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Showing posts with label author: Akshay Jaitly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label author: Akshay Jaitly. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 01, 2026

Evaluating India's Energy Ambitions: Evidence from Electricity Generation Project-Level Data

by Upasa Borah, Akshay Jaitly and Renuka Sane.

India's electricity demand has been growing rapidly, at 9% per annum since 2021. Meeting this demand by 2030 would require around 777 GW of installed capacity, as estimated by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). At the same time, India has committed to achieving 500 GW of installed non-fossil capacity by 2030. A study by CEEW (2025) finds that meeting this target would require adding around 56 GW of non-fossil capacity every year between 2025 and 2030, failing which India would need an additional 10 GW of coal-based capacity to meet future demand. There is little doubt that renewable energy in India has seen a sharp growth, with 74 GW in 2018 to 162 GW by the end of 2024 (excluding large hydro and nuclear projects), driven by falling renewable energy prices, and policy support like subsidies for developers, waivers on inter-state transmission charges, Green Energy Corridor investments, changes in Green Open Access Rules and various state-level initiatives that signal policy commitment to the sector. In 2025 alone, the country added 45 GW of renewable capacity.

However, the next phase of the transition is likely to be more complex. India is now facing new challenges regarding grid integration and transmission infrastructure, leading to delays in commissioning projects and curtailment of operational projects. As of June 2025, around 50 GW of awarded renewable capacity was stranded due to a lack of buyers, transmission constraints or disputes over land and environmental clearances. This results in time and cost overruns, dampening investor confidence.

In this backdrop, our paper Evaluating India's Energy Ambitions: Evidence from Electricity Generation Project-Level Data studies how electricity generation projects evolve from announcement to completion. Using project-level data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) CapEx database, we analyse 8,540 projects announced between January 1957 and December 2024 to understand how project size, cost, ownership, energy technology and location influence project timelines. We ask,

  1. How many projects have been announced and of them, how many have been implemented and completed? What is the time taken?
  2. Given the projects currently in the pipeline, how likely is India to meet the 2030 targets?
  3. How do factors like project size, geography and developer characteristics influence the completion timelines and probabilities?

From announcement to completion

We find a significant divergence between projects announced and completed: of the total announced conventional (CE) and renewable (RE) capacity, only 15% and 9% have been completed, respectively. Announcement here refers to events like signing of MoUs, inviting bids, seeking approvals or preparing feasibility reports and may differ from official statistics that use alternative definitions of project status (Borah et al., 2025). The next stage in a project lifecycle is beginning implementation, which includes events like awarding contracts, securing financing, obtaining approvals or beginning construction, indicating a deeper commitment of resources. Even among this set of projects that have been implemented, completion rates remain low: 30% of CE and 22% of RE capacity have been completed. The timelines from announcement to implementation and implementation to completion vary significantly among different technologies, with solar and wind having the shortest timelines.

How much capacity will be added by 2030?

We used an accelerated failure time survival model to estimate the completion probabilities of projects currently in the pipeline (i.e. announced or under implementation as of December 2024). Applying a probability threshold of 0.5, i.e. excluding projects with less than 50% chance of completion by 2030, and scaling our dataset to match the capacities reported by the CEA, we find that India is likely to fall short of its capacity targets.

If the current completion trends continue, total installed capacity would fall short of the 777 GW target by around 56 GW for CE and 45 GW for RE. Similarly, for the 500 GW non-fossil target, the projected shortfall is around 77 GW. It is important to note that our analysis does not include new projects that may be announced after 2024. In that sense, our findings imply that meeting the 500 GW target would require announcing and completing 77 GW of projects within the next six years.

Explaining the capacity additions

We find that project characteristics play an important role in influencing implementation and completion timelines:

  • Project size: Larger projects take longer to begin implementation and get completed.
  • Ownership: Privately developed projects tend to be completed faster.
  • Developer ranking: For RE projects, those developed by top firms (by market share) perform better.
  • Location: RE projects in certain states such as Gujarat, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh complete faster than those in states with weaker RE ecosystems. Location is less important for CE projects.
  • Year of announcement: RE projects announced after 2022 have longer implementation timelines compared to those announced before 2018.

These findings hold taking into account disruptions caused by the COVID-19 lockdown, which we explicitly model.

Finally, we compare completion timelines of large-scale solar and wind projects across states with benchmark timelines in the literature and find that even in RE-rich states, large projects face delays in commissioning.

Taken together, our findings suggest that the challenge is not just the announcement of new capacity but ensuring projects are implemented and completed on time. Bridging this gap will be critical to meeting India's future energy goals.


The authors are researchers at TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation.

Friday, March 07, 2025

Electricity reforms in the economic strategy of Tamil Nadu

by Akshay Jaitly, Renuka Sane, Ajay Shah.

Electricity is important for economic growth and for India's path to decarbonisation. The field of electricity is deeply sub-national; conditions in each state are different and require ground-up thinking. In a new working paper, Electricity reforms in the economic strategy of Tamil Nadu we make the following arguments:

  1. Electricity investments in Tamil Nadu have faltered, and the lack of electricity availability could hamper growth. Tamil Nadu used to be the leader in renewables investments, but these have stalled in recent years.
  2. The argument that the state electricity system could just buy electricity -- and doesn't need to generate it -- has limitations. If the discoms find it difficult to pay investors on time, they will likely have difficulties paying out-of-state generators on time as well, and those firms will be swift to cut off supplies. Also, there have been instances when state governments have banned the sale of electricity to out-of-state buyers. Such events impede the purchase of electricity from out-of-state when the market is tight.
  3. Given that Tamil Nadu is an export-oriented economy, renewables are an important part of its economic strategy, because exporters are shaped by ESG investments and by carbon border taxes.
  4. The status-quo is coming under stress. There are feedback loops through which C&I exit reinforces C&I exit, which undermines the financial viability of the discom.
  5. The future of the energy system requires a great wave of investment and risk-taking. What is required is a process of discovery, and not design, where profit-motivated private persons peer into the future, speculate about what might work, and take risks in building businesses that constitute bets about certain technologies and business models. This process requires investibility in the Tamil Nadu electricity system.
  6. The problem of electricity is not just a narrow problem within the energy sector; in Tamil Nadu it rises to a greater materiality within the overall economic growth strategy.

The paper offers a feasible and practical path to solutions.

Sunday, February 09, 2025

Improving electricity regulation in Tamil Nadu

by Akshay Jaitly, Charmi Mehta, Rishika Ranga, Renuka Sane, Ajay Shah and Karthik Suresh.

The Indian electricity sector is a centrally planned sector that faces increasing financial stress. In other words, a centrally planned decarbonisation would result in enlarged costs and political difficulties. The path forward for electricity reforms is to make changes one state at a time. We have started this journey with the state of Tamil Nadu.

The case of Tamil Nadu is particularly interesting. It holds great potential when it comes to the energy transition with high potential of offshore wind and solar. However, poor quality of supply along with indiscriminate subsidies for domestic and agricultural consumers has led to deep levels of fiscal stress on the Tamil Nadu state exchequer. Fiscal stress harms investibility in electricity, which is particularly a challenge for renewables. Due to multiple reasons, some of which may be attributed to the political economy at the state level, the state of Tamil Nadu has also revised tariffs only four times since the Electricity Act was enacted in 2003. These tariff revisions have often not reflected the cost of supply of electricity (e.g., the tariff revisions in 2017).

While the electricity sector in Tamil Nadu has recently undergone institutional changes in the form of TANGEDCO's demerger, the present state of regulatory challenges has not been adequately addressed. In a new paper, Improving electricity regulation in Tamil Nadu, we present evidence on regulatory failures of the electricity regulator in Tamil Nadu (TNERC) and contextualise the impact of this on associated aspects of public finance and private finance. We bring the knowledge of regulatory theory to bear upon the possible causes of these failures. We discuss the TNERC's performance on elements that make up a well-functioning regulator, such as clarity of purpose, separation of powers, selection of board members, fair adjudication, public consultations and financial independence.

