at a significant cost, which is not being accounted for by the developers and adopters of such systems.

The primary focus of most of the technical research on face recognition has been on improving the accuracy and efficiency of the technology. In other words, to minimise the false negatives and false positives. While both these metrics are useful indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of machine learning systems, their actual relevance has to be seen in light of the context in which such technologies are being deployed. For instance, false negatives in a system like Aadhaar would lead to the exclusion of legitimate beneficiaries while a false positive in the surveillance and law enforcement context can subject individuals to unwarranted investigation, embarrassment and harassment (Marda, 2019).

However, even if a facial recognition system were to achieve perfect accuracy, that would not make an obvious case for its adoption. This is because the use of FRTs has many other far reaching implications, from a legal, ethical and societal perspective, which need to be taken to account while determining whether and to what extent this technology should be deployed. Following are some of the main areas of concern.

Transparency -- In most situations there is a complete lack of information about when, or the specific purposes for which, FRTs are being deployed. Individuals affected by these systems also do not have access to meaningful information about the sources of training data that were used to develop the system, the sources of gallery images, the criteria for the selection of a particular vendor or technology partner, the accuracy rates of the system and the privacy and security protocols being followed. Transparency about these aspects is a necessary step for enabling independent testing and audits of facial recognition systems.

Information of this sort can become particularly necessary when facial analysis tools are being used to determine whether a person's face matches with someone who is suspected of committing an offence. Civil society groups in the United States are currently contesting a claim before the Florida Supreme Court in a case where a person was convicted for illegal sale of drugs based on the results of a facial recognition algorithm. The accused was the first among a list of probable matches identified by the algorithm with a "one star of confidence" that it had generated the correct match. The person was however not given access to the basis on which this determination was made or the details of the other individuals who were identified as potential matches.

Privacy and civil liberties -- The permanence of one's face and its intrinsic link with personal identity makes facial recognition a powerful tool for identification. The fact that in a large number of cases a person's face is exposed at all times or their images are available in various government and private databases makes it particularly difficult to exercise agency over the use of one's facial data. Some examples of privacy invasive uses of FRTs include its adoption by the Chinese Government for the profiling and tracking of Uighur Muslims and integration of FRTs in body worn cameras used by police forces in many parts of the world.

Widespread use of FRTs can also create a chilling effect on other rights, like the right to free movement, assembly and speech. Visuals of masked protesters in Hong Kong taking down smart lamp posts and surveillance cameras are symbolic of this tussle between the state's use of surveillance technologies and counter-measures being resorted to by protesters. As governments chose to crack down on such forms of resistance through "anti-mask initiatives" this not only affects the rights of the protesters but also those who may adopt facial coverings for various religious, cultural or practical reasons.

Concerns about the overreach of FRTs are however not just limited to autocratic regimes or even to government related uses. Private sector use of facial recognition also poses many significant threats to privacy and security. For instance, researchers have demonstrated how a person's face can easily be used as a personal identifier for pooling together information about them from multiple online sources -- like dating websites and social media portals (Acquisti, Gross, and Stutzman, 2014). Therefore, once a person's images are available online, whether voluntarily or as the result of someone else's actions, FRTs can make it almost impossible for the person to exercise the option of revealing their true identity in one context but remain anonymous in others.

The security of devices that rely on facial unlocking features can become another point of vulnerability for user privacy. The relevance of the differential facial security standards available on different smartphones was brought to light in a study where the researchers found that 26 of the 60 smartphones that they tested were vulnerable to a "photo hack" -- the device could be unlocked using the phone owner's photograph instead of the real person (Kulche, 2019). This illustrates how, given the user profile and characteristics of the Indian market, reliance on facial unlocking techniques on low-end devices could create increased vulnerabilities for consumers.

Accuracy and reliability -- It has been a well acknowledged problem in the field of facial recognition that the results of the system are only as good as the quality of the images that are being run through it. The results are therefore prone to errors on account of differences in the conditions of the images being compared, in terms of appearance, expression, age, lighting, camera angle, etc. This is particularly true in cases where the technology is applied in non-cooperative settings, for instance, using images gathered from a CCTV camera or for real-time biometric processing. For instance, a study on the live facial recognition system being tested by the London Metropolitan Police found that out of the 46 potential matches identified by the system only 8 matches could eventually be verified correctly, indicating a success rate of just about 19 percent (Fussey and Murray, 2019).

