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Showing posts with label media. Show all posts
Showing posts with label media. Show all posts

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Does synchronization of elections matter? Evidence from India

by Vimal Balasubramaniam, Apurav Yash Bhatiya and Sabyasachi Das.

Many countries across the world hold elections for multiple levels of the government on the same day. Examples include the United States, Brazil, Sweden, South Africa, Indonesia, among others. Importantly, there has been an increasing demand to synchronize elections across tiers of governance in both Europe and India. In India, the Law Commission, and other bodies, highlight that elections are expensive and find that "holding simultaneous elections would be ideal as well as desirable". The implicit assumption in these discussions is that the question of when voters make decisions about their national and state representatives may not affect how they make these choices and consequently, the election outcomes that emerge from them.

In our research, we examine whether synchronized elections in India lead to significant changes in voter behaviour. We refer to an election in India as synchronized if the national election (or general election, GE) and the state election (or, assembly election, AE) occur on the same day. Otherwise, we say that the elections are non-synchronized.

Specifically, we ask the question how the probability that the same political party wins a seat at the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha changes when elections are conducted on the same day as opposed to on different days. For this, we compare the same assembly constituency over time with synchronized elections against those that happened on different days. For non-synchronized elections, we pair a national election with state elections that occurred after it and before the next national election.

We find that synchronized elections increase the probability that the same political party wins a seat both at Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha by 0.089, which is about 21% of the base probability of 0.42. One concern about interpreting this estimate as an effect due to synchronization is that a long time gap between national and state elections for non-synchronized elections may confound our ability to pin down a plausible causal interpretation of this estimate. We vary the time gap between the elections in any given pair of national and state elections from 150 days to 270 days, and our estimates range from 0.15 (for 150 days) to 0.082 (for 270 days). The estimates are, however, not statistically significantly different from each other. Our preferred specification is the one that limits the time-gap to 180 days -- an estimate closer to the lower bound that we find -- to account for qualitative reasoning that provides plausible exogeneity in the scheduling of elections.

Figure 1 below highlights the approach we take to this study with heat maps for the probability of the same party winning both the parliamentary and state constituencies without (Case 1) and with (Case 2) synchronized elections. Synchronized elections increase the probability of a political party winning both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seats. We show this for the ten states that fall within our sample for our preferred estimate. With the exception of Odisha – which has an opposite pattern – all other states in our sample present an increase in the likelihood of electing the same party.



Case 1: Unsynchronized Elections


Case 2: Synchronized Elections
Figure 1: Prob (Same Party winning both PC and AC)

This significant consequence of synchronized elections may not occur in isolation. We characterize the voting environment and find that the winning margin in any given contest at a constituency is on average no different between synchronized and non-synchronized setup. However, there is an increase in turnout for national elections to level with the average turnout for state elections during non-synchronized elections. This suggests that the fraction that participates in state elections is in general much higher than in national polls.

We explore the potential channels that drive this significant effect of synchronization. We find that synchronized elections reduce split-ticket voting -- the Euclidean distance between the vector of vote shares of political parties in parliamentary and assembly constituencies is significantly lower in synchronized elections. This reduction in split-ticket voting could be both demand and supply-driven.

On the supply side, political parties could homogenize information sets and hold similar campaigns for the two elections when they happen on the same day. They could manage greater engagement with voters on the ground due to economies of scale with campaign resources during synchronized elections. Both these factors could align a voter to a single party. On the demand side, it may be that the cognitive demand to rationalize voting for two different parties in the two elections when they vote for them at the same time is high. This increase in decision complexity may give rise to voting for the same party when elections are synchronized. To explore these motives, we use national and state election survey data collected by CSDS for a representative sample of individuals compiled within two days after every election in India.



Panel A: Voters Decision


Panel B: Election Priorities


Panel C: Voting Consideration


Panel D: Election Issues
Figure 2: Micro-data Evidence

We present the evidence from micro-data in Figure 2. We find that voters spend more time deliberating on elections when they are synchronized (Panel A), voters are less clear about objective functions for electing their representative for the two governments (Panel B). Additionally, we find that voters reduce the dimensionality of their choice by looking at political parties more than individual candidates (Panel C). Lastly, we find that voters are more ambiguous about the issue that matter the most for their choice of the vote (Panel D). These observations strengthen our claim that the cognitive challenges of choosing two candidates at once may not be a trivial constraint, especially in a parliamentary democracy where the elected representative matters to how the citizens voice their concerns to the state. And the objective function for the voter for the two elections is compromised with synchronized elections. Thus, we observe a rise in a simple solution of voting for the same political party during synchronized elections.

A critical reason for support to synchronized elections is the cost of holding elections. Holding elections on different days does have high electoral costs both for the governments to organize the elections and for the political parties to participate in them. The most recent General Election in India in 2019 cost Rs.5,000 crore or about 700 million USD.

Recurring elections not just imply more monetary cost but also the loss of governance time as politicians focus their time on campaigning and bureaucrats remain occupied with election work as opposed to implementing policies and public projects. The deployment of security forces away from their primary objective for electoral purposes also imposes further costs on the state. Lastly, the model code of conduct, it is claimed, affects public policy-making.

Such costs may reduce by holding synchronized elections had there been no impact on voter choice and decisions or on the real economic outcomes in India. Our results imply that a direct consequence of synchronized elections is synchronized representation. A growing body of work on political alignment provides mixed effects on real economic outcomes. Political alignment could increase the transfer of resources from the national government to subnational governments in India (Rao and Singh, 2003; Khemani, 2003). However, more recent work highlights that patronage networks and rent-seeking by local politicians may strengthen in politically aligned areas, leading to inferior public service quality. The development consequences of synchronized elections, therefore, are far from straightforward.

Our paper documents that when voters choose their representatives for Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha matter to election outcomes. The administrative gains from synchronized elections, therefore, need to be weighed against benefits from voters evaluating different tiers of government without any overlapping ambiguity.



Vimal Balasubramaniam is researcher at Queen Mary University, London; Apurav Yash Bhatiya is researcher at University of Warwick, UK; and Sabyasachi Das is researcher at Ashoka University. This paper was presented at the APU-NIPFP workshop Strengthening the Republic, January 11, 2020.

Saturday, June 07, 2014

My experiments with truth in the Indian capital markets

by C. B. Bhave.

Thank you, Bangalore International Centre, for the invitation.

I joined SEBI in 1992. SEBI was given statutory status in that year and was facing huge hostility from brokers. They thought that their freedom would now be curbed by the new regulator. In any case, they did not think that SEBI knew anything about the markets. Some parts of Government were also hostile to SEBI since they thought that their turf was being encroached upon. In 2014, SEBI is a respected regulator nationally as well as internationally. You must have recently read that according to a study carried out by IOSCO and BIS, Financial market regulation in India was rated among the top 6 in a study of 27 top markets.

In 1996, I quit SEBI and the administrative service to set up NSDL - a depository for keeping share ownership records electronically and for facilitating easy settlements. In 1998, the magazine Global Custodian described the Indian market settlement system as the worst in the world (in a study of more than 80 markets) but facing stiff competition from the Russian market for the last place! By 2001, the same magazine placed India in the top 10 markets in the world. These rankings are in sharp contrast to India generally being placed between 100-120 when 150 countries are compared internationally whether it be on health parameters or on poverty or on corruption. The examples of SEBI and NSDL show that we don’t always have to be among the worst, even though we may be starting there. SEBI’s journey from being a fledgling institution to an internationally respected regulator is both fascinating and instructive. It tells us first and foremost that notwithstanding the enormous challenges, reform and overhaul of huge structures is possible in India.