Many aspects of regulatory reform require amendments to the Electricity Act, and hence the problem statement lies in identifying the levers available to make progress in Tamil Nadu. We identify several levers that the state government can use to undertake reforms, well within its powers under the Electricity Act, to make Tamil Nadu a turnaround story and a model for good electricity regulation nationwide. When these improvements are put into motion, they will materially change the views of private investors on the feasibility of investment in the Tamil Nadu electricity sector. This paper offers ideas on how this can be done.


Akshay Jaitly, Rishika Ranga and Renuka Sane are researchers at Trustbridge Rule of Law Foundation. Charmi Mehta, Ajay Shah and Karthik Suresh are researchers at XKDR Forum.

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Offshore wind in Tamil Nadu: from potential to reality

by Akshay Jaitly, Charmi Mehta, Renuka Sane and Ajay Shah.

Foundations

The world of renewables is comprised primarily of solar and wind. Of these, solar electricity suffers from the limitation of dwindling away in the evening, at precisely the time at which electricity demand rises. This makes wind particularly important. There is a good deal of onshore wind generation in India. What is different and potentially superior about offshore wind?

  1. Wind speeds tend to be higher offshore than on land. A wind turbine operating at a wind speed of 24 kph can generate twice as much energy as a turbine operating at a wind speed of 19 kph (American Geosciences Institute, 2023).
  2. The wind offshore tends to be more consistent, with higher power capture for a greater number of hours per day.
  3. Onshore wind requires land resources. Offshore wind is built in the open sea where land rights are cheaper, and it is easier to go to bigger blades.
  4. Offshore wind does not impose noise pollution upon the human population.

These benefits, of course, come with a problem, that construction of windmills in the high seas is more difficult when compared with building on land. Windmills are best placed at locations with high wind. Figure 1 shows that Tamil Nadu is a hot spot for offshore wind in India. It is interesting to notice that Sri Lanka is also a hotspot for offshore wind (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Wind speeds off the Indian coast

Source: India Wind Potential Atlas (NIWE, 2019).

Figure 2: Wind speeds off Sri Lanka.

Source: Technical Assessment by World Bank, IFC and ESMAP (2020).

There is an analogy between offshore wind in Sri Lanka, and hydel resources in Nepal and Bhutan. Given the correct arrangement of foreign policy (Subramanian, 2023), the Indian private sector can possibly play a leadership role in building electricity generation in Sri Lanka, as has been the case with Bhutan.

Putting these facts together, there is an important natural resource in Tamil Nadu, and its vicinity, through which vast renewable electricity generation can become possible, given the correct configuration of policies and state institutions that create conditions of investibility. We can dare to hope that very large offshore wind generation can take place off the coast of Tamil Nadu, which would attract energy-intensive firms to operate in the region, and enabling sale of electricity into locations far from Tamil Nadu.

Public economics for offshore wind

We can imagine an uncoordinated rush by the private sector to venture out into the seas and put up wind turbines. They would jostle with each other to build on the best sites. Each wind turbine would have to face the problem of transmitting energy to the mainland. There are three areas where policy makers can be useful:

  1. Ownership of the sea-bed and property rights: In a world without clarity on property rights, the private sector would experience conflicts when building wind turbines. There is a negative externality as multiple construction projects which are physically near each other impose a certain amount of chaos upon each other, and the presence of a windmill diminishes the energy production of nearby windmills.The sea-bed should be treated as a scarce natural resource, akin to the electromagnetic spectrum. There is a role for the state in establishing property rights, and auctioning off ownership of the sea-bed to private persons. The coercive power of the state would be used to create property rights for private persons, following which private persons would trade in blocks of sea-bed (akin to transactions in privately owned land or on the electromagnetic spectrum), and the government would enforce against encroachment. The negative externality problem during construction can be addressed by modified property rights which decongest each construction site for the construction period, by expanding the notion of property rights associated with each geographical location, to exclude other persons for the period of construction.
  2. Economics of transmission: Each wind turbine would have to face the problem of transmitting energy to the mainland. Every generation company would benefit from more convenient access to high capacity transmission lines. There is a natural monopoly problem in the transmission infrastructure - it is likely that a single transmission company will emerge within each geographical area. There is merit in using state power to coerce this firm on open-access rules (so it cannot deny transportation to any private person) and on price regulation.
  3. Data as a public good: The government can add value by spending taxpayer money to construct a dataset on wind speed and releasing this into the public domain. This activity involves no use of coercive power, other than the coercion that undergirds taxation. The government would merely release data on a website as a public good, and in no way preclude private persons from expending resources to create data on their own. For the government released data to be credible, it would have to be collected by trusted agencies, experienced in offshore wind data collection; the role for the government should be one of only contracting-out the construction of the data.

While electricity in India is largely a state subject, the sea-bed falls under the union government jurisdiction through Article 297 of the Indian Constitution through which the Parliament has enacted the Territorial Waters, Continental Shelf, Exclusive Economic Zone and Other Maritime Zones Act, 1976. Thus we can envision a two-part policy story for offshore wind, where the union government auctions off blocks of sea-bed, and the state government deals with everything connected with electricity. Once the energy reaches landing stations at the shore, it is just ordinary electricity and fits into the mainstream electricity market exactly as with onshore wind turbines.

How the Indian journey has unfolded

The union government has decided that offshore wind production will commence in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. A union government agency named the National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE) plays an important role in this field including that of being the designated counterparty for contracts. It plays a expansive role, akin to an offshore wind central planner. Transmission will be run by a union government PSU, the Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). No role is envisaged for state governments.

In 2018, NIWE published its first tender for an offshore wind block auction off the Gujarat coast. However, it did not receive bids and consequently had to be called off after multiple extensions (Deshpande, 2021). Since 2022, the Union Government has released (i) a national Strategy Paper for the Establishment of Offshore Wind Energy Projects and (ii) a draft tender for Sea bed leasing for offshore wind energy projects which pertains to locations off the coast of Tamil Nadu. These releases help improve policy predictability.

The proposed contracting model

Project costs in offshore wind are high, particularly in contrast to developing renewable energy plants onshore. Costs also vary as per the depth of waters and distance from shore. Operating offshore wind turbines involves higher maintenance requirements (Koch, 2012). First movers face higher costs on account of uncertainty and the inevitable mistakes.

NIWE has proposed three alternative contracting models in its strategy paper. Model A is for projects where surveys and assessments have been completed, and the site is ready for development. Model B is model A without viability gap funding ("VGF?). Model C is a fully bundled model with end-to-end responsibility placed upon the project developer, including site identification. The tender released (for the sea bed off the coast of Tamil Nadu) follows model A (NIWE, 2023). Table 1 summarises this proposed contract design.

Table 1: Risk-responsibility allocation across proposed offshore wind contracting models
Factors Risks/responsibility Model A
Government support Bridging financing gaps VGF (Union; unallocated)
Transmission charges Waived
Strategic and commercial risks Identifying sites for offshore wind farms Gov (Union)
Site assessment surveys Gov (Union)
Local factors Transmission infrastructure Gov (PGCIL)
Evacuation of power Gov (PGCIL)
Licenses Private
Power offtake guarantees None

Site characteristics have a substantial impact upon the prospective return on equity. The MNRE/NIWE supplies its assessment of each site. A careful examination of the data released by MNRE/NIWE is required. Potential developers may invest significant time and resources in constructing private sector data if there are limitations in the government-released data.

The selected bidder must set up the turbines offshore and connect each turbine to the offshore agglomeration facility (which will be constructed and managed by PGCIL). While the model mentions accessing VGF from the union government, the mechanism is not adequately spelled out. Is this policy strategy conducive to investibility?

i. Site selection and exclusivity:

Site selection is best done by potential wind farm developers. Developers face the consequences of, and are best placed to take decisions on sites when faced with a certain amount of data. They will commission the creation of additional data optimally. Under Model A, sites have been selected by NIWE. We expect that serious developers will construct their own datasets and may chafe at the locations pinned down by NIWE.