Having said that, it is also important to acknowledge that the technical capabilities of facial recognition systems have been improving over time. For instance, 3D facial recognition systems have already managed to overcome many of the technical issues faced by prevalent 2D systems. As per the National Institute of Standards and Technology, the "best performing algorithms" in its 2018 Face Recognition Vendor Testing Program showed significant improvements over the 2015 test results, offering "close to perfect recognition" (Grother, Ngan, and Hanaoka, 2019). Yet, there still remain significant variations in the results among different algorithms and developers, with recognition error rates in a particular scenario ranging from "a few tenths of one percent up to beyond fifty percent".

Bias and discrimination -- The training data being used for FRTs also plays a major role in determining the effectiveness of their outcomes. Buolamwin and Gebru, 2018 have demonstrated how the commercially available facial recognition tools offered by companies like Microsoft, IBM and Face++ showed much higher error rates for women with darker skin tones. This difference arose primarily on account of the under-representation of data belonging to this group in the training dataset. Similarly, a study done by the American Civil Liberties Union using Amazon Rekognition found that nearly 40 percent of the false face matches between members of the US Congress and a database of arrested persons were of people of colour although only about 20 percent of the Congress members actually belonged to this demographic group (Snow, 2018). While most of this research has emanated in the US context, it is easy to draw some parallels with the challenges that would arise in the deployment of similar systems in the context of India's multi-racial, multi-ethic set up.

Research of this nature is valuable in that it can nudge appropriate fixes to the training data and algorithms. However, it has also been rightly pointed out that ensuring better demographic representation in data sets does not do much to solve the larger issues of injustice in the institutional contexts within which facial recognition is being employed (Hoffmann, 2019). For instance, Keyes, 2018 challenges the very premise of deploying automated gender recognition systems, which tend to reflect the traditional models of gender as being binary, physiologically based, and immutable. This works to the specific detriment of transgendered persons, who may not fit into these traditionally defined gender constructs.

Limitations of the supporting ecosystem -- Another important factor, particularly in the Indian context, comes from the realities of the surrounding ecosystem within which technologies like FRTs are sought to be introduced. For instance, the mandatory use of FRTs for marking attendance in rural schools would have to account for real world factors like power outages, network down time, availability of devices and prevailing power structures in the local community.

While these issues go beyond the technical capabilities of FRTs, or even the legal and ethical implications around them, it would be dangerous to adopt such technological solutions without accounting for these realities. Similar concerns have also come up in the context of biometric authentication using Aadhaar, and would continue to remain relevant if facial recognition were to be deployed in this context.

FRTs under the draft PDP Bill

Given the variety of concerns being raised by the deployment of FRTs, it becomes particularly problematic that all of these applications are taking place in the absence of a robust data protection law in India. While the current Information Technology Act, 2000 and the rules under it do classify biometric data as "sensitive personal data" and afford certain protections to it, it is widely acknowledged that the scope and enforcement of the law remain grossly inadequate. Moreover, the obligations under the present law are applicable only to "body corporates", hence excluding most instances where government agencies interact with biometric facial data. It is also worrying to note that there has been no public consultation on the adoption of FRTs in any of the different contexts discussed here nor any systematic evaluation of the costs and benefits of using this technology.

The current draft of the PDP Bill that was recently introduced in the Lok Sabha seeks to take care of some of these concerns by bringing the State along with other private actors who deal with the personal data of individuals within the scope of the proposed law, labelling them as "data fiduciaries". The bill requires that the "explicit consent" of the individual is required for any processing of sensitive personal information, including biometric data. However, it also allows for such processing to take place under other grounds such as an authorisation under law or a court order or judgment.

We have seen an example of such an order from the Delhi High Court which had in April, 2018 directed the Delhi Police to deploy FRTs for tracing missing children. This action reportedly resulted in the identification of close to 3,000 missing children by matching the images of missing children with a photo database of over 45,000 children living in various children's homes. While this was certainly a positive outcome, the episode also leaves us with several unanswered questions. For instance, what happens to the data of the children who were part of this exercise but whose data did not match with the missing children? Will their data be retained and used for other purposes? Could this include use for future investigation of criminal cases?