It appears to me that our resistance to change is on account of our being a risk averse society. We are quick to agree that the existing state of affairs in a given area is no good, but each suggestion for change meets with such a multitude of objections that the status quo appears to be the best option. We need to develop tolerance for failure. By trying to keep away from failure, we miss out on valuable learning. We overdo this to an extent that we lose faith in ourselves. We persuade others as well to lose faith in us.

In 1996, I made the decision to give up the administrative service and set up NSDL, the depository. It was an exciting challenge and it was crucial to further reforms in the market. It is amusing to recall what people said to me then. There were many who believed that the depository would fail in India. The conversation would run like this: "The US and Europe have depositories: we cannot be compared with them. That is a developed world. Singapore has a depository: Oh, it is also more developed and is just a city-state. Even Sri Lanka has a depository. It is a developing country. Yes, but it is again just a small island nation. China is setting up a depository. Where does China have democracy? How can you compare China and India?"

India seemed to be in a peculiar place where the problems associated with paper certificates could not be handled. At least do not give up the Service was the last argument. I had a problem there. If the depository was so likely to fail, how would I carry any conviction with the people I was to recruit? Would they be comfortable with a boss who had a safe harbor or one who would sail and sink with them? I had to burn my boats. The irony was that these were my well wishers telling me why the depository would not work. We, in India believe that we have a problem for every solution. There is a lot of truth in this humour. There is hope, however. Young people are an exception by and large. The India we see today is different from the India of 1996. We seem to be well on our way to `can do' from a position of `cannot happen'.

In July 1993, I was invited to a seminar to be on a panel that was to discuss some fundamental changes that the panelists expected to see in their respective areas. One CMD of a nationalised bank was presiding over the panel. I was the last person on the panel before lunch. As is usual in our seminars, I had very little time because earlier panelists had been generous with their interpretation of the time allotted to them. NSE was expected to start its operations that year and automation of trading was, to my mind the most exciting thing that would change the shape of things in the capital market. I was barely five minutes into describing the changes and the presiding officer declared that I needed to wind up in the next two minutes. I was disappointed but wound up saying that time does not permit me to say more. While the rest of the audience and the speakers made their way to lunch, a group of 15-20 youngsters sat me down and said they wanted me to complete what I was saying and wanted to interact with me. There is hope in the young.

Let me give you another example of how young minds work. We needed to set up our mainframe in September 1996 in order to meet our deadline of starting depository operations in November 1996. This was to be done in a building that was still incomplete. We needed to take the mainframe to the fourth floor. The lift was installed but did not have the lift inspector’s permission to be made operative. We did not want to bribe anyone. The mainframe could not be carried via the staircase. Youngsters in NSDL found a solution. We operated the lift mechanically to load the mainframe. We did not break the law and yet kept to our principle.

Reform can be a long and painstaking process. It is almost never a one shot exercise. SEBI identified `Badla' (a particular method of carrying forward the settlement of a trade by getting a lender to intervene) as one of the structural issues in the trading system in India. SEBI’s initial attempts to do away with Badla met with fierce resistance. So much so that the then SEBI Chairman was moved out! Badla was eventually reintroduced. Most people thought that the issue had been buried forever. It appeared that there would be no way that the Indian Market would ever be rid of Badla. However, there were many reasons why the Badla system was popular. These related to lack of many other legitimate facilities needed in the market. SEBI kept working on these issues. Finally, when Badla was done away with eight years later, there was hardly any murmur. Reforms need persistence.

The proponent of a new idea must take into account the reasons why the existing idea came about in the first place. It may have come into place because something else did not work. These linkages are important. If we act to take care of those aspects as well, reform will be so much the easier. Our market used to have very long settlement periods. Long settlement periods introduce avoidable risk in the market. Despite SEBI’s best efforts we found that delays could not be reduced to less than ten days. A modern depository system was a must before any further reduction could be attempted. Today India has a settlement system that matches with the best in the world. There are less than ten countries in the world that settle as fast as the Indian Market.

In capital market regulation, the regulators find that they will not hear the voice of the retail investors unless the regulator makes a specific attempt to hear them. The big corporations have access to media and the powers that be. They can make sure that their difficulties reach your ears. The intermediaries and the institutional investors are similarly placed. If special efforts are not made to reach out to non-institutional investors, there is a danger of missing out an important piece. This is a difficult job. The non-institutional investors are not very well organized. There are investor associations that serve as a fair proxy for this work. It can sometimes be a thankless job. If, in the process of securing the interests of investors, market intermediaries are hurt, you can face a lot of criticism and voices would be so loud that it would appear that your judgment was altogether wrong. It is important not only to stand firm but communicate your view effectively.

Acting for investors can be a difficult task sometimes. Let us say I am serving one lakh clients and I find a clever way of charging my clients Rs. 10 extra every month. The clients do not feel the pinch of that extra money and if I am clever they do not even know about it. In any case what does Rs 10 buy today? But my gain is Rs 10 lakhs a month. Now if a regulator comes along and stops this practice, I have a huge incentive to cry foul. I would brand the regulator market unfriendly, would advise it not to interfere in small matters and focus on issues of policy. What is the incentive for the man who gained Rs 10 to argue the opposite? Very little. So this may appear a thankless thing to do. Regulators need the will to go the extra mile and do it all the same. When we questioned banks about the float money in IPOs and tried to eliminate it, the situation was similar.

The intermediaries act as agents of investors. One would imagine that their interests would be aligned. That need not be the case. The regulator has to be alert to this. Once interests are misaligned, there will be mis-selling. Brokers routinely take the power of attorney from clients to trade in the clients' account and to debit their accounts when required. The broker gives an incentive fee to his employee based on the brokerage revenue generated by the employee. It is easier to maximise brokerage by churning a client portfolio, than by acquiring new clients and convincing them to invest in the market. This is not in the client’s interest. One might argue that regulators should not micro-manage by getting into the nitty gritty of incentive structures of the employees of an intermediary. It is a good argument, but fails to address the issue of misaligned interests. If the regulator does not address this issue, there is little chance that investors will be able to do much about it.

At times there is confusion about the role of agents. Let us look at mutual fund agents. Whose agents are they? They are agents of the fund manager because they earn their commission from the fund manager and the fund manager appoints them. They claim that they are also agents of the investor because they give advice to the investor on the appropriate scheme to invest in. But the investor does not appoint them nor does the investor control their payment on the basis of quality or quantity of service delivered. When you are the agent of both the investor and the fund manager, and the fund manager has appointed you, in whose interest will you act? It was clear that the whole theory of the agents acting in the interest of investors was just a theory. When SEBI abolished the entry load, we faced criticism even to the extent that we were killing the mutual fund industry. We had thousands of schemes, and constantly new schemes were being floated. This whole operation definitely worked well for the agents and the fund managers. It was not in the interest of the investors. It was like churning a client portfolio for generating brokerage.

One of the lessons we learned in NSDL was that changes like a depository system affect different elements in the market in varying ways. Unless one listens to these carefully and understands the affected party, we may end up with wrong answers. We used to address investors seminars all over the country to explain demat to them. One question used to come up frequently: "If your system is good and will provide excellent audit trail, why will people who have bought shares with unaccounted money join you?" Our initial reply used to be that we were setting up the system for law-abiding citizens of the country. We did not care if people who employed unaccounted money could not use the system. This reply satisfied us but some how did not seem to satisfy the audience though they would keep quiet. We decided we needed a better answer. We brainstormed. Our reply in the next seminar was that if all people with clean money came to the depository the tax department will just have to ask the companies the list of those shareholders who still have shares in paper form. They would be sitting ducks. This drove the point home. One has to speak the language of the consumer to win him over.