The next issue is that of exclusivity. Developers like to have a certain exclusive period, where no other construction takes place, in order to reduce the complexities of coordination across multiple construction projects. The exclusivity period for the sea-bed is set to five years, with a maximum extension of one year. The average time taken to set up a mid-size offshore wind farm, globally, is four years. In India, this is likely to attain a higher value (MOSPI, 2023).

Auctioning the exclusivity period itself can be a way to decide what a 'sufficient' period should be. In countries where confidence in offshore projects has been high, auctions are witnessing site tenures being awarded based on an auction in which the highest bidder wins the site (Exeter, 2022). For example, the Round 4 auction for sites (held in 2021) in England and Wales saw the highest bidder paying Euro 1bn upwards in option fees, payable annually (for ten years) for exclusive sea-bed rights on an 8 GW of offshore wind.

ii. The problem of transmission:

In offshore wind contracts in Northern Europe, the evacuation infrastructure for the electricity is generally created by the developer (and in some cases such as in the UK, later carved out and sold to a third party) or contracted out (separate from the offshore windfarm contract) to a private transmission service provider. Under Model A, this function has been assigned fully to the state-owned transmission company - PGCIL. PGCIL has no prior experience in developing transmission for offshore wind and it carries the burden of being a public sector organisation.

Whether managed by PGCIL or some other firm, regulation is required so that future developers are provided access to non-discriminatory evacuation infrastructure and services, perhaps using common carrier principles. While one block / site is up for auction today, numerous offshore plants will come up in the future in close vicinity. There may be shortages or exorbitant pricing of transmission, particularly in the absence of non-discriminatory access.

In addition to the risks from power evacuation, risks from unscheduled downtimes can induce losses, and contract terms will determine who bears this risk. For example, in Germany, the costs of curtailments/incapacities were transferred to the consumer. In contrast, costs remained with the project owner in China despite their lack of control over the risk (Gatzert, 2016). The government's decision to manage the complete evacuation responsibility may prove problematic in the event that higher transmission losses or shutouts imposes important risks upon the developer. If the preference is for power evacuation to be managed by PGCIL, contractual provisions on liquidated damages must adequately cover for downtimes that are not caused by the fault of the developer and other transmission losses.

iii. Regulatory burdens

Unlike transmission and distribution, power generation has no market failure problem. It is hence important to envisage a contract design that harnesses private sector expertise, without added layers of government involvement. At present, establishing an offshore wind farm will require a set of seventeen different clearances and licences from a host of ministries, including the prerequisite of block approval from the Ministry of Defence. Seven of the seventeen clearances are necessary even before one can make a bid, and the rest are post-award. The sector also includes a specific licensing regime that extends to how new offshore assets connect and interact with the grid. This requirement for multiple permissions detract from the vision of property rights in the hands of a private person.

Further, approvals and no-objection certificates may be required from State Governments for transmission and evacuation infrastructure-related provisioning and any other clearances as may be legally required to establish and operate offshore power plants - as in the case of oil and gas pipelines (NIWE, 2022a, NIWE, 2022b).

It might be useful to consider if some project-related (as opposed to bidder related) approvals can be obtained ahead of time and made part of the bid package. This will reduce risk for bidders and may lead to more attractive bids.

Lastly, as with any nascent industry, policy and regulatory frameworks are likely to evolve and change over time - and existing concessionaires should be contractually protected from this through adequate 'change in law' and 'change of scope' provisions.

Under the present policy strategy, offshore wind generation requires the firm to have a high level of government engagement, and exposure to policy risk. This problem may encourage foreign firms to find local partners and enhance the required rate of return, i.e. hamper investibility.

iv. The role of the union government:

The present policy strategy suggests a offshore wind industry that is run out of the union government. This vision will sit uneasily with the primary role of the state government in electricity regulation and the electricity business once the energy hits the shore. Since vessel availability and transport infrastructure are critical to offshore wind farm development and often contribute to delays, cost overruns ((Koch, 2012), and litigation, the State's port infrastructure can be adapted to facilitate project management. Proximity of the Thoothukudi port to the proposed site is an advantage, and logistics facilities such as (i) storage areas for component assembly and manufacturing, and (ii) berth infrastructure can be developed to support upcoming offshore wind plants (Auroville Consulting, 2022). Such thinking is downplayed in a union-dominated policy process.

Assessing the outlook

Our analysis suggests that there is a considerable gap between the natural resource potential for offshore wind in South Asia and its tangible translation into RE capacity. The sea-bed lease tender was released in September 2023 with a deadline of 28 November 2023. In our knowledge, no bids have emerged.

Electricity is a concurrent list subject under the Indian Constitution, with both the union government and the state government having the right to make law over aspects of the sector. Sea-bed jurisdiction appears to clearly lie with the union. It would make sense to rely on the state government to a greater extent.

There are significant manufacturing and transportation challenges associated with the bulky parts of offshore wind facilities. Both Tamil Nadu and Gujarat are strong in manufacturing, and are natural sites where a private industry could develop that will undertake this manufacturing, and play a role in offshore wind sites hundreds of kilometres away.

The arguments presented earlier in this article show that thinking from first principles, the role of the state in this field is (a) Establishing property rights with auctions of chunks of sea-bed, including a special kind of exclusivity during construction; (b) Ensuring open access and price regulation for the natural monopoly of transmission; (c) Possibly adding value by constructing and releasing a robust dataset with wind speed. There is merit in evolving the policy strategy towards these three pillars.

References

American Geosciences Institute. 2023. What are the advantages and disadvantages of offshore wind farms?, National Academy of Sciences.

Deshpande, T. 2021. Why India's Offshore Wind Energy Potential Remains Untapped, IndiaSpend. 26 November 2021.

NIWE. 2023. Strategy for Establishment of Offshore Wind Energy Projects, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government of India. September 2023.

Koch, C. 2012. Contested overruns and performance of offshore wind power plants, Construction Management and Economics, 30:8, 609-622.

Infrastructure and Project Management Division, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. 2023. Quarterly Report on Mega Projects.

Laido et al. 2022. Impacts of Competitive Seabed Allocation for Offshore Wind Energy, University of Exeter. April 2022.

Gatzert et al. 2016. Risks and risk management of renewable energy projects: The case of onshore and offshore wind parks, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 60. July 2016.

Auroville Consulting. 2022. Unlocking Offshore Wind in Tamil Nadu. Sustainable Energy Transformation Series.

Subramanian, A. 2023. Answers in the offshore wind.The Indian Express. 23 March 2023.


Akshay Jaitly and Renuka Sane are Co-founder and Research Director, respectively, at TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation; Charmi Mehta and Ajay Shah are Research Associate and Co-founder, respectively, at XKDR Forum.

Tuesday, January 09, 2024

The difficulties of asset monetisation in the transmission sector

by Akshay Jaitly, Charmi Mehta, Rishika R, and Ajay Shah.

Introduction

About 95% of nationwide transmission assets in India are presently owned by the government company, Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL). A transformation of electricity transmission systems is required to achieve decarbonisation, reflecting the distributed geography of renewables generation in India, and the eventual de-commissioning of present coal-based power generation. Several estimates suggest a total required investment, for electricity transmission, of over INR 2 trillion over the next five years.

Given the public finance and managerial constraints in the Indian state, private investment is critical to achieve the required investments. Land, compliances and clearances impede pure private greenfield transmission projects, so one method there is for the government to do development and then monetise the assets. Existing assets are relatively straightforward to operate and risk-free, with a steady stream of user charges, where private sector participation is then readily achieved.

While attempts at attracting private investment in this field have taken place from 2006, the outcomes so far have been poor. One response to this was in October 2022, where the Ministry of Power issued guiding principles for states to monetise 14% of transmission assets that are currently owned and operated by state-owned transmission utilities. This involved a new contracting mechanism: the "Acquire, Operate, Maintain and Transfer (AOMT) model".

