Search interesting materials

Monday, July 20, 2009

Business cycle conditions

I wrote a piece in Financial Express today about current developments in the economy.

This uses the website which we recently setup which has seasonally adjusted data for a few Indian monthly time-series. This data was updated this morning.


  1. I think this is a great idea. I always see seasonally adjusted charts in all the websites abroad and always wonder why this is not done here.

    I have a few suggestions to make the site more user friendly.
    1. Add a permanant link to the site on your page. Also link to the charts from the main page.

    2. Provide a table for the growth rates so that the latest growth rates are easily seen. You can do for example IIP (seasonally adjusted) , month on month and year on year for the last year.

  2. When you go to the web page, click on the "report" (which is a pdf file). This has a table of recent values: nsa level, sa level, yoy growth, point on point sa growth, and the 4 month moving average of point on point sa growth.

  3. "If such conditions continue, and if WPI is a good measure of inflation, then interest rates in real terms are extraordinarily high considering that this is a downturn. It is ironic that real rates were low when business cycle conditions were pleasant and real rates have gone up when business cycle conditions have gone bad. This raises questions about India's monetary policy framework. "

    My Comments: In my previous posts I have reasoned why this statement about real rates has limited analytical value.


Please note: Comments are moderated. Only civilised conversation is permitted on this blog. Criticism is perfectly okay; uncivilised language is not. We delete any comment which is spam, has personal attacks against anyone, or uses foul language. We delete any comment which does not contribute to the intellectual discussion about the blog article in question.

LaTeX mathematics works. This means that if you want to say $10 you have to say \$10.