We quickly realized that while implementing such a large scale system you cannot achieve your ultimate goals by following a predetermined path. While you need to have an idea of how you intend to get to your goal, you must have the flexibility and humility to change course. On reaching one lakh accounts, when we analysed the pincodes in the addresses of the investors, we found that a vast majority was from Kerala. This was counterintuitive. Mumbai or the state of Gujarat would have been the logical candidates. We realised the reason. We changed the language of our literature and seminars from being merely in English to Hindi and eight regional languages as well. In a couple of years the balance was restored.

The moneyed and the powerful form a cozy club in India. The first rule is that you should mouth the principle of equality before law but must understand that this does not apply to the members of this club. If you act tough with small fry, there will be all round appreciation. If you, however, try to enforce the rule of law on the members of this club, there will be public appreciation and private anger. Retribution will follow. Lack of ethical values and morality in our public life has degenerated so much in the recent decades that it threatens our very core. Citing examples of aberrant behavior in other countries is just fooling ourselves to believe that here the problem is not all that severe. Earlier the unethical needed a place to hide. They carried out their activities covertly. Now, any talk of morality or ethics is seen as a mere fetish, an impractical virtue, an impediment in the path of the getting things done. It is not just that. We first transited from tolerating the corrupt to tolerating the honest. The corrupt are now saying that the honest are too much of a nuisance in this cozy world of give and take. Let us harass the honest. Even if they are foolish enough to fight back and win, the dishonest would still have achieved their goal. After seeing the harassment caused to these honest people, they hope that the succeeding people will not entertain any thoughts of behaving in this odd honest manner, Am I exaggerating? No. Things are so bad that one of the Supreme Court judges who recently retired had this to say:

There are matters pending with the court, but the pressure, tension and strain both of us have undergone is unimaginable. I can't explain. The pressure was reflected on my wife and family. I can't speak much on the Sahara case.

What would one's reaction be, when one hears this? We would be shocked, horrified and wonder `How dare anyone do such things vis-a-vis a Supreme Court judge?' Not one eminent lawyer. His comment was that the judge should not have said this!

A two judge bench had delivered a judgment in that case just a few days prior to this. The entire judgment is instructive and should be read in full. I am just referring to para 147 of the judgment:

The number of similar litigants, as the parties in this group of cases, is on the increase. They derive their strength from abuse of the legal process. Counsel are available, if the litigant is willing to pay their fee. Their percentage is slightly higher at the lower levels of the judicial hierarchy, and almost non-existent at the level of the Supreme Court. One wonders, what is it, that a Judge should be made of, to deal with such litigants, who have nothing to lose. What is the level of merit, grit and composure required, to stand up to the pressures of today’s litigants? What is it, that is needed to bear the affront, scorn and ridicule hurled at officers presiding over Courts? Surely one would need superhumans to handle the emerging pressures on the judicial system. The resultant duress is grueling. One would hope for support for officers presiding over Courts, from the legal fraternity, as also, from the superior judiciary upto the highest level. Then and only then, will it be possible to maintain equilibrium, essential to deal with complicated disputations, which arise for determination all the time, irrespective of the level and the stature, of the Court concerned. And also, to deal with such litigants.

If Supreme Court judges are saying this, you can imagine the circumstances under which regulators work.

That brings me to the point of the recent investigation launched by the CBI regarding the license granted by SEBI to MCX-SX for running an exchange to trade in currency derivatives. They say it is a preliminary enquiry so there are no charges; they are merely investigating. When I asked them what they meant by `a PE against Bhave and Abraham', they said it is an unfortunate use of words. Unfortunate indeed, but by whom and for whom? They leak news all the time. The only time they have come on record is to say `Why all this fuss when there have been no arrests or raids!' Do we expect the citizens of a free country to protest only after they are raided or arrested? The second statement on record is `Thousands of crores of investor money have been swindled by MCX and it was incumbent on the agency (CBI) to look at the very procedure of registration of MCX' by SEBI. This is ill informed and if not ill informed then ill intentioned. The money was lost in NSEL and not in the entity licensed by SEBI. To date, CBI has not revealed whether they are investigating anyone who sanctioned NSEL, the exchange in which people actually lost those thousands of crores. What is our remedy against this arbitrary behavior of an investigating agency? What does one do when they publicly say that the PE is against Bhave and Abraham and privately tell me that it is an unfortunate use of words?

I believe there is no remedy because CBI is an autonomous investigator and no one can question them. In our effort to free CBI from the clutches of the political executive have we gone too far and forgotten the issue of accountability? At last count, CBI’s rate of successful conviction on launching prosecutions is less than 5 per cent. Who questions them about this? We cannot, in a democracy, have an institution exercising coercive powers of the State without any accountability. This question needs the attention of the Government as well as the judiciary.

Is investigation and successful punishment to wrongdoers such a difficult thing? At SEBI we found that investigation and successful conviction is not a rocket science. Robust common sense, and an unbiased evaluation of the material gathered, can help you reach the right conclusion. We need to proceed not because we want to fix someone but because the evidence is against the entity concerned. I do not believe that competence is an issue. People can be trained. It is usual to blame the courts: that they are unreasonably strict in terms of the standard of proof required. That was not our experience. We did not lose a single high profile case launched by SEBI in those years. The inevitable conclusion is that lack of will and objectivity, and not the lack of skill, is the problem.

With such low conviction rates, the general public has lost any faith that the moneyed and the powerful will ever be punished. They, therefore, rejoice when raids are conducted and arrests are made. The society has come to see raids and arrests as a proxy for convictions. In the process we do not realize that if the agency raids or arrests an innocent person, he or she will also be seen as a black sheep by all of us. A raid or an arrest is only an aid to gathering credible evidence and not an end in itself. The agency has to be accountable for the rationale and the timing of the raid or the arrest. Such questions are rarely asked. The NSEL scam came out in the open in August 2013. CBI raided NSEL in March 2014. Our anger against the scam is such that, to us, the raid was the right thing to happen. Nobody asked the question as to what was gained by raiding an entity 8 months after the scam. Was CBI of the belief that the entity would have preserved incriminating documents for full 8 months so that CBI would discover them in a raid?

The whole system is so vitiated that pendency is used as a potent weapon. As long as CBI is investigating something the concerned person better not speak up, otherwise he will face the consequences. He will be denied promotions. If it is an entity there will be no permissions or licenses for the entity. If the government finds some officers’ honesty or outspokenness too uncomfortable, why not start a CBI enquiry or an income tax investigation against him? The chances are that the officer will keep shut. Attempts have been made and they continue even today to harass my colleague Abraham. Fortunately, he has spoken up, refusing to be cowed down. The investigation can remain pending for months or years and no one is answerable for the delay. Procrastinating is not only the norm today but CBI seems to be taking it to a new level. One of the questions they have of us is `Why did we not keep license pending when an income tax raid had been conducted against a related entity'! They want to elevate procrastination from a level of the tool of the timid or the crooked, to being a virtue. They suspect criminality when you do not procrastinate!

There is a section in the Prevention of Corruption Act that is the cause of most of the mischief. The government's attention has been drawn to it. There was some attempt at amending this section. Let us hope that the newly constituted Parliament will take it up as a priority.

