Law | Economics | Policy
I see it as a wonderful opportunity for swing traders actually.And secondly, canny investors should be buying now, because if VIX are to stand for common fear, then hell yeah, I better be greedy at this time.
and you wanted to short the VIX...
As Alan Greenspan would say, I am truly shocked at the events! :-)I do think that shorting VIX at 58 will make money in the end. But not just yet.
hehe... Of course, yes shorting VIX will actually make sense... But its atleast [please God, don't make me commit the mistake of predicting bottoms ;)] one-two months away.SohamJumpup
Ajay,Before you can wait for the VIX to retrace to 40 or below (assuming writing naked calls or buying puts and time decay in place), you will have been marginned out.With a professional broker your implied short positions would be automatically liquidated and you will suffer enormous losses.Remember the VIX peaked at 150 or so during the 1987 crash. This is bigger than 1987 and 1929 combined.
Ajay,The long-run average for the VIX is 20(data from 1993)and the standard deviation is 7. This year alone the VIX has moved from 23.83 on Jan 2 to 86.15. At these levels the VIX is at 8 standard deviations.
Folks,My data for VIX starts on 2 Jan 1990. Do you have access to the series before this? I had no idea what the values in 1987 were.
Ajay,Here is the link to download the VIX data from 1986. http://www.cboe.com/micro/VIX/historical.aspxThe subtle thing to note is that the VIX prior to 2003 represented implied volatilities of options on the S&P 100 index and since 03 the underlying index is S&P 500http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIXOne of the bloggers is right, the VIX on the black monday on 20th and 21st Oct 1987 was 171 and 138.
Yogesh,Ain't CBOE giving VIX for American Markets?I think Ajay is talking about NSE VIX
Jumpup,No, I on the VIX as in the uncertainty about the US S&P 500 index.
Thanks Ajay,My bad :)SohamJumpup!
Please note: Comments are moderated. Only civilised conversation is permitted on this blog. Criticism is perfectly okay; uncivilised language is not. We delete any comment which is spam, has personal attacks against anyone, or uses foul language. We delete any comment which does not contribute to the intellectual discussion about the blog article in question.LaTeX mathematics works. This means that if you want to say $10 you have to say \$10.