Announcements

Researcher Position in Policy oriented Research

Policy oriented research: we build knowledge on the working of government and how improvements can be made, and carry the knowledge through into connections into the real world reform process. We stand on the modern understanding of the Indian state and the difficulties of the Indian development journey, that fuses public economics, law and public administration, as seen in the ISOTR book. The X in XKDR Forum stands for Inter-disciplinary: we integrate diverse strands of knowledge into innovating on the question at hand. Of particular importance are the fields of public finance, legal system reform, household finance, and climate change. Our thinking in each of these fields takes from and feeds into the big picture of Indian development strategy.

We are looking for someone with interest and experience in regulation of global finance and cross-border flows.

The right person for this role will hold an undergraduate degree in Law such as B.A.L.L.B. (Hons.) / B.B.A.L.L.B. or graduate degree in Law such as an L.L.B. Familiarity with FEMA, banking laws and regulations, and corporate law is a plus. Of great importance is collaboration with the quantitative researchers in XKDR Forum.

Please look us up at: website, youtube channel, open source releases, annual conference, newsletter on substack.

The remuneration offered will be commensurate with your skill and experience and will be comparable with what is found in the Indian research ecosystem.

Interested candidates must email their resume with the subject line: Application for "Research Associate" at XKDR Forum, to Ms. Shyna Adhiya at careers@xkdr.org by 30th November, 2025.

Electricity cost recovery and the political imagination: A comparison between private and public distribution in India's biggest cities

by Ajay Shah and Susan Thomas.

The problem

The Indian electricity system has major problems. It suffers from a central planning problem, where officials control the resource allocation, which undermines efficiency and innovation. It has a carbon emissions problem, with the lack of an effective path into the clean energy transition. It has a public finance problem, where debt sustainability in some states is materially affected by theft and by subsidies are paid for by the exchequer. As an example, in Mehta et al. 2024, we show that for Tamil Nadu, "A complete electricity sector reform versus business-as-usual translates into an FY 2028 outcome for the debt/GSDP ratio of 32.47% vs. 43.53%, and an IP/RR ratio outcome of 19.71% vs. 26.12%".

A root cause of these difficulties is subsidised and stolen electricity. As there is no free lunch, the lost revenues have to show up as a combination of explicit budgetary allocations for electricity subsidies, or distress for the distribution company. The precise mechanisms through which electricity is stolen are surprisingly subtle, e.g. as shown in Mahadevan 2024, which casts a shadow on conventional measures of AT&C losses. While there is some movement in favour of more transparent on-budget subsidies (Jaitly and Shah 2024) in states such as Karnataka, the overall problem reflects a combination of transparent on-budget subsidies, weak bill collection, and theft.

Figure 1: Feedback loops in the Indian electricity system

Source: Figure 10 (page 15) from Jaitly et al. 2025.

 

As Figure 1 shows, there are multiple positive feedback loops in operation in the Indian electricity system, which are grinding away, worsening the distress. Inadequate payment leads to SEB distress, which in turn forces high tariffs on paying C&I consumers, driving them to exit the grid and further worsening SEB finances. Inadequate payment for electricity, by many firms and households, is the core problem which then plays out in various ways.

The developments in Pakistan in recent years give us illustrations of how such causal forces could play out in the future in India (Economic Times, 2025). Conversely, the imposition of a single price for electricity applied to all buyers of electricity would materially change these feedback loops by alleviating financial distress in electricity distribution.

Household data as a research tool

A significant amount of theft of electricity is surely done by firms, who have high incentive to put in effort to obtain stolen electricity. But the overt political problems of subsidised electricity for households or agriculturists, and the political economy problems of a large number of persons stealing electricity, are uniquely present in the household sector. Household survey data offers valuable knowledge about the problems. Instead of starting from budget disclosures and the data as reported by distribution companies, we go bottom up by asking households what they pay for electricity. There are grounds for trusting the CMIE CPHS measurement of electricity expenditures at the household level (Das et al. 2024).

Figure 11 (page 19) from Jaitly et al. 2025 shows how electricity expenditures in the household data in Tamil Nadu are unusually low by Indian standards. While this appears out of line when we think that Tamil Nadu is richer than the overall Indian average, there is a need for more careful analysis which compares similar households and juxtaposes different arrangements for electricity distribution.