Such is our fascination with raids and the details of what was found that we do not see beyond the raid itself. About a decade ago, there was a raid on a senior officer of the central excise department. There were details about how much cash was found in the raid and how it was difficult for the raiding party even to count the cash. There was also description of the moveable and immoveable property discovered in the raid. The officer was suspended. This is not uncommon. We needed to go beyond that. Firms had obviously paid off this officer for getting illegitimate concessions. How about reviewing the major cases decided by the officer in (say) five prior years and getting the firms to pay up what was legitimately due to the public exchequer? I made this suggestion to who ever I could approach in the Government. (I was not in the Government at the time). There was no appetite for this. Why? Your guess is as good as mine. Should we give up? I have not. I still make this suggestion to who ever will hear me. You are my captive audience today, so I am making this point to you.

When you are in authority and people appreciate you for meeting them at the appointed time, when they thank you for returning their calls and when they compliment you for your honesty and for owning up responsibility for your decisions you might feel happy. But may I submit to you, that these things should be a cause for deep reflection. The first two tell you how feudal our mindset is and how free citizens of this country still expect to be treated with disdain by the authorities. They are surprised and thankful that normal courtesy is extended to them! The other two make us wonder if our expectation of ethical behavior is so low that what should be normal behaviour is treated as a great virtue. Should public servants not normally be honest and ready to own up responsibility?

Despite all the gloom around us there are many in the country that have not given up. The recent appointment of the SIT on black money is a case in point. There were some people who did not give up the idea of bringing the tax evaders to book. They used the PIL route to get the attention of the Supreme Court. After some dithering and a change of Government we have an SIT in place. Notwithstanding some pundits who have already declared that nothing worthwhile will come out of this, I have no doubt that a process has been set in motion that will solve at least a part of the problem.

To sum up, ladies and gentlemen, I have tried to make the following points. The state of ethical standards and moral behavior in our society is really down in the dumps. We are in bad shape but we do not have to be that way. There is no reason for us to give up. Reform and improvement is possible. The progress made by us in the area of capital market regulation and infrastructure shows that things can be changed dramatically. Reform is a long and painstaking process. We can make our contribution by standing up for the right causes.

This talk was based on my own experience and observations. The challenge was to talk about my own experience but stay focused on ideas and issues. If I had talked merely about issues and ideas it would have sounded like homilies. If I had talked excessively about my own experience I would have committed the mistake of self-projection. I have tried to achieve a balance. I leave it to you to decide if the balance was right. Thank you for your attention.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Important work by cobrapost that illuminates high-powered incentives

The investigative journalism by cobrapost, their videos, and Monika Halan in Mint add up to an important story.

Most of us have enormous respect for the achievements of Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. But as Monika emphasises, there are also genuine problems there. We saw it first with the hard-driving mis-selling in recent years, particularly with ULIPs, and now we see it here, with staffpersons supporting illegal activities.

Ordinarily, a media outlet in India bringing such information out has to worry about brazen strong-arm tactics being deployed against them, such as filing of criminal cases. In this case, luckily, there is a certain decency about these three organisations which precludes such concerns. It is ironic that the Indian media vigorously reports on the misdeeds of civilised people, and tends to be silent about uncivilised people.

In India, most of us are reverential about the power of incentives. To make people work, we think, you have to have high powered incentives. We revere incentive packages, stock options, stock grants, which whip the staffperson into a frenzy of hard work.

Economists led this charge, starting with Jensen and Murphy, 1990. The notion that high powered incentives are a good thing came out of academia and went into the real world. But increasingly, it has become clear that there are problems. By 2004, Jensen and Murphy themselves were saying that we should be more circumspect about using high powered incentives.

A person facing high powered incentives tends to focus on one thing. There is an excessive pursuit of that one thing, and all other considerations tend to evaporate. Similarly, when there are quantitative goals alongside qualitative goals, high-powered incentives will generate a focus on quantitative goals and tend to crowd out qualitative goals. Employees of a bank that are given powerful incentives to hit targets for deposit growth (sacked if you don't, given a 100% bonus if you do) are more likely to try to pull in that deposit growth by hook or by crook. If the internal controls of an organisation are weak, then employees are likely to achieve their targets by dubious means.

For all of us in India, coming from a backdrop of socialism and State, it is natural to have extreme hostility to the absence of incentive for a civil servant to do his job. We have seen how private organisations have triumphed by giving employees more incentive. But it's easy for us to overdo this message. In many situations, I feel it's better to go from no incentive to low-powered incentives, but not all the way to high powered incentives.

These issues are widely discussed in the global debate. When we transplant these ideas into India, a big difference lies in the weak governance environment. Super-charged employees in private firms seem to be willing to break laws in their pursuit of profit. Since CEOs weigh the costs and benefits of unethical behaviour, we may argue that when, in a weak governance environment, the expected punishment is small, an increase in the gains from unethical behaviour (through high-powered incentives) results in reduced fairplay. 

This suggests two things. First, HR managers needs to be more sophisticated in how the objectives of an employee are defined. If we could be more nuanced in clarifying what the employee is to maximise, this could yield better results. The second issue is about internal controls. When internal controls are strong, they become a non-negotiable constraint within which growing sales or profit has to be done. Unfortunately, once the top managers of an organisation are really hard-driving, chasing growth and profitability, these kinds of niceties (of both kinds) tend to fall by the wayside.

One of the most important mechanisms through which we get high powered incentives is : an entrepreneur who manages a company with family members, and who has dominant shareholding. The one area where this gets us into the most trouble is: Finance. A series of papers that have analysed the Great Recession have found that financial firms where CEOs had more high powered incentives got into more trouble. I am a great advocate of less public sector and more private sector in finance, but we have to be cautious about high powered incentives e.g. those that go with dominant entrepreneurs in a family business.

A prominent example of this debate has been `financial market infrastructure institutions' (FMIIs), a category that comprises organisations like exchanges, depositories, clearing corporations, all of which produce public goods for the financial system. In all these areas, the organisation is unique in that, alongside the goal of maximising profit, there is a regulatory function. This tiny handful of firms is unique, when compared with essentially any other part of capitalism, in that some government functions of regulation and supervision are placed in private, profit-maximising hands. High powered incentives to produce profit or valuation will lead to a dilution or worse of regulatory and supervisory functions. If profit-seeking owners/managers of these organisations under-emphasise or abuse the regulatory and supervisory functions in the quest for profit, this has far-ranging externalities. Failures of regulation and supervision at exchanges have given macroeconomic crises in India in 1992 and 2001. Hence, even though the revenues and profits of these firms is truly tiny on the scale of the economy, this conflict of interest is an important issue for policy makers.

Similarly, there has been a vigorous debate about entry by private banks. As a working approximation, we have to assume that RBI supervision is less than perfect. In this case, I feel that we should be quite circumspect about banks led by entrepreneurs.

Sunday, February 17, 2013

How to improve freedom of speech in India

Most of us in India understand that there is a huge problem with freedom of speech in India. India now ranks at the bottom of the world on freedom of speech. Here is some interesting discussion on such facts.

For a sense of the zeitgeist, see an editorial and Lawrence Liang in the Economic Times. R. Jagannathan on FirstPost reminds us that judges in India are not intellectuals who will lead the way on this.

Public shaming

There are two ways through which things are getting better. The first area of importance is public outrage. Even if India has laws that hinder free speech, we should all speak up and establish social norms in favour of free speech, where the use of existing laws that support attacks on freedom of speech is just not done.

As an example, Vodafone embarked on legal bullying against one person, but backed away when faced with outrage.