The other provisions of the draft Bill that are specifically applicable to biometric and sensitive data include a requirement of data protection impact assessment for large scale processing of biometric data by significant data fiduciaries and a requirement that a copy of all sensitive data needs to be localised on data servers in India. Further, the Bill also authorises the government to ban the use of certain forms of biometric data, except as permitted by law. However, there is no guidance on the actors against whom, and the circumstances in which, this power could be exercised.

While many parts of the current draft Bill retain the recommendations made by the Srikrishna Committee's draft that was submitted to the Government in July 2018, we see a sweeping departure from the Committee's recommendations when it comes to the processing of personal data for surveillance and law enforcement purposes.

The current draft of the Bill contains a fairly broad set of exemptions for the processing of personal data for the purposes of prevention or investigation of any offence or contravention of any law. Unlike the earlier version of the Bill, this exemption is not subject to the requirement of fair and reasonable processing of the data by the authorities. It also does not provide that such processing should be "necessary and proportionate" for achieving the intended purpose.

Another important safeguard that was suggested by the Srikrishna Committee was that any data processing involving the victim or a witness would ordinarily have to be done in accordance with the provisions of the law, including requirements like consent, purpose and use limitation, etc, unless this may prejudicially affect the case. By removing this requirement the current draft now offers a much broader canvas to law enforcement agencies. In addition to the exemption of certain types of processing, the PDP Bill also allows the government to completely exempt particular agencies from the applicability of the law on grounds such as security of the state, public order, etc.

To put these exemptions in context, suppose that an order under Section 144 of the Criminal Procedure Code, 1973 (CrPC) is imposed in a particular area directing individuals not to assemble in groups. Any person engaging in a peaceful protest could therefore find themselves acting in violation of the order and therefore the police may invoke the exemption under the PDP Bill to deploy facial recognition tools in order to identify the protestors. Given the wide scope of the facial recognition system being developed by the NCRB and the sweeping powers that are already available to the police to call for any "document or other thing" for investigation purposes, under Section 91 of the CrPC, the PDP Bill could effectively provide a free pass to the authorities to conduct mass deployment of FRTs on the protestors. This may include comparing the available images against the records gathered from a range of sources like CCTVs, student IDs, driving licenses, passport records, etc. This creates new barriers to the exercise of people's democratic right to protest.

In sum, the present draft of the PDP Bill offers wide ranging exemptions to law enforcement agencies, and can be regarded as effectively strengthening rather than checking the use of FRTs by the state.

Way forward

Facial biometric data is one of the most sensitive categories of personal data and therefore any adoption of this technology, either by state agencies or by the private sector, necessarily has to be preceded by the adoption of a robust data protection law. Assuming that a data protection law is brought about along the lines of the PDP Bill, it would determine the basic level of protection for the use of facial biometrics, including requirements relating to explicit consent, transparency obligations, purpose limitation and other usage restrictions.

However, the proposed data protection framework will not secure the degree of accountability that we need from the range of stakeholders participating in the implementation of FRTs. Firstly, a data protection law is not designed to compel the developers and vendors of facial recognition systems (as opposed to its users) to ensure transparency about their underlying models, training data being used, false positive and negative rates and other more granular information. Yet, information of this sort is necessary for there to be any independent checks and analysis on the accuracy, reliability and biases in the systems. We therefore need to look beyond data protection laws to find meaningful ways of ensuring transparency and public disclosure on the development and use of facial recognition systems.

Secondly, it must be noted that the PDP Bill only speaks to a few of the concerns posed by the use of FRTs, namely issues of data privacy and, to some extent, transparency. However, the broader privacy concerns posed by the technology, its accuracy limitations and biased outcomes still remain. Here it is useful to reiterate that with ongoing advances in technology, it is likely that many of the accuracy and reliability related concerns around FRTs might be overcome. However, satisfactory technical performance of such systems is only a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for their deployment. The use of FRTs has to be supported, in all cases, by a robust framework for gauging the suitability and proportionality of applying the technology in any given context and measuring the accompanying risks.