This is the temporary transfer of asset ownership (i.e. not a sale) to private firms in exchange of an upfront payment. Firms are expected obtain cash from the operations (user charges) of the asset, depending on the model deployed for monetisation. Asset monetisation has twin benefits for governments - first, it provides short-term liquidity to the public sector entity in the form of upfront payment for the asset(s); and second, it allows the government to delegate the operations and maintenance (O&M) to the private sector, enabling public sector entities to harness private sector capabilities and reduce their scope.

How previous asset monetisation models worked

Asset monetisation has been used as a contracting model for O&M since 2018 when the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) began using the toll-operate-transfer (TOT) model, which draws on ideas from Australia, North America and Europe. Besides this, InvITs have been used in the transmission sector. There is significant knowledge and experience around InvITs and TOT contracts in India: they constitute the baseline against which the new AOMT can be understood. Table 1 provides a comparison of the three models on key features.

Table 1: A comparison of key features across contracting models - InvITs, TOT and AOMT.

InvITs Toll Operate Transfer AOMT
Description Transfer of assets to listed registered trusts regulated by Securities Exchange Board of India which issues units to multiple investors. Comparable to equity for a limited time period. Temporary transfer of asset ownership for an upfront payment from the private party who is granted this concession. The private party is also granted rights to collect user charges, and other charges to finance the O&M of the asset. Temporary transfer of ownership of assets for upfront payment from the private party, in turn allowing them to operate and maintain the asset, and generate revenue from it.
Regulation of investment vehicle Trust to be registered by SEBI; existing licences applicable SPV/ investor entity regulated by contract terms Transmission licence transfer/re-registration to be approved by State electricity regulator
Regulation of user charges Approved by electricity regulator and governed by Transmission Service Agreement As per National Highway Toll Determination Rules Approved by electricity regulator and governed by Transmission Service Agreement
Mode of returns Returns from dividends, interest and capital gains on units Toll charges Transmission charges (varied across states)
O&M Public Private Private
Ownership Pooled; investors Single or consortium Single or consortium

The Toll-Operate-Transfer model in Indian Highways

In 2018, the NHAI bundled approximately 500 km of highways for the first auction, and potential investors were to bid the upfront payment they would make for the bundle. In return, investors receive the right to operate the highway and collect tolls generated from it during the concession period. This model provides the awarded party autonomy on operations and revenue generation, eliminating the involvement of the public authority in O&M.

The NHAI has so far attempted to monetise ten bundles (rounds) of assets with varied rates of success. The lack of bids, undervalued bids, and low price recovery led to auctions being stalled, bids annulled and fresh auctions being called, several times. Most recently, the 9th and 10th TOT bundles up for auction were halted as they did not meet the reserve price set by NHAI. Despite using a familiar model, the implementation has not yielded positive outcomes. Large value disputes in highway contracting, low standards of public disclosure and the inability to make accurate revenue growth projections are some of the reasons for its substandard outcomes.

The InvIT model in the transmission sector

In 2020, the PGCIL became the first publicly owned company to set up its own investment trust (InvIT). The PGCIL InvIT holds transmission assets worth INR 7500 crores and it opened for subscription in early 2021. Within two days of the offer, 59% of the units were subscribed. When the session was closed, PGCIL benefited from a 3% premium over the issue price and the initial public offer was subscribed 4.83 times. During this period, investor perception was also positive with analysts predicting that the InvIT would yield steady long-term returns. PGCIL eventually auctioned 27.41 crore units, earning INR 2,736.02 crore in May 2021. However, concerns with the lack of transparent price discovery and taxation norms on long-term capital investments have prompted PGCIL to rethink its InvIT plans. Additionally, the retention of O&M as a function of the public sector entity may create a hesitation to investment by private entities.

Neither of the two distinct asset monetisation models that India has experimented with achieved the outcomes it set out to achieve. On one hand, InvIT provides a diversification of risk but O&M remains with the government. On the other hand, TOT provides autonomy over O&M but ownership is not diversified. This serves as a case study for the design of new models for asset monetisation, and whether it can address the concerns of previous models used.

There is no reason why an InvIT structure cannot be augmented to also include the contracting out of O&M functions to a private entity. This will bring in private sector efficiency and allay the fears of investors. There are two ways in which the InvIT could be presently undertaking O&M: (i) it is possible that PGCIL is charging the InvIT a fee and doing the O&M, or (ii) O&M staff may have been transferred with the assets and the InvIT is doing its own O&M. Either way the function is retained with the government, making it a potential point of concern for investors. To eliminate this friction, a third model is preferable, where O&M functions of an InvIT are contracted out. This could have been a plausible design option since InvITs have been around for a while, instead of opting for a fully different model.

Concerns about the AOMT

The importance of private investment in transmission is well taken. The question lies in the pathway to a solution. We recognise the immense complexities of getting up to a well-functioning institutional mechanism. We also recognise that different sectors may warrant different approaches to doing the same things. There are two main concerns with the AOMT model:

  1. The contract design is not suited to state government assets due to problems of state-level electricity governance; the overall lack of control on streams and decisions of revenue (user charges) is a factor that models should solve for; and
  2. The unfamiliarity with the model among state governments (and asset monetisation generally). There are two existing mechanisms for doing this, with precedents and understanding within infrastructure, finance and government establishments: InvIT and TOT. These represent natural pathways to take for electricity transmission assets.

It has been over one year since the introduction of the model and it has seen no uptake from states so far. States have expressed concerns with the design and feasibility of the model. When the Ministry of Power proposed AOMT, there was a need for a first principles argument and public consultation, about why a third strategy was proposed. They needed to show the difficulties that would arise through the three existing pathways, and how the modifications chosen under the AOMT model addressed these difficulties.

References

Ministry of Power, Guiding principles for Asset Monetisation in the Transmission sector for state governments, October 2022.

Utpal Bhaskar, Power firms finalize models for asset monetisation plan, Livemint, 2022.

KPMG, Global Infrastructure Asset Recycling and Infrastructure Capital, June 2020.

Charmi Mehta and Bhargavi Zaveri, Monetisation lessons from NHAI, The Business Standard, March 2021.

Surya Sarathi Ray, NHAI cancels two projects on low bids, Financial Express, March 2022.

P Manoj, NHAI annuls highest bid of Sekura Roads for ToT Bundle 10 as it was below reserve price, The Economic Times, Sept 2022.

Charmi Mehta and Susan Thomas, Identifying roadblocks in highway contracting: lessons from NHAI litigation, The LEAP Blog, July 2022.

Shreya Jai, PowerGrid's asset monetisation via InvITs gets Cabinet go-ahead, Business Standard, Sept 2020.

Sundar Sethuraman, PowerGrid Infrastructure Investment Trust ends debut trade at 3% premium, Business Standard, May 2021.

Sunil Shankar Matkar, PowerGrid InvIT IPO opens: Should you subscribe?, MoneyControl, April 2021.

Utpal Bhaskar, PGCIL drops second InvIT tranche plan, LiveMint, Jan 2023.


Akshay Jaitly is co-founder of Trustbridge Rule of Law Foundation and Trilegal, Charmi Mehta is a researcher with XKDR Forum, Rishika R is a researcher with Trustbridge Rule of Law Foundation, and Ajay Shah is co-founder of XKDR Forum.

Thursday, October 26, 2023

Reducing challenges to arbitration awards: lessons from court data

by Madhav Goel, Akshay Jaitly, Renuka Sane and Anjali Sharma.

Contracts form the bedrock of economic activity in the formal economy. As an economy grows, so does its reliance on contracts. Delays and friction in contract enforcement erode trust in contracts and inhibit the pace of economic growth. In India, contract enforcement generally falls in the jurisdiction of the civil court system, which, according to the National Judicial Data Grid, has more than 11 million pending cases and takes, on an average, more than three years to dispose of a case. One of the solutions to an increasingly overburdened court system in India has been to move certain types of matters to a different judicial forum, either a specialised court or tribunal or by using an alternate dispute resolution (ADR) mechanism. Arbitration is one such alternative mechanism, the framework for which is provided by the Arbitration and Conciliation Act, 1996 (A and C Act).