A splendid example of this push back is IIPM. Recent events (link, link) should make IIPM regret having gone down this route. Speaking for me, I have not accepted and will not accept invitations from IIPM for speaking or writing in their publications, and I will be quite circumspect about resumes that carry the name IIPM. (This is my standard operating procedure for left tail organisations in India). If enough of us do this, it will establish deterrence.

Outrage matters. We should be naming and shaming the offenders and maintaining a hall of shame.

Fixing the laws

The real problem is the laws. Modifications are required -- large and small. We need to shift away from proscribing defamation, obscenity, blasphemy to a stance of supporting freedom of expression. Restrictions on freedom implemented through government control on the Internet need to give way to accepting freedom of the Internet. What is new in recent months is that the outrage has bubbled up to the point where many people are saying Let's go fix the laws:

  • An excellent television conversation between Shashi Tharoor and Karan Thapar.
  • Pratap Bhanu Mehta in the Indian Express talks about the unusual response of Omar Abdullah and a delicious quotation from Manish Tewari.
  • Suketu Mehta in the New York Times says that we must fix the Constitution.
  • Jay Panda, Lok Sabha MP, has begun working on private members bills that will fix the laws.

Small modifications of the laws will constitute elements such as: shifting defamation from criminal to civil liability, and having a provision where costs are always paid to the defendant if the accusation does not hold. Fundamental change will constitute fixing the Constitution.

Conclusion

Capitalism and freedom reinforce each other. Both require the ability to think (freedom of speech, freedom of thought) and the ability to act (to vote, to transact, to conduct business, to live). Achieving freedom requires pushing on both fronts -- on establishing a vibrant and open `marketplace for ideas' and on establishing freedom to act.

IIPM reminds us that apart from being a question of high ideas, this is a question of simple consumer protection. When a person thinks of getting a degree, he should have full information about the choices, and IIPM is trying to block that information. Similarly, consumer protection requires that for any publicly visible financial product or service, there should be an unrestricted marketplace of ideas, otherwise the ability of consumers to make wise choices is impaired.

In the best of times, liberal democracies suffer from too little criticism. If we are to make progress on dealing with the problems of corruption and runaway governments, the most important channel is high quality, pointed, trenchant criticism. The present laws are grossly out of touch with the principle of freedom of speech. We need to go fix that: first as a matter of social custom, and then as a matter of law. It appears that there is some movement on both fronts.

Friday, September 07, 2012

Indian capitalism is not doomed

India's problem of crony capitalism

by Ajay Shah.

The rise of modern capitalism in India in the 1990s was at first viewed in optimistic terms. A new breed of companies were born, who seemed to exhibit a new kind of competence, international competitiveness and high ethical standards. We could start putting our old mistrust of corrupt business houses behind us.

These hopes were substantially dashed by the fresh emergence of crony capitalism. Doing business in many areas in India involves an extensive interface with the government. In these areas, the weaknesses of the State generated an opportunity for crooks. At first, the financial system sent massive resources into dubious companies, with an attitude of being blind to anything but profits. When these companies controlled vast resources, and were shown the promise of even bigger valuations to come, they embarked on systematically undermining the State. Through this, we got a feedback loop: The crooks came up where the State was weak, and their activities further undermined the State.

In some cases, we saw rotten companies spring up in one part of the economy where the State was weak, and once these companies were up and running, they turned their attention to related fields and devoted themselves to undermining State institutions in related fields. Through this, the gangrene spread from one area to the next.

In the the early 1990s, we could hope that India would smoothly moving up to the ranks of middle income countries, powered by world class local companies in addition to global companies building operations here. These hopes have substantially receded. The heart of the Indian story is now about the feedback loop between rotten companies and the State. If we manage to bootstrap ourselves out of this, we have a bright future. But will be be able to bootstrap ourselves out of this? Many countries got mired in this `middle income trap': we shouldn't assume that our destiny is rosy.

At first blush, stopping the rotten companies seems infeasible. These are typically efficient and competent firms in a day to day tactical sense. They are staffed with hard-driving amoral people (typically incentivised very strongly using high-powered incentives), who fully understand the weaknesses of the system and attack it. Considerable resources are invested into subverting politicians, bureaucrats, judges and the media. The Indian system is rotten and ripe for attack. It's like computer criminals attacking Microsoft Windows. Resistance is futile. Indian capitalism is doomed.

There is, however, an array of homeostatic forces in place which are generating push back. Some crooked companies have faced enforcement actions by arms of the State. In some cases, India has had good discussions in the public domain which has generated checks and balances. In addition, while many people are devoid of ethics and will support the latest nouveau riche entrepreneur who is throwing cash around, a large number of people get revulsed by the sight of this, and quietly and doggedly refuse to cooperate.

Enforcement in India does not work perfectly. The key point of this blog post is that medium grade enforcement has far reaching implications. The key insight is to look at the way the goals of labour and capital (i.e. investors and employees) are reshaped by medium grade enforcement.

The perspective of the investor

The enforcement push back against rotten firms is yielding results. Many crooked companies have grossly underperformed the index. Some have experienced enforcement actions and have experienced jaw-dropping returns. Some have experienced dogged opposition from pockets of high ethics in the system, which have effectively led to systematic and sustained under-performance of the index over five- and ten-year periods. The stock market has become wary about ethical issues. As Shekhar Gupta says in the Indian Express yesterday:

If you draw a simple chart of the large companies that have lost the most value on the stock markets over the past three years, you'd notice that almost all of these were doing business on the same cusp of politics, finance and natural resources. To that extent, you have to admit that the market has been the first to sense the rot and has applied a stunning self-correction, severely punishing those responsible for it.

There was a time when investors used to be oblivious about ethical standards of portfolio companies. The attitude of the investor in the 1990s used to be I don't want to know how you do business; I will hold my nose since you stink; but as long as you will produce returns, I will happily invest in you. This attitude has been thoroughly broken. The investors who pursued such strategies have often been devastated. Even if you have only 10% invested in a crooked company, if you get -80% returns on it, this generates a -800 basis point returns drag on your overall portfolio performance. As a consequence, portfolio managers have started caring about the ethical standards of portfolio companies.

Enforcement does not have to be 100% perfect for it to impact on the decision making of investors. Even if there is only a 10% chance of getting caught and thus getting -80% returns, that is a big risk from the viewpoint of the investor. From the viewpoint of the investor: Why take the risk? Why not make a thorough analysis of the ethical standards of a company one element of the security selection process?

The problem of freedom of speech

Journalism is printing
what someone else does not want printed.
Everything else is public relations.

-- George Orwell.

India is supposed to be a liberal democracy, and a free press is supposed to write vigorously about misdeeds (link). By and large, this has not worked out as it was meant to be. On one hand, it is quite easy for the bad guys to corrupt the media. Whether this is done through gifts of shares to a media company, or through advertising and sponsorship, it is fairly easy to obtain a supportive media. In addition, defamation is a criminal offence in India: a legacy of colonial law that we have not yet been bright enough to undo. Putting these together, the bad guys have a nice combination of carrot (throwing money at the media) and stick (litigation).

Analysts and financial intermediaries are supposed to make a living out of spotting problems in firms. Here also, there is quite a bit of corruption which impedes speaking freely. Few are willing to go against the latest nouveau riche entrepreneur who is throwing cash around, including his efforts at buying respectability. The mainstream strategy is to participate in the gravy train, and look for ways to part the fool and his money.

This is a real shame: India should be much better than China in the role of freedom of speech acting as a check against corporations. However, the Indian media has largely caved in the face of carrot and stick: it is largely doing public relations.