Finally, the wide ranging exemptions available to state agencies under the PDP Bill pose many specific concerns when it comes to the use of intrusive technologies like FRTs. In allowing for the sweeping application of FRTs for law enforcement purposes, the PDP Bill essentially condones the most pervasive and worrying use cases of FRTs. To be clear, such a use would still fall foul of the tests laid down by the Supreme Court in the Puttaswamy right to privacy decision. However, the language in the Bill lifts the statutory burden that should have been placed on law enforcement agencies to ensure proportionate application in each and every case and places the burden on petitioners to challenge the constitutionality of the application before a court of law.

References

Acquisti, Gross, and Stutzman, 2014: Alessandro Acquisti, Ralph Gross and Fred Stutzman, Face recognition and privacy in the age of augmented reality, Journal of Privacy and Confidentiality, 6(2), 2014.

Buolamwin and Gebru, 2018: Joy Buolamwin and Timnit Gebru, Gender shades: Intersectional accuracy disparities in commercial gender classification, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, 81:1–15, 2018.

Feldstein, 2019: Steven Feldstien, The global expansion of AI surveillance, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 17 September, 2019.

Fussey and Murray, 2019: Pete Fussey and Daragh Murray, Independent report on the London Metropolitan Police Service’s trial of live facial recognition technology, The Human Rights, Big Data and Technology Project, July, 2019.

Grother, Ngan, and Hanaoka, 2018: Patrick Grother, Mei Ngan and Kayee Hanaoka, Ongoing face recognition vendor test (FRVT) Part 2: Identification, National Institute of Standards and Technology, November, 2018.

Hoffmann, 2019: Anna Lauren Hoffman, Where fairness fails: Data, algorithms, and the limits of anti discrimination discourse, Information, Communication & Society, 22(7), 2019.

IFF, 2019: Internet Freedom Foundation, NCRB finally responds to legal notice on facial recognition, we promptly send a rejoinder, 8 November, 2019.

Keyes 2019: Os Keyes, The misgendering machines: Trans/HCI implications of automatic gender recognition, Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction, November 2018.

Kulche, 2019: Peter Kulche, Facial recognition on smartphone is not always safe, Consumentenbond, 15 April 2019.

Marda, 2019: Vidushi Marda, Facial recognition is an invasive and inefficient tool, The Hindu, 22 July, 2019.

Snow, 2018: Jacob Snow, Amazon’s face recognition falsely matched 28 members of congress with mugshots, American Civil Liberties Union, 28 July, 2018.

 

The author is a Fellow at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi. She would like to thank Ajay Shah, Ambuj Sagar, Apar Gupta, Christopher Slobogin, Elizabeth Coombs, Salil Tripathi, and an anonymous peer reviewer for valuable inputs and comments on the Data Governance Network paper titled Adoption and regulation of facial recognition technologies in India: Why and why not?, which forms the basis for this blog post.

Thursday, December 26, 2019

Announcements

Job Opening

The Esya Centre is inviting applications to join the Centre as a full-time Fellow (Economist - Research and Policy).

The Esya Centre aims to generate empirical research and inform thought leadership to catalyse new policy constructs for the future. It simultaneously aims to build institutional capacities for generating ideas which enjoin the triad of people, innovation and value, consequently helping reimagine the public policy discourse in India and building decision-making capacities within government. Esya invests in ideas and encourages thought leadership through collaboration. This involves curation of niche and cutting-edge research, and partnerships with people, networks and platforms. Moreover, it prioritises multi-disciplinary research to engender "research clusters", through which practitioners and researchers collaborate.

Some recent examples of our work:

  1. Shohini Sengupta and Aishwarya Giridhar, Contemporary Culture and IP: Establishing the Conceptual Framework
  2. Megha Patnaik, Policy Uncertainty in Indian e-commerce

The Fellow is expected to undertake research that informs policy. The broad areas of research towards which the Fellow will contribute are: innovation, competition, copyright and IPR; labour and productivity; technology regulation; and online markets in India. The Fellow will work collaboratively with other research staff at Esya and the Esya network, which connects diverse specialisations. The primary goal is to provide an economic perspective of the themes being explored. The fellow is expected to activity participate in disseminating research output and leading new research initiatives and collaborations.