Contract enforcement by private persons against the state in India brings its own set of problems. Increasingly, government contracts provide for dispute resolution by arbitration. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that the state consistently challenges adverse arbitration awards. In this article, we use Delhi High Court data on challenges to arbitration awards for matters in which the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) was a party. We analyse the grounds on which these awards were challenged and the manner in which the court dealt with these challenges.

Our main finding is that both the NHAI and the private parties challenge adverse arbitration awards, most often on the merits, even though the A and C Act specifically prohibits this. We also find that the court generally does not interfere with arbitral awards, which is in line with the legislative intent. However, this does not deter such challenges. This may be for a variety of reasons, such as the relatively low cost of litigation vis-a-vis the award value or the incentives of decision makers within the state.

Our analysis adds to the intersection of two growing bodies of recent work in India on the subject. The first that studies government contracting, both from a public administration lens and from the lens of how the government impacts ease of doing business and business outcomes (Chitgupi and Thomas (2023), Burman and Manivannan (2022), Mehta and Thomas (2022), Manivannan and Zaveri (2021), Shah (2021), Roy and Sharma (2020)). The second studies the functioning of courts and the manner in which they deal with a variety of matters (Manivannan et. al. (2021), Damle et. al. (2021), Sharma and Zaveri (2020), Gulati and Sane (2021), Bhatia et. al. (2019)).

The organisation of this article is as follows. We first provide an overview of the legislative and judicial framework to challenge an arbitral award, i.e., Sections 34 and 37 of the A and C Act. We then describe our data set and our methodology for analysis. This is followed by our findings and some recommendations on the way forward.

An overview of Sections 34 and 37 of the A and C Act

The design of the A and C Act allows for a two-stage sequential challenge to outcomes of arbitration proceedings, first under Section 34 and then under Section 37 of the Act. Section 34 provides 5 procedural and jurisdictional grounds, along with 3 additional grounds to set aside an arbitral award. These are:

  • Procedural and Jurisdiction:
    • The party was under some incapacity while entering into the arbitration agreement;
    • The arbitration agreement was not valid under the law to which the parties have subjected it;
    • The party making the application was not given proper notice of appointment of arbitrator or of arbitral proceedings, or was otherwise unable to present its case;
    • The arbitral award dealt with a dispute not contemplated by or not falling within the terms of the submission to arbitration, or it contained decisions on matters beyond the scope of the submission to arbitration; or
    • The composition of the arbitral tribunal or the arbitral procedure was not in accordance with the agreement of the parties or the A and C Act, as the case may be.
  • Additional Grounds:
    • The subject matter of the dispute was not capable of settlement by arbitration;
    • The award is in conflict with the public policy of India, i.e., award is affected by fraud or corruption, or is against the fundamental policy of Indian law, or is in conflict with the most basic notions of morality or justice; or
    • The award is vitiated by patent illegality appearing on the face of the award.

It is useful to note that Section 34 proceedings are not appeals (Delhi Airport Metro Express (P) Ltd. v. DMRC (2022)), and the grounds for challenge are limited by the A and C Act itself (Union of India v. Annavaram Concrete Pvt. Ltd. (2021)). Under the scheme of Section 34, an arbitral award cannot be set aside on merits, that is, on the grounds of erroneous application of law or by re-appreciation of evidence (MMTC Limited v. Vendanta Limited (2019); PSA SICAL Terminals (P) Ltd. v. Board of Trustees of V.O. Chidambranar Port Trust Tuticorin (2021)). Therefore, unless an arbitral award is set aside under the grounds laid down in Section 34, it is ready for execution as a civil court decree against the award debtor. Section 37 of the A and C Act, on the other hand, is an avenue of appeal against an order under Section 34 of the Act. Accordingly, proceedings under Section 37 are governed by the Code of Civil Procedure, 1908 (CPC) and are in the form of an appeal. However, through consistent judicial pronouncements, the grounds for appeal under Section 37 have been restricted, even as compared to the grounds under Section 34 (Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited vs. Applied Electronics Ltd. (2014)).

While the A and C Act is, to a large extent, modeled on the UNCITRAL Model Law on International Commercial Arbitration, 1985, it deviates from the Model Law in two important ways. First, it introduces an additional ground to challenge an arbitral award: patent illegality appearing on the face of the award. Second, it provides for a two-stage appeal process, where Section 37(1)(c) of the Act allows an appeal against an order under Section 34 setting aside or refusing to set aside the arbitral award. These two deviations from the Model Law have implications for the efficacy of the arbitration framework in India. The ground of patent illegality introduces ambiguity and discretion in the otherwise procedural nature of the process of challenging awards. The two-stage appeal process adds to this ambiguity and discretion, and introduces delays in the enforcement of the award. Section 36 of the A and C Act, under which an award is enforced as a decree, adds to these challenges. Section 36(2) specifically gives the court the power to stay the enforceability of an award. Section 36(3) specifies the conditions under which the court may grant such a stay.

Data and methodology

For our analysis, we collected judgments from Delhi High Court for the years 2018 and 2019 pertaining to matters where the NHAI is a party. Our choice of Delhi High Court is due to its importance as a court for arbitration matters, as well as because NHAI matters are likely to be brought before it.

Our choice of the years 2018 and 2019 is driven by three factors. First, the arbitration framework has undergone significant legislative change since 2015 and more recent data reflects the current framework. Second, the period from 2020-2022 was marked by disruptions in the judicial system due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and therefore, may not represent the ordinary course of dispute resolution. Finally, the choice of 2018 and 2019 allows for the possibility of extending our analysis to studying the entire life-cycle of such litigation all the way to the Supreme Court.

We focus on the NHAI because of its status as an autonomous, specialised statutory body that has been tasked with development, maintenance and management of India's national highways. NHAI is also one of the largest contracting bodies within government, accounting for nearly 10 percent of the total union government expenditure on public procurement (Sharma and Thomas (2021), Chitgupi, Gorsi and Thomas, (2022)).

We find 96 judgments in Delhi High Court where NHAI is a party. Of these, 82 pertain to matters under Sections 34 and 37 of the A and C Act (details can be found by clicking here) From these 82 judgments, we collect the following details:

  1. The nature and quantum of claims filed before the arbitral tribunal;
  2. The party that won the arbitration;
  3. The time taken between filing the petition under Section 34 or 37 of the A and C Act to the final judgment;
  4. The nature of disputes and grounds for the petition under Section 34 or 37; and
  5. Which party won, and the quantification of the claims that were upheld/set aside by the Court.

Findings

Our main finding is in regards to the win-loss record for a challenge to an arbitral award under Sections 34 and 37 of the A and C Act, i.e., the likelihood of success in challenging the arbitral award (Table 1).

Table 1: Outcome of Section 34 and 37 Challenges

Categories 2018 2019 Total

Petitioner won 4 4 8
Petitoner lost 44 30 74

Total 48 34 82

Source: Delhi High Court judgments

We find that in 74 of the 82 cases (90.2%) involving NHAI, the court refused to interfere with the arbitral award, irrespective of whether the party challenging the award was the NHAI or the private party. This suggests two things. First, the Delhi High Court's action of ordinarily not setting aside the arbitral award is in line with the legislative intent of Sections 34 and 37 of the A and C Act. Second, despite the court not interfering with the award, parties continue to mount such challenges. This is especially so for NHAI, which is the petitioner in 67 out of the 82 matters.

When we look at the grounds under which awards are being challenged in court (Table 2), we observe that the bulk of the challenges, 77 out of 82 (93.9%), are under Section 34(2A), which is unlike the provisions of the UNCITRAL Model Law, and is an Indian innovation that allows the award to be reviewed on the basis of the substantive merits of the case. Patent illegality is a subjective formulation whose treatment may change from case to case and from court to court.

Table 2: Nature of Section 34 challenges

Provision 2018 2019 Total

S. 34(1) 2 1 3
S. 34(2) - - -
S. 34(2A) 45 32 77
S. 34(3) 1 1 2

Source: Delhi High Court judgments

The findings from Tables 1 and 2 together indicate that award debtors routinely challenge arbitral awards on substantive merits, even though the courts routinely turn down such challenges.