The gains from private distribution

In the present research, we focus on two groups of the biggest Indian cities with alternative electricity distribution arrangements. Bombay, Delhi and Calcutta have private distribution. Bangalore and Madras have public sector distribution. Using the CMIE CPHS data, we work out the median household expenditure on electricity in these two groups of cities. These are large datasets: In 2024, Bangalore and Madras add up to 1,641 households and Bombay, Calcutta and Delhi add up to 2,667 households. Given these large sample sizes, the median estimates are statistically robust. Weighted estimates are used, which can be interpreted as populated-weighting across the cities.

 

Figure 2: Median household electricity expenditure in large cities, private vs. public electricity distribution

Source: Authors' calculations using CMIE CPHS data

Figure 2 shows these facts. This shows much superior cost recovery for households in cities with private distribution. Further, it shows that over the years, the payment per urban household under public sector distribution has actually declined in nominal terms. With private distribution, it has risen. This rise is consistent with increased ownership of electricity-consuming appliances over these three years, by urban households, and the rising price of electricity in the context of overall inflation based on the inflation target of 4%. That expenditures by households under public sector distribution have not risen, in nominal terms over three years, is a remarkable finding.

While we may broadly think that household prosperity in Bombay, Delhi and Calcutta is similar to that seen in Bangalore and Madras, we control for this by placing households into nationwide urban consumption quartiles.

Quartile	Median Cons.	Median electricity (private)	Median electricity (public)
	(monthly)	(monthly spend)	(monthly spend)
Q1 (poor)	10,536	500	0
Q2	14,755	665	0
Q3	19,307	775	0
Q4 (rich)	29,522	1500	75

The quartiles are formed based on the all-India distribution of urban household consumption as seen in the CMIE CPHS data in 2024. The all-India median urban consumption runs from Rs.10,536 a month for the poorest quartile to Rs.29,522 a month for the richest quartile. With this in hand, all the urban households in Bombay, Delhi, Calcutta and then Bangalore and Madras are placed into the appropriate quartile bins. Since the bins are based on all-India urban consumption, households in each group (private distribution/public distribution) will not be equally split across the quartile bins. As we are studying the biggest cities in India, more households are likely to be slotted in higher consumption bins. We report the median value of the monthly electricity expenditure for the two groups.

These results show that after controlling for affluence of the households, public sector distribution obtains much lower payments for electricity when compared with private sector distribution. In the future, this work needs to be made statistically more rigorous by setting up a matching scheme where households in Bangalore/Madras are matched to households in Bombay/Delhi/Calcutta based on asset ownership. However, the magnitude of the difference suggests the core finding is robust.

The political economy of the Indian electricity sector

These results shed light upon questions of political economy. Politicians in states like Karnataka or Tamil Nadu are used to thinking that it is difficult to force households to pay for electricity. Politicians in Delhi, Maharashtra and West Bengal have successfully squared this circle: they are able to impose much higher expenditures upon urban households, with the consequential gains for the health of the electricity system and for state public finance.

The most striking finding here is the table organised by consumption quartiles. Why do top quartile households of one group pay Rs.1500 a month for electricity while the same kinds of households of the other group pay Rs.75? This table helps expand the political imagination across the country: What are the politicians of Maharashtra, Delhi and West Bengal getting right, that others are not? There should be a strong demonstration effect here: How are politicians in Maharashtra, Delhi and West Bengal doing the right thing and politically surviving? What is the political settlement in these states that has enabled their superior durable arrangement?

A striking feature of these results lies in the fact that Delhi, which is pooled with Bombay and Calcutta in this work, actually has a large on-budget electricity subsidy program. Even though Delhi has a big subsidy program going, we have a strong result where the group of cities with private distribution includes Delhi. This suggests that private distribution adds value even under a large on-budget subsidy. This brings a new nuance to the debates around the gains from a transparent on-budget subsidy (Jaitly and Shah, 2024). Private distribution, which brings gains in collection and theft reduction, seems to matter over and above the standard public finance gains from a transparent on-budget subsidy.

Conclusion

These results reflect a summary statistic of the working of the electricity system in the two groups of cities, bringing together all aspects that impact household payments for electricity, including overt subsidies, various mechanisms of theft, and the efficiency of bill collection. Future research is required on the sources of improvement through private distribution. Is it better metering and billing technology? A regulatory framework that insulates tariff-setting from short-term politics? Better enforcement against theft?