Preferred skills and qualifications

  • Master's in Economics with at least four years of experience or a PhD;
  • Demonstrable interest (as ascertained from high-quality published articles or working papers) in network and platform markets, economics of innovation and technology policy;
  • Excellent writing, analytical and communications skills;
  • Proficiency in computer skills, information databases;
  • Ability to mentor juniors and work in a team; and
  • Ability to work under time pressure and to juggle multiple tasks within tight deadlines.

How to apply

Please email your CV, covering letter, and a writing sample to contact@esyacentre.org with the email subject heading, "For the Fellow (Economist) Position".

Wednesday, December 25, 2019

A glitch in the payments at the U2 concert, and lessons for design principles

by Sanjay Jain, Rajeswari Sengupta, Ajay Shah.

On 15 December 2019, for the first time, U2 was to perform in Bombay. The organisers of the concert came up with an elegant vision for how 50,000 people would be fed: This would be done through an all-electronic payments process.

It was supposed to be all pretty and perfect. Along with the tickets, everyone got a card that contained an RFID tag. The card had to be activated by scanning the inbuilt QR code using the android QR code app. This took customers to a URL. On the website customers were required to register (with a name, phone number etc) and then pre-load the card. It was announced that the pre-loading could be done exclusively via a particular payments app. Once this step was completed, customers would need to tap their cards at any of the physical kiosks at the venue in order to update the card with the online balance.

Front

Back

Customers were informed that food and beverages could only be purchased at the concert venue using the RFID card, no refunds would be available and that there would be physical kiosks at the venue for topping up the cards. While those counters would accept both cash and cards for payment, the food and beverage sellers would only accept the RFID card.

Thus, a key part of the design vision was coercion of the customer by forcing all payments for purchases to be done only through one mode.

Failures in consumer protection


The cashless monopoly electronic payments mechanism had unhappy features from the viewpoint of a consumer. The design was complex, requiring customers to first do an online transaction for loading the RFID card and then a physical transaction at the venue for getting the amount to the card, even before the card could be used for purchases. In other words, two additional steps were required to potentially save time during a future purchase transaction.

The minimum recharge amount for the card was Rs.500. Customers were forced to do this without any upfront knowledge about the prices of the goods sold at the venue.

To load Rs.1000 into the wallet, the customer was charged a fee of Rs.100. On this fee, there was a GST of 18%, so the payment went up to Rs.1118. This was a total cost to the consumer of 11.8%, as compared with paying cash.

To add insult to injury, the money left on the card was not refundable. What was not spent would be confiscated by the payments vendor. Customers were thus required to estimate their expenses without knowing the prices of the goods up front. This disrupted the biggest benefit of digital payments i.e. the ability to make a purchase without planning for it beforehand.

Even in the best case scenario where the design envisioned by the organisers worked, customers were left with an experience worse than a cash payment, for a significantly higher price. Even in its conception, this was not a very attractive grand scheme.

Failures in system operation


In the event, the grand scheme collapsed because it just did not work. There rapidly emerged two classes of customers at the venue.

One class was represented by customer X who had pre-loaded the RFID card with Rs.500 using the app before arriving at the concert venue. At the venue she found that her F&B spend would be (say) Rs 1000. Despite having taken the trouble of registering and pre-loading the card prior to the concert, she now had to stand in two long queues at two separate kiosks: one to first update the card so that the online transaction of Rs 500 was fed into the card, and the other to top-up the card with Rs 500 so that she could make her F&B purchases.

There were thousands of such customers who went from one queue to another even before their registered cards could be used. The queues at the payment counters soon became longer than the queues at the F&B counters.

The other class was represented by customer Y who had not registered or activated her card before the concert. At the venue she had to first activate her RFID card using mobile data connectivity, load the minimum amount of Rs.500 online, and then stand in the queue to update the card so that she could use it for purchases. In case she wanted to top-up the card, she would have to stand in the queue again.