At the same time, there is strong demand among investors for skills in identifying the crooks, given that this is an important investment fundamental. The problems of the conventional media and financial firms, which inhibit naming the crooks openly and in the public domain, has created a business opportunity in this space. Supply has come up to fill this demand; a new breed of companies has come up, reflecting this need. Examples of firms with these capabilities include Ambit Capital, Veritas Investment Research, Forensic Asia, and Espirito Santo. Numerous investors are building in this analysis into their portfolio process, and this is helping to channel capital away from dubious companies.

Foreign firms seem to be more prominent in this field of research and analysis from the viewpoint of ethical standards, because they are relatively immune to the problems of intimidation through courts and police in India, and because they are relatively cutoff from the reciprocity that binds everyone in the world of business in India. See Veritas' report on Indiabulls has put in contrast the research by India-based analysts in the Economic Times by Uday Khandeparkar. But even they are not immune to the problems of the Indian legal system. Now we have a new investment tool: sell shares of the companies that embark on such litigation.

The weaknesses of freedom of speech in India have thus emphasised a greater role for information processing and analysis away from Indian shores. I am reminded of what is going on in China, where some of the most important short sellers who are bringing out the misdeeds of Chinese companies are located abroad: it's too dangerous to do the same things within China. We in India are evolving towards a similar structure of information processing.

The perspective of the employee

In the modern world, a vital determinant of the success of an enterprise is the kind of people it is able to attract. Here also, at first, there was a relatively amoral attitude on the part of most young people: I don't want to know how you do business; I will hold my nose since you stink; but as long as you offer me the highest wage, I will join you. But over the years, it has been demonstrated that this is a bad strategy:

  • The sight of senior employees going into Tihar Jail has given out powerful messages to everyone in Indian companies that good people should not hang out with crooks.
  • The second phenomenon is reputational damage. It makes business sense for an individual to engage in fair play. I have been in recruitment conversations where a person is being discussed but his name gets shot down as he has not been careful about the company that he keeps. Birds of a feather flock together. I recently heard a senior person say: ``I knew XXX was a rotten firm when a bunch of corrupt people from SEBI joined it''. Low ethical standards in people and in firms go together; a cloud of mistrust envelops them.
  • Gradually, as regulators develop and refine the doctrine of `fit and proper' such people will increasingly suffer career damage. We aren't fully there in Indian finance yet, but it will increasingly be the case that a name is shot down for a CEO position because he was part of a team that was caught doing nasty things by SEBI or RBI.
  • These factors are particularly important for the best and the brightest. If you are the best and the brightest, why would you suffer even epsilon risk of going to jail? Why would you run with crooks if this could hamper your rise to CEO? Why would you suffer reputational damage, and not be able to hold your head high at your class reunion?

These factors are inhibiting the flow of talent to dubious companies. I know of several situations where a person was made an offer, and chatted about this with his friends, and turned it down. It was just too much of a risk to be seen in the wrong company.

Second rate people recruit third rate people. Once a firm is contaminated with a series of low grade staff at senior levels, it becomes increasingly hard to draw in top quality talent, which drags down capabilities all across the board.

I believe this is one of the factors which has generated systematic under-performance in the stock price of dubious companies. It isn't just the case that they are in danger of enforcement actions. It is also the case that on an every day basis, they find it harder to operate well given that they generally fail to recruit as well as their competitors.

How might Indian capitalism develop?

If the crooks had thundered ahead producing super-normal stock market returns, and attracting the best talent, I would have been truly gloomy. What is fascinating about the Indian story is that things have worked out differently. Some dubious companies have cratered with -80% returns over short periods. Others have generated substantial under-performance when compared with the index over 5- and 10-year horizons. The best people are avoiding rotten companies. Putting these together, the bad guys are finding it difficult to obtain both capital and labour, which are seeking out better firms.

Wall Street tells Main Street what to do. At a time when the investors did not care about ethical standards of portfolio companies, and only asked for earnings growth, this sent out powerful signals into the economy (a) Favouring rotten firms and (b) Encouraging rotten entrepreneurs to setup firms so as to harvest the opportunities available by selling shares. We got a precipitous collapse of ethical standards in India in the last decade in India, partly because that is what a financial system that was oblivious to ethical standards was encouraging. Some of the most rotten companies rose to the top. Now that the investors and the employees are seeing things differently, this is sending out signals into the economy (a) Favouring healthy firms and (b) Encouraging healthy entrepreneurs to setup firms so as to harvest the opportunities available by selling shares. We will also see some chameleons turn a new leaf: You will see the oddest of characters preaching purity.

Vishal Kampani pointed out a remarkable fact to me: Some of the biggest successes of the last decade have been the old `Bombay Club' companies. All too often, they have outperformed when compared with the hard-driving unethical nouveau riche entrepreneur. What is going on? I would conjecture that there is a survivorship bias. A large number of different strands of corporate DNA compete. Over the long run, the survivors are those where elements of policy and strategy are of a certain kind. The old rich of the `Bombay Club' are not paragons of virtue, but they have developed certain good practices which are conducive to survival and stock market returns.

I am reminded of the mighty German Wehrmacht in the Second World War. At the level of tactics and operations, it was second to none. In the short run, it generated the most amazing achievements in battle. After the campaigns from September 1939 till December 1941, many contemporary observers thought that Germany was unstoppable. But at the same time, Germany was making profound mistakes at the levels of strategy and policy. No amount of operational art could overcome those fundamental mistakes in strategy and policy.

In similar fashion, we tend to get very impressed by the hard-driving take-no-prisoners nouveau riche entrepreneurs and their hypercharged sidekicks. Their dynamism and willingness to play dirty seems to be unstoppable, particularly given the weaknesses of politicians, bureaucrats, judges and media in India. But it appears that in India, these strengths in tactics and operations have often been unable to overcome fundamental mistakes in strategy and policy. Indian capitalism is not doomed.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Slavery is freedom

While many people in India think that we have freedom of speech, things are actually quite bad.

There are two well-respected global rankings in this field:

  • Reporters Without Borders has a `Press Freedom Index'. For 2010, they show India at rank 122 out 178 countries. In their ranking, Nepal and Jordan and Qatar are more free than India.
  • The other prominent ranking is by Freedom House. For 2010, they place India at rank 72 out of 196. In their ranking, Hong Kong, Benin and Tonga are more free than India.

Why are things so bad? The Constitution does not establish freedom of speech as a fundamental right. Laws of colonial vintage punish free expression, and new laws (e.g. connected with the Internet) have not shown a greater interest in free speech. Books are regularly banned, journalists or bloggers are regularly imprisoned or killed. It is a war zone out there.

See India puts tight leash on Internet free speech by Vikas Bajaj in the New York Times on 27 April.

I was hence quite surprised to see reporting by Sanjib Kumar Baruah in the Hindustan Times where he quotes the minister for information and broadcasting, Ambika Soni, as saying:

"Our media is probably the freest in the world"

It is bad enough to have a fundamentally flawed Constitution and laws where free speech is not enshrined. The least we can do in this unhappy situation is to recognise that we have a serious problem and go solve it. We are better off without such Orwellian claims.

Similarly, Amartya Sen, writing in the New York Review of Books notes that there is more free speech in India than China. Yes, there is. But should we get pleased when we are good when compared with one of the more thuggish states of the world? India needs to set its sights higher.