Section 9.7 of Jaitly et al. 2025 shows the elements of information that go into monitoring the electricity reform at the level of one state of India. The analysis presented here carries this objective one step forward.

This article emphasises the comparison between five cities and not states. Potentially, there can be a divide-and-conquer approach where urban distribution reforms are separated out from the remainder of the state. Once a successful distribution company is established, its footprint can be gradually enhanced, e.g. there is a ready path for the successful private distribution model in Bombay to cover the full footprint of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR).

Jaitly and Shah, 2021, emphasise that the path to the Indian climate transition runs through the problems of the electricity sector. The political economy of electricity subsidies and theft is a key problem holding back the electricity sector. The empirical political economy results here help illuminate the questions and show pathways to progress.

Such natural experiments, with different parts of the country trying different things, represent the gains that come for the electricity system from the Constitutional scheme where electricity was largely made a state subject. When only one solution is used all through the country, there is reduced experimentation and inferior knowledge. There is much merit in the subsidiarity principle: problems should be placed at the lowest level of the government where they can possibly be placed (Shah and Varma, 2024).

Bibliography

The Price of Power: Costs of Political Corruption in Indian Electricity, Meera Mahadevan, American Economic Review vol. 114, no. 10, October 2024 (pp. 3314–44).

The usefulness of the CMIE household survey data for electricity research in India, Susan Das, Renuka Sane and Ajay Shah, The Leap Blog, 8 May 2024.

Pakistan's quiet solar rush puts pressure on national grid, Economic Times, 16 July 2025.

The lowest hanging fruit on the coconut tree: India’s climate transition through the price system in the power sector, Akshay Jaitly, Ajay Shah, XKDR Forum Working Paper 9, October 2021.

Electricity subsidies are getting better, Akshay Jaitly and Ajay Shah, Business Standard, 26 May 2024.

Electricity reforms in the economic strategy of Tamil Nadu, Akshay Jaitly, Renuka Sane, Ajay Shah, XKDR Forum Working Paper 38, February 2025.

The electricity chokepoint in Tamil Nadu public finance, Charmi Mehta, Radhika Pandey, Renuka Sane, Ajay Shah, XKDR Forum Working Paper 31, February 2024.

India needs decentralisation, Episode 47 of Everything is everything, 17 May 2024.

Announcements

10 Years of the IBC: Conference

07^th - 08^th November, 2025

In 2026, it will be ten years since the Indian Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (the IBC) was enacted. This milestone offers an opportunity to reflect on what the law has achieved - what was envisioned at its inception, and where we stand today.

Over the past decade, the IBC has reshaped India's credit landscape, influencing how firms, creditors, and markets respond to financial distress. This conference brings together policymakers, regulators, practitioners, and researchers who have engaged with the IBC and the broader credit market ecosystem, to take stock of its journey and discuss the road ahead.

The agenda can be found at https://www.xkdr.org/event/10-years-of-the-ibc.

If you are interested in attending, please contact outreach@xkdr.org.

Event Details

• Date: 07^th - 08^th November, 2025
• Location: Boundary Hall, MCA Bandra Club, Mumbai

How Indians rank their rights: what 26 interviews tell us about Article 19 and property

by Prashant Narang.

Citizens treat property as the material anchor that makes other freedoms meaningful; livelihood-enabling freedoms are prioritised, while free speech is cherished but policed asymmetrically.

In 1978, the Forty-Fourth Amendment removed the right to property from the Constitution's catalogue of fundamental rights. Lawyers and economists have debated the implications ever since. But do ordinary citizens internalise that demotion? This post introduces our Socio-Legal Review note - co-authored by Sehar Abdullah, Keerthana Satheesh, and Prashant Narang- which steps outside the courtroom to ask a simple question with big policy consequences: which rights do people treat as most important in their daily lives - and why? Drawing on 26 in-depth interviews across professions that are especially sensitive to rights restrictions (journalists, migrants, MSME owners, cab drivers, farmers, artists, street performers and more), we map how citizens rank the Article 19(1) freedoms alongside the right to property. The top-line finding: people continue to see property as foundational - often the precondition that makes other freedoms meaningful.

What we did

We used purposive and snowball sampling to reach respondents aged 19-65 whose livelihoods could be directly affected by limits on speech, association, movement, residence, profession, or on property. Most interviews were conducted in Delhi, with additional remote interviews in Kerala, Chennai, and Bengaluru. We piloted the instrument, then ran a three-part interview: background and demographics; general views on freedoms and "reasonable restrictions"; and case studies with graded constraints (for example, permits and bans; "public order" versus epidemic) to elicit trade-offs. Transcripts were thematically coded. This is qualitative research; insights are directional, not population estimates.