Given the large fees (11.8% plus the possibility of non-refund), users were careful to avoid putting too much money into the card, and thus ran the risk of undershooting.

At first the hassles were only about standing in multiple queues. Things got worse when the systems at the kiosks for updating the registered RFID cards stopped working. This meant that thousands of customers who had pre-loaded their cards could neither use their cards to make purchases nor get refunds.

The venue was swamped with a large number of queues for one thing or another.

The mobile data network crashed at the venue with thousands of people trying to access it. This meant that thousands of customers who had not pre-activated their cards, were unable to do so, let alone update the same and use for purchases.

Despite the utter chaos, the merchants inside the stadium stood firm, in unison, in refusing to sell goods to the customers using any other payment mechanism.

The net result was that thousands of people were left without food and beverages despite possessing all reasonable modes of payment and despite there being multiple merchants selling the desired items. Money -- the bridge between buyers and sellers -- broke down due to the framework of coercion around only one technical standard that was permissible.

This was a mess-up at multiple levels:

  • Poor product experience, requiring multiple redundancies such as to transfer from online payment to the RFID tag,
  • Poor planning on the part of the organisers and not factoring in the possibility of collapse of data network at a venue filled with thousands of data users,
  • Fleecing of the customers with a steep 10% load charge and forfeiting unused balances,
  • Coercion of customers by not giving them alternative payment options.

Learning about design principles from this episode


Many an engineer can come up with a grand scheme that sounds nice. For an engineer, it is easy to build, and easy to work with simple monolithic systems that are designed by someone and imposed on everyone. The engineer's job is easier, operating in such a world, than in the messy real world of multiple technologies. However, social systems and the interactions of a large number of people are complex, and the best laid plans of designers are likely to go awry.

We are in favour of innovation, and trying out shiny new ideas. Offline instant digital payments through RFID tags sounds like a great idea, particularly when you anticipate a crowd and poor network conditions. However, innovations can and do fail. The wise path is to never have a single point of failure, to always ensure that customers can access other options, that the failure is not as damaging as it was at the U2 concert. Payment is an enabler, and not the final product, and when the payments system actually hampers transactions, it is a tragedy.

The problems of a single centrally planned solution, inside one stadium, help us in thinking about central planning more generally. Each new innovation must face the market test. It is always better to have organic evolution, where many rival solutions slug it out in the marketplace, with no coercion that helps or hinders any one solution. This will give more robust solutions (no single point of failure), let the market evolve towards numerous solutions that fit numerous work environments (e.g. decentralised data works better when communications systems break down, centralised data has its own advantages for certain situations, etc), and prevent any one vendor from ripping off the consumer. It is good to have competition between multiple technologies, and multiple technology choices that fit the very diverse array of use cases that are seen in India.

We have traditionally extolled the role for cash as a way to protect individual privacy and freedom. We must also respect the remarkable UX of physical cash transactions, and contrast this with the hoops that many digital schemes want to force consumers to jump through. The cashless dystopia of the U2 concert teaches us that cash has one more important function: In a disaster zone where IT infrastructure has broken down, cash is the way to get transactions done. Physical pieces of paper will be important for a long, long time.



Sanjay Jain is at CIIE.CO, IIM Ahmedabad.  Rajeswari Sengupta is a researcher at IGIDR, Bombay. Ajay Shah is a researcher at NIPFP, New Delhi.

Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Chennai 2015: A novel approach to measuring the impact of a natural disaster

by Ila Patnaik, Renuka Sane, Ajay Shah.

In November and December 2015, the city of Chennai in the Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, got heavily flooded owing to unprecedented rainfall. With a population of a little more than 7.1 million people, Chennai is one of the major urban centers of South India, and one of the four important metropolitan cities in India. The flooding is estimated to have led to the loss of more than 500 lives, and damages of about US $3 billion, making it the world's eighth most expensive natural disaster in 2015. In this paper we evaluate the impact of this event for households in Chennai.

Natural disasters, such as the Chennai floods, are important shocks which can influence all parts of the income distribution. In the aftermath of such a natural disaster, the issues of consumption smoothing, liquidity constraints and financial resilience play out. Natural disasters are important in their own right, as we need to understand more about the turmoil faced by households in such states of nature. All governments engage in redistribution in the aftermath of a natural disaster. This motivates research on studying the impacts of natural disasters. Natural disasters are also an opportunity to obtain insights into the economics of household, through observation of households when confronted with such a large shock.