We like to think that while we're poor, we're one of the better democracies out there. Okay, if so, shouldn't we be atleast in the top quartile in international rankings of freedom of speech? That would mean getting to a rank of 45 (instead of 122) in the ranking by Reporters Without Borders, and a rank of 49 (instead of 72) in the ranking by Freedom House. To get there, we will need to first start by acknowledging that we have a problem, instead of engaging in triumphalism.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Monetary policy is easy; Financial regulation is hard

I wrote a column in the Financial Express today, titled Monetary policy is easy; Financial regulation is hard, where I contrast the complexity in public administration of doing monetary policy versus the complexity of getting to good financial regulation.

Saturday, April 03, 2010

Freedom of speech in India

Shekhar Gupta's column in the Indian Express today is about the incipient threats faced by freedom of speech in India.

In this ranking for 2009, by Reporters without Borders, India's freedom of press comes in at rank 106 out of 175 countries (top 60th percentile). We're in the company of Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Guatemala and Oman. Ouch! (In 2002, we were slightly worse: we were in the top 56th percentile). If you'd like to think about how this can be made better, an ideal starting point is their questionnaire.

There is a great piece by Donald Morrison on the Dreyfus Affair in the Financial Times. I often wonder whether India has the depth of commitment to human rights and liberal values to be able to achieve a similar outcome. At present, I'm not convinced. As Norman Mailer said: Democracy is a state of grace that is attained only by those countries who have a host of individuals not only ready to enjoy freedom but to undergo the heavy labor of maintaining it. At present, in India, I don't see that bunch of people who care about freedom and will safeguard it.

Authoritarianism vs. the Internet by Daniel Calingaert goes into the ways in which the Net increases freedom, and the way governments are fighting back. I got nervous when I read this description about some of the things that repressive regimes do:
Users are required to register with an ISP when they purchase internet access at home or at work, so that they cannot operate online anonymously. Customers at cybercafes have to present identification, and cybercafes install software to monitor and filter customers' web browsing. In Vietnam, cybercafe owners are required to keep a record for 30 days of all the websites their customers visit.
Do we do similar things in India?

The article by Calingaert led me on to this measurement of the freedom on the Internet in 15 countries by Freedom House. Their score shows:

RankCountryMeasure of repression
1 Estonia 10
2 UK 20
3 South Africa    21
4 Brazil 26
5 Kenya 31
6 India 34
7 Georgia 40
8 Malaysia 40
9 Turkey 40
10 Egypt 45
11 Russia 51
12 Iran 74
13 China 78
14 Tunisia 78
15 Cuba 90


I've seen the following pattern repeatedly: In measures of governance quality, India looks good when compared with China and Russia. So two of the BRIC countries really have a system of governance which is not comparable with that found in India. Far more interesting are the BSST countries -- Brazil, South Africa, South Korea and Taiwan -- which are democracies much like India, and have a lot of things done right in governance which India should learn from.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Investigating the deaths of journalists

Seven journalists were killed in India in 2008. There must be 700 who were intimidated in some fashion or the other. As an example, see my recent blog post on the fragile institutional foundations of free speech in India. Here is an inspiring story, from the US, about peers embarking on an investigation into the murder of a journalist. It is by Tim Arango, and was published in The New York Times.

Friday, February 13, 2009

Fragile institutional foundations of free speech

A few days ago, Johann Hari's article in The Independent was reprinted in The Statesman, a Calcutta newspaper.

This got the editor of The Statesman arrested. That the CPI(M) dislikes this editor is widely known, but a civilised country is one in which it's safe to be disliked by governments.

Read Hari's response (which appeared in The Independent), a blog post by Pratap Bhanu Mehta and a blog post on the `Law and other things' blog.

Since I'm a card carrying economist, I think about incentives. The bad guys think that such intimidation will suppress free speech. Do forward this to your friends so that Hari's article gets the maximal possible readership. If the bad guys see that such interference actually increases visibility for the articles that they dislike, this might reduce their incentive to behave like this. The Internet is the greatest weapon in favour of free speech in India, since there is no possibility of a Great Firewall of China coming about.

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

NCDEX vs. FMC

I wrote a piece in Financial Express titled Law and regulation shape the character of the regulated industry drawing on the recent court case filed by NCDEX against the Forward Markets Commission.

In the article, I describe this case in the context of the unique regulatory problems of for-profit exchanges [link, link]. I locate this discussion in the deeper problems of how weak legal and regulatory structures give out incentives for the wrong kinds of skills to succeed. While NCDEX/FMC/MCX is a live example of this problem, these issues are surfacing in many other areas such as telecom, electricity, etc, where malfunctioning government structures distort markets.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Crisis at Satyam

The recent fracas about Satyam Computers is a really fascinating story. Satyam (a computer software firm) was about to buy two real estate companies: a listed company named Maytas Infra and an unlisted company named Maytas Properties. They were going to pay roughly $1.6 billion.

This was a troublesome transaction from so many points of view. First, it would deplete the firm of cash. Second, it would mean defocusing the firm away from software towards real estate. Even if diversification into real estate were the goal, there were better acquisition targets around like Unitech. The case for buying these two companies seems to have been influenced by the shares held in the two companies by managers of Satyam.

Sounds bad? The cynic would say corporations make a lot of murky decisions, fumbling thorugh a variety of conflicts of interest. Indeed, all of management seems to be about overcoming agency conflicts. These kinds of malpractices have taken place in India for a long time.

This time, something new happened. A firestorm of protest broke out amongst shareholders -- particularly foreign shareholders -- and the press. The share price of Satyam crashed and the transaction was aborted. Here's the interesting media coverage:

I was reminded of Niall Ferguson's characterisation of democracy and capitalism as two strands of a double helix; both come together to give us well functioning societies. A decade ago, the institutional shareholders would have been clubby PSUs. Without financial globalisation, foreign shareholders would have been missing. Without the free press that India has, the episode would have been buried in the back pages. In the event, India worked well, and Satyam was the cynosure of all attention on these days. On 16 December, there were just 36,000 trades worth Rs.49 crore for SATYAMCOMP on the spot market (i.e. "CM") on NSE. On 17 December, this jumped massively to Rs.1,340 crore off 0.7 million trades.

I think the most interesting questions to ask in this fracas are:

  • What were they thinking?? Why did they do this?
  • Did share prices show some action before the event?
  • How much value was destroyed?
  • What happens next?

Why did they do this?

One of the good approximations that's found in India, to the modern dispersed-shareholding corporation, is Infosys. They have 16.5% promoter shareholding. By these standards, Satyam has a remarkably small promoter shareholding of 8.6%. They have 61.57% shareholding by institutions of which 46.86 is made up by FIIs. There is a large ADR with 19.4% of the company.

With such a power structure, why were the managers so brazen? Did they not know that they serve at the pleasure of investors, particularly institutional investors and most of all foreign institutional investors?

A few days ago, I wrote a blog post Goodbye great moderation, hello financial fraud?. In this I argued that we might see an upsurge of illegal / ethical activities when businessmen have their backs against the wall. This perspective gives us some insight into why the managers of Satyam behaved the way they did.

What do we see in share price data?

A careful examination of share price fluctuations, net of industry index movements, is a valuable tool to understand the information that is available to insiders (who routinely trade or leak information into the Indian equity market). A comparison of Maytas Infra against the CMIE stock market index for industrial construction companies is instructive. From roughly 23 September 2009, the industry index and the overall Cospi dropped quite a bit. But Maytas Infra held up well. Even though things were very bad for Cospi and even worse for the industry index, Maytas Infra stayed put. Perhaps the people trading Maytas Infra knew that they had a `Satyam Put'.