What we heard: the lived hierarchy

• Property as cornerstone - Across backgrounds, respondents described property as livelihood, security, and autonomy "a means to earn a living", as one farmer put it. People resisted permissions on buying and selling land and were most animated by compulsory acquisition scenarios. Support for acquisition often hinged on compensation: market-linked and predictable when the purpose was clearly public (for example, a metro), with sharper bargaining when it looked commercial (for example, a mall). The underlying intuition is economic: when property underwrites household security, the perceived risk of under-compensation looms large.
• Economic freedom as a gateway - Freedoms that enable livelihood - movement and residence for migrants (Article 19(1)(d) and (e)) and choice of occupation (Article 19(1)(g))- were consistently prioritised. A photojournalist linked movement directly to earning; an activist framed profession and property as part of a single "socio-economic" relationship that the state should ease rather than police. This fits a law-and-economics intuition: secure property and open markets reduce dependence and expand feasible choices, which then support speech and association.
• The free-speech asymmetry - Respondents valorised free expression for themselves - journalism as "the fourth pillar", bans as "the end of democracy" - but many were readier to restrict others, often using elastic notions of "harm" or "extremism". In short: pro-speech for me, pro-restriction for you. That asymmetry is a legitimacy warning: broad, vague grounds for curbing speech match the public's weakest intuitions and risk becoming catch-alls.
• Residence as identity - The right to reside and settle anywhere (Article 19(1)(e)) surfaced as a surprising anchor of national belonging. Several interviewees described the ability to live anywhere as central to Indian diversity - inking mobility to both opportunity and citizenship.

Why this matters for policy design

• Compensation design - Where acquisition feels commercial, citizens bargain harder and distrust adequacy; where purpose is plainly public, opposition is more about predictability than principle. Legislatures and agencies should therefore tighten "public purpose" definitions and commit to clear, market-linked compensation formulas (benchmarks, indexation, relocation assistance) and process timelines that reduce uncertainty rents and litigation.
• Targeted deregulation for livelihood rights -Frictions on movement, residence, and small-enterprise activity (permits, zoning that criminalises street vending, opaque lease and tenancy formalities) bite hardest on those who use these rights to earn. Policy wins lie in simplifying titles and transfers, digitising and time-bounding consents, rationalising vending, parking, and market rules, and reducing compliance steps for micro-businesses - exactly where our respondents located day-to-day pain points.
• Speech rules that travel well - The asymmetry we observed - tolerant for self, restrictive for others - suggests two drafting heuristics: (i) avoid vague grounds like "offence" without a tight harm standard, and (ii) pair restrictions with necessity-and-proportionality tests that officials must evidence ex ante. Narrow tailoring not only protects rights but also matches citizens' strongest defence of speech (for themselves) while tempering expansive instincts to curb others.

What this does not claim

This is a qualitative, urban-skewed sample. We do not estimate a numeric hierarchy or claim causal links between income and preferences. Our aim is to surface design hypotheses and legitimacy risks that can be tested at scale and used now for better drafting and implementation. Rural and longitudinal work are obvious next steps.

The big picture

Constitutional amendments can change a right's formal rank without changing its everyday salience. In our interviews, property remains the backbone of autonomy and a hedge against shocks; livelihood-enabling freedoms are the everyday workhorses; and speech is cherished but policed asymmetrically. For policymakers and drafters, the take-away is practical: align legal categories and procedures with how citizens actually use and trade off rights. That means predictable compensation and acquisition processes; frictions-down reforms for movement, residence, and micro-enterprise; and narrowly tailored, evidence-based limits on expression. This is the path to a constitutional order that people recognise in their daily choices - not just in the statute book.

Read the paper

Rights in the Eyes of the Beholder: The Lived Hierarchy of Rights in India's Democracy - Socio-Legal Review, 21(1), 2025. Authors: Sehar Abdullah, Keerthana Satheesh, and Prashant Narang.

Prashant Narang is a researcher at TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation.