Many researchers have gone into the field after a natural disaster has taken place, and produced evidence about health, income, consumption, and financial conditions in the aftermath of the disaster. But such research does not offer insights into the causal impact of the event as adequate information gathering about baseline conditions, before the event, is lacking.

When panel data about households is present, we observe households before and after the natural disaster. This makes possible the analysis of the adverse impact upon affected households, while additionally observing controls. The constraint in such research has been the time elapsed between two consecutive observations of each household. As an example, even if a panel is measured once a year, there would be many months of elapsed time between the two measurement dates that bracket a disaster event.

In a new NIPFP working paper, Chennai 2015: A novel approach to measuring the impact of a natural disaster we exploit the new opportunities for measurement which flow from the CMIE Consumer Pyramids Household Survey ("CPHS"), which measures a panel of 170,000 households across India. Each household is met with three times a year. There is thus a period of four months, across which the household is measured twice, within which each natural disaster lies. We setup difference-in-difference estimation where households in Chennai are the ``treatment'' group and unaffected households in the rest of the state of Tamil Nadu are the ``control'' group. As households in Chennai are among the more affluent ones in Tamil Nadu, the raw dataset has poor match balance, and we address this problem by also performing matched DiD analysis.

We investigate three questions. First, we evaluate the impact of a flood on household income and consumption expenditure. It is possible that a disaster leads to declines in household income and expenditures owing to the destruction. However, it is also possible that households increase their spending to cope with the disaster, or replace capital stock. For example, some household activities, such as cooking, would shift from internal production to purchases from external providers, which would augment demand for certain goods and services. Households would start buying goods and services for reconstruction almost immediately after the destruction. Large scale expenditures on relief and reconstruction by the Indian state would bolster the local economy.

We find that there was no statistically significant impact on household income during the flood months. Households in Chennai, however, saw a 32% increase in consumption expenditure relative to the non-affected districts. The largest percentage increases in expenditure were seen on health, and power and fuel.


A key figure is shown above. The dotted line is for the controls and the deep green line is for households in Chennai. In both cases, what is shown is the monthly expenditure per person. The vertical black lines bracket the flood events.

At the outset, the households observed in Chennai are, on average, more affluent than the controls. Roughly speaking, we do have parallel trends in the period prior to the flood. During the flood, there was a large surge in expenditure which runs for many months. After that, consumption went down, to a point where the Chennai households were now comparable with those seen in the rest of Tamil Nadu.

Second, we evaluate the variation in the change in expenditure for different households. The adverse impact upon persons who live in structures with inferior structural strength is likely to be larger. We categorise households as more vulnerable, or more financially constrained, through various characteristics such as not having a concrete roof, or not having modern finance (such as life insurance, mutual funds, equity market participation), or not having durable goods (such as ACs, refrigerators etc). We find that the consumption expenditure of the these weaker households increases by a smaller amount than those not financially constrained. This might mean more hardship, and a higher inability to cope with catastrophic events.

Third, we evaluate the mechanism that households use to finance the higher consumption. Households could either draw down their savings, or increase their borrowings to finance expenditures. Our analysis suggests that relative to the control group, fewer households in Chennai saved, borrowed, or purchased assets, in the period after the floods. This suggests that reduced savings and reduced purchase of assets was the channel through which the consumption surge was financed. In our data, after about a year, the consumption surge ended, and was followed by a further decline in consumption. This may be consistent with households refocusing on repairing their balance sheet.

Natural disasters kill around 90,000 people and affect close to 160 million people worldwide. The frequency and intensity of disasters are expected to increase with global warming. Greater understanding is required about how natural disasters impact economic outcomes, so that better public and private responses may be designed. The contribution of this paper lies in bringing new tools of measurement (panel data, three times a year, matched DiD) to bear on an important problem (natural disasters) and discover the phenomena that are at work. The novel estimation strategy shown here can now be applied for many natural disasters in India. Over time, a body of work can develop of this nature, through which more abstract insights can be obtained.