Here's a summary of stock market returns on the products of interest:

Date Satyamcomp Cospi Maytas Infra
31 Oct 304.65 1304.96 429.95
16 Dec 226.55 1367.90 481.15
  Change -25.63% +4.82 +11.91
19 Dec 162.70 1396.43 246.40
  Change-28.18% +2.08% -48.87%

16 December was the last happy day. But by 16th December, while the overall Cospi had gained 4.82% when compared with 31 October, Satyam had already lost 25.63% and Maytas Infra had gained 11.91%.

By 19 December, Satyam had lost another 28.18% and Maytas Infra had lost 48.87%.

Note that the broad market index, Cospi gained in both sub-periods: It went up by 4.82% in the first phase and 2.08% in the second, adding up to overall returns of +7%.

How much value was destroyed?

Let's tote up the value destruction in the three days from 16 to 19 December. All values are in crore rupees.

16 Dec 19 Dec Delta
Maytas Infra 2832 1450 -1381
Satyamcomp 15227 10964 -4262
Total -5644

So in three days, the market value of Satyam dropped by Rs.4262 crore and if you add in the drop in market value of Maytas Infra, this comes to Rs.5,644 crore. But as argued based on the share prices above, the story probably runs deeper and share prices of both companies were in motion based on anticipation of these events prior to this. If we start at 31 October, the picture is:

31 Oct 19 Dec Delta
Maytas Infra 2530 1450 -1080
Satyamcomp 20524 10964 -9560
Total -10640

So over a date range in which the broad market gained 7%, the mistakes made by the managers of Satyamcomp managed to destroy Rs.10,640 crore.

What happens next?

These recent events have already been a path-breaking experience. In India, it is rare for owners to rein in managers in this fashion. But I suspect the story is not over. A few more path-breaking elements of the story might be in store for us.

  • What would you do with a manager who lost Rs.9,560 crore? I suspect that in most well governed countries, the manager would get sacked. It would be interesting to see (a) What the institutional investors of Satyam think, and (b) How the Indian legal environment deals with this. P. Vaidyanathan Iyer's article in Financial Express (linked above) is the first one to mention this possibility.
  • One of the consequences of doing an ADR is that the firm submits to US rules about investor protection. I am curious about the legal position of the managers of Satyam and how that aspect might unfold.
  • The firm is holding a remarkable amount of cash [statement]. Of a balance sheet size of Rs.8,800 crore, cash and bank balance is Rs.4,461 crore. The only reason for a company to keep retained earnings is if it will produce returns that are superior to the broad market index using this cash. If this is not the case, then the board of directors should insist that cash is paid out to shareholders who can atleast invest in an index fund and obtain the performance of the broad market index. It is better for investors to diversify rather than for firms to diversify.

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

My city of ruins

A tremendous amount has been written about the attacks in Bombay and on our response to them as a country. In Financial Express today, I have an article titled To block terrorism, look deeper. You should also read Pratap Bhanu Mehta in Indian Express, Robert Kagan in Washington Post, Strategic motivations for the Mumbai attack by George Friedman of Stratfor, The fatal delay that allowed terrorists to besiege a city by Edward Luttwak and this interview with Percy Mistry in Outlook.

If your tastes run to breaking your heart, see the amazing picture galleries by Alan Taylor at boston.com about these events: one, two.

One indictment of the low quality of the Indian media is that nobody in India did web pages that match these two galleries done by Alan Taylor in faraway Boston. In a similar vein, see this masterly reporting in India Security Faulted as Survivors Tell of Terror by Yaroslav Trofimov, Geeta Anand, Peter Wonacott and Matthew Rosenberg in Wall Street Journal. It is the first draft of a book on the Bombay attacks. It is the best single piece that I read which pulled together the chaos of information, put it in a chronological narrative, and told the full story. The Indian newspapers were focused on breaking one piece of information at a time, and Indian Express repeatedly scored coups of obtaining amazing information. But they never put it together into a fact-checked coherent narrative. We need more foreign newspapers in India.

I found many of the links above through a mailing list called Satin. Thanks, guys!

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Media and ethics continued

See People's media by Pratap Bhanu Mehta in Indian Express on 23 Jan, and the comment by Jayanth Varma on the previous post.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Murky ethics on the part of the media, and the firms they cover

Bennett Coleman, a very big media house, is onto difficult ethical terrain with a concept of `private treaties'. Here, they get invested in some companies, and then these companies get favourable media treatment. Their media outlets trumpet these stocks, hopefully a good IPO takes place, and Bennett Coleman makes a good return on their portfolio. The expectation of free advertising and glowing editorial treatment probably leads to their purchases of these stocks getting done at bargain basement prices.

See:

Sucheta Dalal says:

MoneyLIFE has in its possession a document to prove that journalists are being designated as champions for PT clients to tailor editorial coverage to enhance the value of these companies and TOIs investment. An e-mail by The Economic Times editor, Rahul Joshi (dated 29 November 2007), says, At ET, we are carving out a separate team to look into the needs of Private Treaty clients. Every large centre will have a senior editorial person to interface with Treaty clients. In turn, the senior edit person will be responsible, along with the existing team, for edit delivery. This team will have regional champions along with one or two reporters for help - but more importantly, they will liaise with REs (Resident Editors) and help in integrating the content into the different sections of the paper. In this way, we will be able to incorporate PT into the editorial mainstream, rather than it looking like a series of press releases appearing in vanilla form in the paper. He then goes on to name the PT champions for each region, who will advise the regional editorial chief to carry stories about PT clients. He also designates trouble shooters in each region, probably to ensure that no PT client is offended with negative coverage.

It reflects poor ethical standards on the part of Bennett Coleman to do such a thing. First, a question of fact: Do good papers in the world, such as New York Times, have private equity portfolios where editorial coverage and advertising are bartered in return for shares? Compare and contrast against the soul-searching that the New York Times has institutionalised on far more subtle kinds of conflicts of interest. I am curious about the role that law can play here. If the New York Times embarked on such a thing, would it be outright illegal? If it was not outright illegal, what else might go wrong for New York Times if they did such a thing?

The only saving grace lies in the fact that Bennett Coleman has put up their hall of shame, of firms who are willing to cooperate with such a scheme, on the web. Some names in there make no sense - e.g. I can't see how they can get a fabulous return on an investment in ISB. But many are recognisable targets of laudatory coverage.

I have often felt that in order to become a well functioning market economy, there has to be a culture of high ethical standards, a sense that certain things are just not done. While ethical standards require legal foundations, there is something about ethics which goes well beyond law. A go-getting atmosphere, where all kinds of behaviour is welcome, is a highway to becoming a banana republic. You may like to see something that I wrote in 1997, about how an atmosphere of low ethical standards induces entry barriers and hampers competition.

While there are signs of progress on the economy as a whole, in recent years, the scale of corruption in India associated with real estate and natural resources appears to be straight out of your worst stereotypes of a banana republic. CEOs have an incentive to do bad things: e.g. the stock market likes electricity generation projects which have locked down coal supplies, which favours entrepreneurs with a gift for manipulating the government. Ministers are rumoured to have become like Bennett Coleman, asking for shares in return for unethical actions. With natural resources and land, we are experiencing the well known pathologies of the `resource curse'. The only saving grace for us is that by now, the real estate and natural resource related sectors are a small part of the economy.

I'm not one of the proponents of the view that blogging fundamentally changes mainstream media. But in this one respect, I can see that it helps. The rise of the Internet in general and blogs in particular has helped to reduce the mindshare of Bennett Coleman. Blogs have helped make such murky practices more visible.