Announcements

Researcher Position in Quantitative Research

Quantitative research: we integrate multiple datasets (household survey data, firm data, macroeconomic and financial time-series, satellite imagery, legal systems data, other custom datasets) to obtain insights into the world aiming for academic research and real world applications. Along the way, we innovate on methods. Here are some examples: self reported health, informational efficiency of credit ratings, the working of financial markets, improved methods for nighttime lights radiance satellite imagery. We build open source packages in Julia and R, partly to do better computation around existing methods, and partly to express our innovations in statistical and computational methods.

We are looking for someone with interest and experience in cross border-flows and global finance.

The right persons for quantitative research at XKDR Forum are those who have knowledge of mathematics, statistics, computer science and economics, and take interest in the world, in applying quantitative tools to obtaining insights into the world. Existing capabilities in Python, R, or Julia are a requirement, as well as some econometrics background. Of great importance is collaboration with the policy oriented researchers in XKDR Forum.

Please look us up at: website, youtube channel, open source releases, annual conference, newsletter on substack. The remuneration offered will be commensurate with your skill and experience and will be comparable with what is found in the Indian research ecosystem.

Interested candidates must email their resume with the subject line: Application for "Research Associate" at XKDR Forum, to Ms. Jyoti Manke at careers@xkdr.org by 30th November, 2025.

A frugal DIY air quality monitor

by Ayush Patnaik.

Particulate matter pollution creates a public health crisis in India and other emerging economies. Yet individuals lack access to immediate, localised air quality data. This data matters for personal decisions: whether to exercise outdoors, wear a mask, or run an air purifier. It also helps test whether air cleaning devices work by comparing inlet and outlet readings.

Air quality varies dramatically across short distances, making hyperlocal measurement essential. Government monitoring stations are sparse and report delayed data. In Haryana, all state AQI stations went offline in April 2025 and remained down for months (Times of India, 2025). Even where stations exist, authorities sometimes relocate them to cleaner areas (Hindustan Times, 2023). Portable commercial devices like the Laser Egg offer an alternative but present barriers to widespread adoption. They cost around Rs. 10,000, are heavy and bulky, and require regular charging.

The Aqui project addresses these gaps. It demonstrates that a DIY product which can enable citizen-led data collection and improve public understanding of local air quality dynamics.

This article updates an earlier version published at LEAP Blog.

Project website: https://ayushpatnaikgit.github.io/aqui/

Design approach

The design follows radical frugality through functional delegation to the host device. It centres on the SDS011 sensor, which costs around Rs. 1,200, for real-time measurement of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations.

This class of low-cost optical sensor has limitations. It degrades within weeks under continuous operation as particles trap in its mechanism (World Air Quality Index, 2025). But the design objective focuses on intermittent monitoring driven by citizen curiosity and spot measurements. This mitigates the degradation issue.

The sensor interfaces directly with Android devices via USB Serial Cable and USB-OTG adapter. This eliminates the need for microcontrollers, displays, batteries, and wireless modules. These components drive cost and bulk in commercial devices. Delegating processing and power to the user's smartphone cuts both.

The Aqui Android companion app is open-source on GitHub. It connects to the sensor over USB serial and streams the live particulate data (PM2.5 / PM10) to your phone.

The physical enclosure uses 3D printing for low-cost replication. The entire project is released under Creative Commons CC0 (Public Domain) dedication. All design files and code are freely accessible for scrutiny, replication, and modification.

Results

Total component cost for a complete Aqui sensor is approximately Rs. 2,000. This includes the SDS011, cables, and 3D-printed enclosure. The cost represents an order-of-magnitude reduction compared to commercial-grade monitors.

The sensor streams live PM data via the companion Android application. Response time is seconds. In controlled demonstrations, the device measured clear differences in PM2.5 readings between a busy road and a park 50 metres away. This immediate visualisation captures real-time pollution gradients missing from centralised data.

People understand air quality differently when they see their own numbers. Abstract government statistics become personal, actionable information that influences health decisions.

Discussion

Aqui addresses practical gaps in air quality monitoring by providing an accessible, data-generating tool. Delegating key functions to smartphones achieves the frugality needed for mass citizen adoption. This fills data gaps created by sparse and delayed government monitoring.

The SDS011 sensor choice remains optimal for intermittent, curiosity-driven spot-checking despite its continuous operation constraints. The policy impact lies in making citizens aware by turning abstract statistics into personal information that directly influences health decisions.

The hands-on nature provides a pathway for scientific curiosity and learning. Users transition from passive news consumers to active environmental investigators. This citizen science mindset, driven by curiosity and enabled by affordable technology, anchors a more responsive and engaged air quality strategy.