We also find that, on average, it takes the court 805 days (2.2 years) to dispose of a Section 34 challenge and 208 days (0.6 years) to dispose of a Section 37 challenge. A matter in which both Section 34 and 37 challenges are brought will be in court for about 3 years after the award has been made by the arbitral tribunal.

In 36 of the 82 matters, we get data for the size of the claim. The total value of claims, across these 36 cases, is Rs. 17.5 billion and the average per case claim value is Rs. 485 million. While these may not be significant for an entity of NHAI's scale, for private parties dealing with NHAI, these may be consequential. And so may be the additional time of three years and the cost of litigation to secure these claims.

Some simple calculations also give us a sense of what these challenges with minimal chance of success mean for the government. At an interest rate of 8% per annum (MCLR during 2018 and 2019 was in this range), compounded annually, after the three year litigation challenging the arbitral award, the government will have to bear an additional interest cost of Rs. 4.5 billion on these awards. This does not take into account the cost and time consumed by the litigation.

Why do parties challenge arbitral awards?

There may be two main reasons why parties continue to appeal even though the chances of the award being overturned are low:

  • Low costs: for large value awards, the cost of the litigation challenging the arbitral award is lower than the expected benefit to the award debtor even at low probability of the award being overturned (Mehta and Thomas (2022) supra). Additionally, for the government, the economic considerations around litigation costs may not be as relevant as for private litigants. Empanelled lawyers for the government and its agencies are often remunerated far less than lawyers representing private parties. Further, incentives of the bureaucracy are often such that they do not accept adverse outcomes in contractual disputes and litigate till the last available forum, regardless of cost.

  • Delaying the enforcement: parties may resort to challenging the award to delay enforcement. Filing a petition under Section 34 of the A and C Act often forces the award holder to delay an execution petition under Section 36 of the Act. This could be because of the uncertainty regarding the outcome of the challenge, and due to potentially wasteful litigation costs, should the award be stayed or overturned. Anecdotal evidence shows that the executing court is often cognizant of the filing of a petition under Section 34 while taking substantive decisions under Section 36 of the Act. The executing court typically awaits the outcome of proceedings under Section 34 or 37 before taking any coercive action against the award debtor. Therefore, it is likely that much of the litigation under Sections 34 and 37 is a means of delaying enforcement of the award, and not because the litigants expect to succeed.

Legislative solutions

Disincentivising litigants from challenging arbitral awards on merits, especially if the litigant is the government, is important to ensure that the A and C Act remains relevant as an alternate dispute resolution mechanism. This can be achieved through two levers. First, that courts take up Section 34 challenges only in cases where there is a high likelihood of the challenge succeeding. Second, the cost of challenging the award either under Section 34 or Section 37 are high enough to alter the economic incentives of the award debtor. To this effect, we suggest three legislative solutions:

  1. Amending Sections 34 and 37 of the A and C Act to introduce a prima facie test of satisfaction: As the law stands currently, the courts must hear petitions under Sections 34 or Section 37 and decide them on merits, irrespective of the grounds of challenge and the chances of success. This takes up significant resources. Introducing a prima facie test of satisfaction will enable the Court to dismiss the petition at the pre-notice stage itself, unless the petitioner is able to satisfy the court that it has a good case on merits. This will be similar to the procedure adopted by the Supreme Court while hearing fresh special leave petitions under Article 136 of the Constitution of India. The decision of the court to entertain a petition under Section 34 or Section 37, based on a prima facie view of the merits, has cost advantages to the litigants as well as the court. Dismissal at the pre-notice stage means that the litigants do not bear the cost of a full appeal and the court also spends less time and resources in deciding the petition on merits (Shavell (2010)). Further, deciding the merits at the pre-notice stage may also reduce time and costs during the full appeal as part of the assessment of the merit will already have been done by the court.

  2. Amending of Sections 34 and 37 of the A and C Act to introduce a mandatory pre-deposit of fees proportionate to the arbitral award for the admission of petitions to set aside arbitral awards: As pointed out earlier, the economic incentives are stacked in favour of a challenge to the award. One way of counteracting this would be to increase the cost of a challenge. This can be achieved by adopting a mandatory pre-deposit of a proportion of the award value with the court before a challenge can be instituted. Such a pre-deposits can be tiered, with a higher proportion being required under Section 37 as compared to Section 34.

  3. Another way of achieving this outcome will be to amend Section 82 of the Act to introduce a clarification that empowers the courts to frame rules to introduce barriers to unmeritorious challenges. These could include, as suggested above, a prima facie test or a mandatory pre-deposit of a proportion of the award value under challenge. This method leaves the discretion of framing such rules, and the substance of these rules with each High Court which could take into account local conditions while framing them. Further, the desired objective will be achieved without hard coding too much detail in the statute itself, which might make it inflexible and require more amendments going forward.

    In October, 2021, the General Financial Rules, 2017 (GFR), the procurement rules for union government and its agencies, were amended to introduce Rule 227A which requires government departments challenging arbitral awards to pay 75% of the award value into an escrow account, to be used sequentially for the settlement of lender's dues, project completion and then as payment to the contractor. However, the impact of this change is in respect of of government challenges to arbitral awards. Our analysis shows that even private parties routinely challenge arbitral awards, and hence an amendment to the A and C Act introducing a pre-deposit may be desirable.

  4. Amending Section 37(1)(c) to remove the second challenge avenue for the award debtor: Section 37(1)(c) of the A and C Act permits an appeal of the order of the court either setting aside or refusing to set aside an arbitral award under Section 34. This affords the award debtor a second avenue to continue litigation and stave off enforcement of the award. Our analysis shows that while courts generally uphold the award even during this challenge, both time and resources of the court and the litigants are consumed. Further, even at this stage courts may adjudicate the matter on merits, despite this already having been done at the award stage and at the Section 34 stage. Further, as mentioned earlier, no analogous provision to Section 37(1)(c) exists even in the Model Law as well as the United Nations Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards.

    One possibility is to completely remove Section 37(1)(c) from the A and C Act and align the framework for challenging an arbitral award with the Model Law. Alternatively, Section 37(1)(c) could be amended to remove the appeal available to the award debtor, but retain the appeal available to the award holder. This will protect against frivolous appeals by the award debtor, while providing adequate remedy in matters where an award has been erroneously overturned under Section 34.

Conclusion

In India, delays of the court system have increasingly led both government and private parties to opt for ADR mechanisms such as arbitration to resolve contractual disputes. However, for arbitration to be used effectively, it is important that challenges to the outcome of arbitration are limited to the procedural and jurisdictional grounds laid down in the A and C Act. Our analysis shows that this may not be so, and that both government and private parties routinely challenge arbitral awards on merits. Challenges to arbitration awards appear to have become a way of delaying enforcement. The Delhi High Court has been sanguine in the manner of its dealing with these challenges, most often refusing to interfere with the arbitration outcome. However, this does not seem to have deterred challenges, especially from government agencies.

One way of disincentivising such challenges is to amend the A and C Act to remove the legislative loopholes. These include: (i) introducing a prima facie test of the merits of the challenge, (ii) seeking a pre-deposit of a part of the award value before allowing a challenge, and (iii) removing the second challenge permitted under the Act. These changes could go a long way in curbing the litigious behaviour of parties to delay enforcement of high value awards.

Contract enforcement is hard when there exists an imbalance of power and resources between the parties to a contract or where the incentives of one of the parties are not driven entirely by commercial considerations, as in the case of government contracting with private parties. Creating legislative boundaries against strategic actions by parties, whether government or private, is one way of dealing with this challenge. There are other ways, that seek to change the behaviour of government departments and agencies, through measures such as a National Litigation Policy or the government procurement rules.

References

Aneesha Chitgupi and Susan Thomas, Learning by doing for public procurement, XKDR Working Paper No. 22 (2023).

Pavithra Manivannan, Susan Thomas, and Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah, Helping litigants make informed choices in resolving debt disputes, The Leap Blog (2023).