The authors are researchers at NIPFP.

Thursday, December 05, 2019

Announcements

Call for Applications

Ashoka University is inviting applications for the China-India Visiting Scholars (CIVS) Fellowship program.

CIVS is an opportunity for academics, policy experts, and professionals who are interested in expanding their current research to include China. The fellowship is aimed at creating more knowledge about China in India and encourage academic exchange of early- and mid-career scholars. This is a fully-funded fellowship that will provide 10 Indian scholars, who have had limited to no experience with China, the opportunity to develop an understanding of China’s experience and include it in their research.

The theme for 2020 is Economics and Development. This fellowship is ideal for scholars who are researching or working under the umbrella topic of economics and development, including (but not limited to) agricultural, urban development, education, vocational training, energy management, governance and performance management, rural poverty alleviation, food security, environment, public health, innovation infrastructure, and other similar areas, and are interested in developing a deeper understanding of China. Fellows can partner with an institution of their choice, or tap into Ashoka's network of institutions, which includes the National School of Development (Peking University, Beijing), Institute of New Structural Economics (Peking University, Beijing), Center for China and Globalization (Beijing), NYU Shanghai (Shanghai), HSBC Business School (Peking University, Shenzhen), Tianjin University of Finance and Economics (Tianjin), and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Hong Kong).

The fellows will be guided and mentored by a Fellowship Committee, which includes top economists and China Studies scholars in the country. The fellowship runs for 9 months, includes a visit to China where fellows will work with a counterpart who is researching in a similar area of study, and concludes in a seminar in December 2020. The fellows have the flexibility to continue working at their current position while pursuing this fellowship.

More details about the fellowship and application available on the link above. Applications will be open until February 15, 2020.

Why China

The partnership between China and India is arguably becoming one of the most important partnerships of the 21st century. Both countries, with their massive populations, economies, and environmental impact, have outsized effects on the trajectory of global affairs. Given all of this and the shared 3,380 km border, there is still little understanding in India about China, and in China about India. If there were a prime moment to understand each other, this would be it.

For any questions, contact suhail.thandi@ashoka.edu.in

Saturday, November 16, 2019

In Service of the Republic: The Art and Science of Economic Policy, by Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah

In Service of the Republic: The art and science of economic policy, by Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah, Penguin Allen Lane, 2019.

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As a $3-trillion economy, India is on her way to becoming an economic superpower. Between 1991 and 2011, the period of our best growth, there was also a substantial decline in the number of people below the poverty line. Since 2011, however, there has been a marked retreat in the high growth performance of the previous two decades.

What happened to the promise? Where have we faltered? How do we change course? How do we overcome the ever-present dangers of the middle-income trap and get rich before we grow old? And one question above all else: What do we need to do to make our tryst with destiny?

As professional economists as well as former civil servants, Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah have spent most of their lives thinking about and working on these questions. The result: In Service of the Republic, a meticulously researched work that stands at the intersection of economics, political philosophy and public administration. This highly readable book lays out the art and the science of the policymaking that we need, from the high ideas to the gritty practicalities that go into building the Republic.




Nandan Nilekani: One of the most significant works on India's economic policies, this brilliant prescription for the country's future by two practitioners could not have come at a better time. Dr. Kelkar has played a role in many major financial reforms since liberalisation. What is most alluring about the book is its approach of tackling difficult economic concepts and making them accessible and engaging for the lay reader. A must-read for everyone.

Bibek Debroy: Two respected economists, who have worked in government and for government, have produced a remarkable and wonderful book, examining government, governance and state intervention in a charming and reader-friendly way. A book in the service of every citizen.

Pratap Bhanu Mehta: This marvellous book is a wonderful guide to thinking about public policy. It combines three things that rarely come together: clear analytical thinking on first principles, a good sense of historical judgement and a commitment to the values of freedom and fairness. It is the work of masterly professionals making their thinking accessible to a wider public.

Avinash Dixit: Kelkar and Shah have written a masterly book, combining in-depth personal experience and sound economic principles. With simple language and vivid examples, they offer many home truths about the why, when, what and how of policy, and even more important, when to do nothing. I hope India listens.