Dense networks of distributed Aqui sensors could create curiosity-driven air quality maps. Future work should focus on methodologies for crowdsourcing and aggregating such data.

Resources and build guide

The Aqui project is open-source. All files, documentation, and videos are available:

• Demo video: Aqui in action
• Assembly tutorial: Step-by-step assembly
• Android app: Download APK for sideloading
• Source code: Android app on GitHub
• SDS011 sensor: Example parts link
• 3D print files: Top shell, Base shell
• Full assembly model: STEP file for remixing
• Complete build guide: Parts list and instructions

References

Hindustan Times (2023). "Now, BMC Seeks to Shift Air Quality Monitors to 'Cleaner' Areas." 5 February 2023. https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/mumbai-news/now-bmc-seeks-to-shift-air-quality-monitors-to-cleaner-areas-101675537753172.html.

Times of India (2025). "No Pollution Data from Haryana as All State AQI Stations Offline since April." 29 July 2025. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/no-pollution-data-from-haryana-as-all-state-aqi-stations-offline-since-april/articleshow/122963786.cms.

World Air Quality Index (2025). "The SDS011 Air Quality Sensor Experiment." Accessed 7 October 2025. https://aqicn.org/sensor/sds011/.

Ayush Patnaik is a Senior Research Associate at xKDR Forum. Special thanks to Saurabh Nandedkar for help building the app.

Beyond Pendency: Counting Cases Correctly

by Pavithra Manivannan, Siddarth Raman and Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah.

The discourse on Indian judicial reform is dominated by questions of pendency and the workload of courts. However, official sources of caseload estimates in India have been found to be deficient in terms of both the methodology used, and the quality of underlying data (Jain and Reddy, 2025; Damle and Anand 2020). This leads to miscalculation of the caseload of courts and renders it unamenable for comparison across courts. In this article, we propose a new approach for estimating the caseload at Indian courts. We apply this to analyse the caseload at the Original Side of the Bombay High Court, which accounts for 35% of the total caseload of the Court. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, the caseload at the Original Side of the Bombay High Court (the Court) is being overcounted by 66%. Second, the caseload composition of the Court has remained largely stable over the 7-year period of our study with two case-types, namely, inheritance cases, and writ petitions filed against the government, accounting for half the cases filed in the Court. Third, suits as a case-type generates the most number of sub or interim cases.

In India, there are two official sources that publish information on caseloads - the annual report of the Supreme Court and the National Judicial Data Grid (NJDG). Apart from the quality of the data, there are two specific problems with the estimation methodology used by these sources. First, as a case progresses in a court of law, it generates multiple sub-cases. For instance, if a case is filed as a "Suit" for recovery of money, several interlocutory applications may be filed through which the main money suit (the 'main case') progresses. Such sub-cases could range from simple applications seeking the addition of a new party to the proceedings to an interim injunction seeking a stay on the transfer of assets of the respondent. Currently, the NJDG counts such sub-cases as distinct cases. This leads to overestimation of the caseload, inflating pendency and disposal rates. This is because the hearings for sub-cases are held as part of the main case proceedings. Further, a reading of the orders of cases suggests that more often than not, the final disposal order is common for both the main case and its sub-cases. Second, the taxonomy for case-type categorisation is inconsistent across official sources. The Bombay High Court's website lists 142 case-types on its Original Side. On the other hand, the NJDG reports only 19 case-types for the Original Side of the Bombay High Court. This includes an 'Original' and an 'Other' category, which provides little to no information on the case-type filed in the court. Further, the annual report of the Supreme Court has an altogether different classification system, which cannot be readily mapped to the other two official sources. It has a large bucket under 'Other' which does not have a clear definition. Our approach attempts to address these problems.

We count sub-cases as part of its corresponding main case. That is, we adopt the 'family of cases' as the unit of analysis for caseload estimation. This involves collapsing the 142 case-types on the Original Side of the Court into 17 main case-types and two sub case-types, based on their subject. For example, of the 142 case-types, 80 case-types are in the nature of sub-cases such as "Interim Applications", "Leave Petitions", "Chamber Order Lodging" and "Notice of Motion". We classify these as "Interim Applications" and count these as sub-cases. Similarly, "Arbitration Petitions" and "Arbitration Applications" are categorised as "Arbitration cases". This standardisation of case-types makes the caseload estimation exercise scalable and amenable to comparison across similar courts. The list of the 142 case-types and the classification assigned by us can be accessed here.