Anirudh Burman and Pavithra Manivannan, Delays in government contracting: A tale of two metros, The Leap Blog (2022).

Aneesha Chitgupi, Abhishek Gorsi, and Susan Thomas, Learning by doing and public procurement in India, The Leap Blog (2022).

Charmi Mehta and Susan Thomas, Identifying roadblocks in highway contracting: lessons from NHAI litigation, The Leap Blog (2022).

Pavithra Manivannan and Bhargavi Zaveri, How large is the payment delays problem in Indian public procurement?, The Leap Blog (2021).

Ajay Shah, The bottleneck of government contracting, Business Standard (2021).

Anjali Sharma and Susan Thomas, The footprint of union government procurement in India, XKDR Working Paper No. 10 (2021).

Devendra Damle, Karan Gulati, Anjali Sharma, and Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah, Litigation in public contracts: some estimates from court data, The Leap Blog (2021).

Karan Gulati and Renuka Sane, Grievance Redress by Courts in Consumer Finance Disputes, The Leap Blog (2021).

Anjali Sharma and Bhargavi Zaveri, Judicial triage in the lockdown: evidence from India's largest commercial tribunal, The Leap Blog (2020).

Shubho Roy and Anjali Sharma, What ails public procurement: an analysis of tender modifications in the pre-award process, The Leap Blog (2020).

Surbhi Bhatia, Manish Singh, and Bhargavi Zaveri, Time to resolve insolvencies in India, The Leap Blog (2019).

Steven M. Shavell, On the Design of the Appeals Process: The Optimal Use of Discretionary Review versus Direct Appeal, 39 J. Legal Stud. 63 (2010).

Delhi Airport Metro Express (P) Ltd. v. DMRC, (2022) 1 SCC 131.

Union of India v. Annavaram Concrete Pvt. Ltd., (2021) SCC OnLine Del 4211.

MMTC Limited v. Vendanta Limited, (2019) 4 SCC 163.

PSA SICAL Terminals (P) Ltd. v. Board of Trustees of V.O. Chidambranar Port Trust Tuticorin, (2021) SCC OnLine SC 508.

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited vs. Applied Electronics Ltd., AIR (2014) Delhi 182.


Madhav Goel, Renuka Sane and Anjali Sharma are with the TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation. Akshay Jaitly is the co-founder of TrustBridge Rule of Foundation and Partner, Trilegal. We thank Karan Gulati, Ajay Shah and two anonymous referees for their inputs and comments.

Friday, June 10, 2022

Threats to legal certainty in government contracting by electricity distribution companies

by Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah.

A battle in Andhra Pradesh, 2018-2022

In September 2018, electricity distribution companies in Andhra Pradesh (Discoms) filed a petition before the Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (APERC) to reduce the feed-in tariff for wind power projects (that had been determined under Section 62 of the Electricity Act, where the regulator sets the price). Another petition was filed requesting APERC to revise the tariff payable by Discoms under solar power PPAs (this time discovered under Section 63 of the Electricity Act, where there is a competitive bidding process). The argument made by Discoms was that the tariff discovered in other states pursuant to competitive bidding was lower than the tariffs statutorily determined in Andhra Pradesh. There are also newspaper reports about the state load dispatch centre (SLDC) curtailing output by renewables generators, ostensibly in the interests of grid safety.

These attempts at reneging on contracts, by the state, go against basic notions of sanctity of contracting and legal certainty. When X contracts with Y, both are bound by and obliged to fulfil the terms of the contract, regardless of future fluctuations of prices and technology. The Indian Contract Act, 1872, and a line of case law under it, gives no space for either X or Y, as private persons, to renege on a contract because better prices had come about somewhere else in the economy.

It is also settled law that when the state enters into a contract, it does so in a commercial capacity and not as the sovereign. If the Indian state purports to renege on contracts in this fashion, it deepens the problems of the state as an untrusted counterparty, and fewer private persons will be willing to do business with the state in the future. This would harm the prices at which the state is able to enter into contracts.

As an example, consider a Jan 2022 story by Kailash Babar in the Economic Times, about NHAI terminating a contract with IL&FS which had been established in 2013. NHAI did not just walk away: it paid IL&FS Rs.891 crore for the privilege of terminating the contract. Concessions typically have a formula for termination compensation in three scenarios – authority default, no fault and concessionaire default. These are expressed as percentages of debt due plus some equity return and some other terms.

Attempts at reneging on PPAs elsewhere in India

This experience from Andhra Pradesh is actually not unique. Discoms and regulators in Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu have subsequently attempted unilateral termination or renegotiation of renewable energy tariffs under validly executed PPAs.

Punjab took this one step further in November last year, by introducing and unanimously passing legislation to get out of its PPA obligations. A few months ago, we wrote about the Punjab Renewable Energy Security, Reform, Termination and Re-Determination of Power Tariff Bill passed in the Punjab Legislative Assembly. This law seeks to renege on PPAs that the Punjab state Discom had voluntarily entered into, on the basis that these created too heavy a financial burden on the state. This attempt by the state, to have immunity from contract performance, is under legal challenge.

A seminal skirmish took place a while ago, in Gujarat in 2013, where the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity had held with reference to the actions of a Discom in Gujarat, that a PPA could only be reopened for "giving thrust to renewable energy projects and not for curtailing the incentives". In other words, PPAs could not be reopened to reduce tariffs. In this case, Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd (GUVNL) had filed a petition before the Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission (GERC) in 2013, asking for a revision in solar tariffs determined by the commission in its 2010 order on the grounds of reduced customs and excise duties, which would justify a downward revision of the tariffs. The GERC dismissed GUVNL’s petition and its decision was upheld by the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (APTEL) on appeal. APTEL held that since GUVNL had not established that there is a legal right available to it to seek a redetermination of the tariff by reopening the PPA, the GERC would not be expected to revisit the generic tariff ‘to dis-incentivise the project developers and consequently discourage future investment in the sector’.

How the Andhra Pradesh story played out

Despite this, solar and wind power developers challenged this in the High Court of Andhra Pradesh. A single judge bench of the High Court dismissed the Discoms' petitions in September 2019, with a direction to APERC to decide the issues raised by the developers.

But the High Court directed the Discoms to pay an interim tariff (lower than the tariffs under the PPAs) until APERC adjudicated the matter. The legal foundations through which the court chose to go against contract law are not clear. This created tremendous commercial difficulties in the industry. In some instances, there are reports that even this lower interim tariff was not being paid by the Discoms, causing further distress to power generators.

The typical renewables project is a tight arrangement of capital and PPA, with little room for contracting wobbles. Once the predictability of cash flows was disrupted, some of the generating assets were classified as 'non-performing'. The generators tried to go to court to force lenders to not do so.

This problem then showed up at a Division Bench at the Andhra Pradesh High Court. The case played out over three years. The Division Bench held that:

  1. The tariff under concluded PPAs cannot be re-negotiated;
  2. Financial difficulty of Discoms is not a ground to permit non-performance of the PPAs or to reduce the tariff set out under the PPAs;
  3. A tariff determined through competitive bidding process under Section 63 of the Electricity Act cannot be re-determined; and
  4. Since renewable energy plants operate on a ‘must-run basis’, any arbitrary curtailment of power by the state load despatch centre without notice and not based on grid security or safety reasons is illegal.

This was a salutory reaffirmation of the foundations of commercial law: Contracts must be honoured, statutory processes cannot be unilaterally set aside, power validly contracted under a PPA can only be curtailed for technical reasons. At the same time, in a well functioning market economy, these events from 2018 to 2022 -- and the associated commercial consequences for private persons -- should have never taken place. Every investor looks at this fracas and chooses a somewhat higher risk premium for doing business in India.

Implications for the Indian legal system

It is important to analyse what shapes these attempts at state immunity from contract law. In what ways can laws be amended, or principles be evolved, so that such attempts are eliminated or at least minimised?