Data and Methodology

We collect the life-cycle data of 2,36,953 cases filed at the Original Side of the Court between the period January 2017 to December 2024 (Study Period). The Bombay High Court exercises original jurisdiction or jurisdiction over first time civil cases, and appellate jurisdiction or jurisdiction over cases that come before it as appeals from lower courts. We source the information on the life-cycle of cases filed at the Court's original jurisdiction from its website, and it is comprehensive to the extent the Court has made the data available.

As on the date of our data collection exercise (February 2025), the Court's website reported 1,43,514 (61%) cases as disposed of and 93,254 (39%) cases as pending. If the status of a case was unknown or marked as transferred, we classify it into the 'Other' category (185 cases).

We tag each case in our dataset as a main case or a sub-case. Next, we create a family of cases using the CNR number assigned by the Court as the unique identifier. This family of cases becomes our unit of analysis. Finally, each family of case is classified into one of the 17 case types.

Finding 1: Official sources overestimate caseload

The Court's website shows that about 2.5 lakh cases are filed before its Original Side during our Study Period. That is, on an average, about 30,000 cases are filed every year. However, we find that about 40% of these cases are sub-cases (Table 1 below). Viewed in this light, the 30,000 new cases per year can be understood as an overestimate. The annual average of new main cases filed before the Original Side of the Court is about 18,000, almost half of the original estimate.

Table 1: No. of filings

Nature	Count	Average per-year	% of total
Main cases	1,41,608	17,850	60
Sub-cases	95,435	11,769	40
Total	2,36,953	29,619	100

Finding 2: Six case-types dominate caseload

On applying our categorisation framework, we find that six case-types contribute to about 95% of the caseload at the Original Side of the Court (Table 2). In that, Inheritance cases and Writ petitions constitute half the caseload. We also find that the share of case filings across years for these categories do not vary significantly.

Table 2: No. of filings per case-type

Case Category	Count	% of Total
Writs	36,145	25.5
Inheritance and Succession cases	32,979	23.3
Execution cases	19,779	14.0
Tax cases	19,665	13.9
Arbitration cases	16,529	11.7
Suits	8,652	6.1
Other	7,859	5.6
Total	1,41,608	100.0

Finding 3: Suits generate the most sub-cases

We take a closer look at the number of sub-cases per main case in Table 4 for the top six case-types. We find that, while Inheritance cases and Writ petitions are the highest contributor to the caseload of the Court, Suits that is at the bottom of Table 2, has the highest number of sub-cases per main case. 50% of Suits have upto two sub-cases, suggesting that on a per-case basis, Suits may generate more workload for judges compared to Writ petitions and Inheritance cases.

Table 3: Sub-cases per case-type

Case category	Sub-cases per main case (in %)
	0	1-2	3-5	6-10	>10
Writs	86	13	1	0	0
Inheritance and Succession cases	77	21	2	0	0
Execution cases	86	13	1	0	0
Tax cases	84	16	0	0	0
Arbitration cases	84	15	1	0	0
Suits	31	52	14	3	0

Conclusion

Our finding that the caseload of the Bombay High Court is overestimated by about 66% likely means other courts across India are overreporting caseloads as well. When official sources like the NJDG count sub-cases as distinct new filings, it exaggerates the problem of pendency. This prompts the policymakers to focus on solutions like increasing the number of judges, and creating more courts or courtrooms. Such a sole focus on this metric not only neglects the underlying data quality issues leading to inefficient resource allocation but also ignores the unique challenges that each type of case filed in the court face.

Measures of the economy such as GDP, inflation, and employment rate, took decades to be built and continue to be challenged and improved, by researchers and policy-makers alike. Similar sound systems for the measurement of court metrics, of which caseload is only one part, need to be developed. Such systems are imperative for any meaningful discussion on court reform.

References

Chitrakshi Jain and Prashant Reddy T. Tareekh Pe Justice: Reforms for India's District Courts. Simon and Schuster India, 2025.

Devendra Damle and Tushar Anand. Problems with the e-Courts data. NIPFP WP Series, 314, 2020.

Mugdha Mohapatra, Siddarth Raman and Susan Thomas. Get them to the court on time: bumps in the road to justice. The Leap Blog, 2025.

The authors are researchers at XKDR Forum, Bombay.