Perhaps the Andhra Pradesh Discoms will appeal to the Supreme Court of India in this matter; perhaps the challenge to the Punjab PPA law will find its way to the Supreme Court. It is then interesting to envision: What is the Supreme Court order that can usefully underline the foundations of the extant contract law, and thus reduce the incentives to embark on such manoeuvres?

While a Supreme Court order in this regard might act as a deterrent in the future, the problem lies in the culture of government institutions, who are conditioned to exhaust all available means of reducing costs, irrespective of the merits of their position and the chances of success, out of fear of vigilance authorities. A solution would be for the government to develop guidelines and instructions setting out the bases on which appeals should be pursued or not.

In developing such guidelines, some of the questions for the state to consider would be as follows: Suppose the probability of success of such attempts at renegotiating are 0. Is it still efficient for a state government to initiate it? As Karan Gulati and Shubho Roy emphasise in a forthcoming paper, could it be that the time value of money that is used in Indian court orders make it efficient for the state government to embark on litigation that it has no possibility of winning? We need to also analyse the Indian justice system from this point of view, and identify the reforms through which the incentive of a state government is reshaped.

Implications for electricity policy

As we have argued before, the Indian electricity sector has suffered from difficulties for a long time, but the recent years represent an escalation of stress to a different level. This comes from the combination of low price renewables, volatility in fuel costs, the impact of ESG investors abroad upon electricity purchase by large Indian firms, and the accelerating exit of commercial and industrial buyers from discoms.

It is sometimes comforting to think that discoms in India have always had problems. But the problems seen today are worse. Faced with extreme stress, there is an appetite for extreme measures. When the policy process is weak, there is a greater likelihood of poorly designed policy measures being adopted, such as attempts at reneging on contracts. When even a few discoms engage in such behaviour, this reduces the investability of the Indian electricity sector in areas that have connections with the Indian state.

We should see each of these eruptions as illustrations of the underlying stress, and reorient ourselves towards the required fundamental electricity reform.


We thank Charmi Mehta for research assistance on this article.

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Implications of free transmission of renewable energy

by Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah.

Inter-state electricity transmission

Transporting electricity across long distances requires investments in the transmission system where high voltages are used to minimise losses. An emphasis on renewable electricity generation requires significant new transmission capacity to transport electricity from the natural locations for generation (e.g. Himalayan hydel, or SPV in Rajasthan) to the centres of consumption in the peninsula. In an announcement in December 2021, 23 inter-state transmission system (ISTS) projects have been initiated by the government, at a cost of Rs.159 billion.

As with other elements of the electricity system, investments in transmission would ideally be done through the price system, where the price for transmission is discovered on a market. Once the price system is in motion, present or anticipated high prices would create incentives for investment in transmission. The structure of the Indian electricity market does not permit this: as this announcement of 23 projects shows, we effectively have a centrally planned system where officials control the resource allocation, and only bring in private firms as vendors playing a defined role in a centrally planned system. Transmission investments and prices are largely government controlled, and not discovered through the price system, which always involves misallocation of resources.

In the remainder of this article, we discuss the outlook on ISTS and its implications for renewable energy. To summarise ISTS, it is an electricity grid that runs across the entire country. It connects to end-points who are either generators or users. There is a process, and there are rules and capacity constraints, which determine whether a given person gets on to ISTS. Once a person is physically on ISTS, they are directly buying and selling from others on ISTS; these transactions are immune to the policies of the local discom. There is one constraint: the buyer and seller on ISTS cannot be within the same state.

Special prices for transmission of renewables

The CERC (Sharing of Inter-State Transmission Charges and Losses) Regulations, 2010 had some remarkable clauses: 7(u) and 7(v) established that for a period of three years, solar generation would be charged zero rates for transmission charges or losses. This suggested a world where a solar generator could sell to any buyer in India with no friction from transportation. These zero charges have been expanded and carried forward to cover all renewable energy commissioned till 30 June 2025. For renewable energy projects commissioned prior to 30 June 2025, for a period of 25 years, there will be no charge for transmission. For projects commissioned from 30 June 2025 onwards, the charges come back in gradually, to a level of 100% of the normal charge for projects commissioned after 1 July 2028. This creates a special deal for any renewables project that gets to the finish date by 30 June 2025.

Open access through discoms: In the present legal system, discoms are supposed to give out ‘open access’, where a buyer and seller of electricity are able to privately negotiate transactions, and have guaranteed access to the transportation services of the discom for the transport or electricity within or outside the state. In practice, this de jure situation does not map out into the de facto: many discoms refuse to provide or otherwise impede these services, as they would like to continue overcharging their best customers.

Open access through ISTS: Transmission across the state border through the ISTS seems to offer an increasingly viable way out of this barrier. It appears that when a renewables generator connected to the ISTS network sells to a third party outside the state who is also connected to the ISTS network through a PPA, neither of the two discoms can impede the transaction. This has been possible for a while, but the expansion of ISTS mentioned above will make such transactions more accessible to a wider range of sellers and buyers.

We could thus have generator $A$ in Dahanu (at the north end of Maharashtra) who is unable to sell to a buyer $B$ in Palghar (40 kilometres away), but she would be able to sell to a buyer $C$ who is across the state border in Vapi (at the south end of Gujarat, 70 kilometres away), assuming that connectivity to ISTS exists.

Implications

There are two kinds of ‘free’ in the title of this article. One refers to transportation of electricity without paying for it. Another refers to economic freedom: rational transactions under open access which are impeded and disincentivised within and across states (between a renewables generator and a buyer) and those using ISTS that are seemingly encouraged across the state border. What are the implications of these two kinds of free coming together?

There is no free lunch. When transportation is subsidised for renewables, someone has to pay for this. This can either be an explicit on-budget subsidy, or it can be a within-sector subsidy. In the Indian case, when government-owned transmission utilities undercharge transmission for renewables, this comes with higher prices for fossil fuel generators. Such tax-and-subsidy policies normally require sophisticated public finance analysis, which is not visible, thereby elevating the risk of unanticipated effects.

The ability of renewables generators to frictionlessly transport electricity across state borders is likely to significantly impact upon the distorted pricing being run by discoms. The paying customers (C&I) in any state have a strong incentive to cut the discom out of the transaction and directly buy from any generator. In addition, some C&I customers have ESG equity investors, and need to demonstrate they are using renewable energy. Both imperatives create incentives for C&I customers in each state to find a renewables generator somewhere in India (but not in their own state, where ISTS transactions are absent), and buy directly, thus avoiding the exaggerated prices charged by the discom and freeing themselves from their often unreliable service.

We will have situations where a Gujarat renewables generator will sell to a Maharashtra C&I customer, while at the same time a Maharashtra renewables generator will sell to a Gujarat C&I customer. At an engineering level, transmission between two states would only take place in one direction, and the two streams would get netted out. This would yield the efficient outcome where in each state, buyers and sellers achieve higher economic freedom, and are less controlled by the discom.

Zero or low pricing for transmission of renewables has been around for a while, but earlier there were capacity constraints in inter-state transmission which was holding back this process. The substantial expansion of the ISTS described above would help translate the threat of exit by an increasing number of C&I users into a reality. The rise of ESG investment is also relatively recent. We would hence hazard a guess that these transactions will become more important by 2023 and 2024.

In a recent paper, we argued that the Indian electricity sector in 2021 or 2022 is different from what was seen in the preceding 30 years. While electricity went along a muddled path of non-reform for decades, while private participation only came into the edges of a fundamentally centrally planned system, the stress on the incumbent system is mounting. We are coming to the point where the good old ways are untenable. Inexpensive ISTS, which enables C&I customers to buy cheap renewables from across the state border, adds to this scenario. Other recent developments are also pushing discom finances over the edge [example].

We expect that increased ISTS access will increase economic freedom, and help private investors think more in terms of market opportunities rather than regulatory constraints. But this present moment of the policy configuration will also not be seen as stable, for a 25-year horizon, by private investors. What the state giveth, it can equally take away. All in all, we expect that discom finances will weaken, the ROE in renewables will go up, but the impact upon investment will be somewhat muted owing to fears about the next string of policy actions.