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Wednesday, August 01, 2018

A Limiting Principle for the NCLT's New Powers Under the IBC

by Adam Feibelman.

Last week, the NCLT in Mumbai rejected a resolution plan approved by creditors of Jyoti Structures. This comes relatively soon after the Central Government recently enacted some significant amendments to India’s new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. Among the most potentially important of these amendments is a requirement that the National Company Law Tribunals must determine that a debtor's insolvency resolution plan "has provisions for its effective implementation" before approving it. The purpose and scope of this new requirement are unclear, and it could be construed very narrowly or rather broadly. This essay argues that such a requirement can be a useful and valuable component of the insolvency and bankruptcy system, but only if the NCLT judges exercise careful discipline in employing it. Otherwise, it could contribute to pervasive delays and uncertainty in the resolution of insolvency cases. Therefore, this recent amendment will present yet another crucial test in the early development of the IBC system and the role of the NCLT within it. The order explaining the Tribunal's reasoning in the Jyoti Structures case has not yet been released. It is possible that the Tribunal's action was based on a finding that the plan did not provide for effective implementation, but it may have been based on some other rationale. In any event, the Tribunal’s action is likely to provide an important opportunity to assess the NCLT’s role in the insolvency process under the IBC.

Challenging the Logic of the Code

To be sure, the new requirement for approval of resolution plans in corporate insolvencies seems to implicate the core of the animating logic of the Code. One of the primary aims of the new Code is to provide a mechanism for quickly determining if a firm in financial distress would yield more value if reorganized and allowed to continue as a going concern than if it were liquidated for the benefit of its creditors. This function is a key feature of any insolvency or bankruptcy regime, and this decision can be allocated to creditors or to institutional actors or shared by both.

The IBC was designed to empower creditors to make this determination and to dramatically limit or eliminate the authority of judicial officials to do so. Under the Code, after a firm enters the insolvency system, qualified parties can submit resolution plans to a committee of creditors, which is composed of the firm's financial creditors. Most creditors and unrelated third parties are qualified to propose a resolution plan. Promoters of the insolvent firm may also be able to submit a plan unless, among other criteria, they have been a willful defaulter or have owed a loan that is formally non-performing for over one year.

As a general matter, there are very few limitations or constraints on the substantive terms of resolution plans. The Code itself requires that the plan must repay operational creditors – who are excluded from the creditors committee – at least as much as they would receive if the debtor were liquidated, must give priority status to the repayment of costs of the insolvency process, and must provide for the management of the debtor and the implementation and supervision of the plan. Regulations implementing the Code further require that a resolution plan must provide dissenting financial creditors the liquidation value of their claims with priority over the claims of creditors who voted in favor of the plan. To be approved by the committee, a plan must obtain favorable votes from 66% of the voting share of the committee. The voting share required for approval under the Code as originally enacted was 75%, and this was subsequently lowered to 66%, easing creditor coordination and reducing the power of minority creditors to thwart approval.

If a resolution plan is approved by the committee, it is then submitted to the NCLT for approval or rejection. Prior to the recent amendment, the role for the NCLT at this stage was strictly limited to determining whether the plan approved by the creditors' committee satisfied the criteria noted above. Most authorities understood this to mean that the Code did not give any authority or responsibility to the NCLT to assess the terms or substance of a plan approved by the committee or to exercise any judgement or discretion to reject or require any changes to such a plan. (See, for example, Sumant Batra, Corporate Insolvency: Law and Practice (2017), at p.432) But there was some ambiguity in the provisions of the Code, because it did expressly authorize NCLT judges to assess whether plans "provide for the management of the affairs of the Corporate debtor after approval of the resolution plan [and] the implementation and supervision of the resolution plan."

The recent amendments do not fully resolve this ambiguity, but they do now expressly give the NCLT responsibility for determining that a resolution plan can be effectively implemented before approval. It is not clear what motivated this change. Something similar, but much more limited, was recommended by the Insolvency Law Committee. The Committee’s report recommended that “specific power may be given to the NCLT to give directions regarding implementation of the resolution plan while approving it to ensure that a proper implementation strategy has been included in the resolution plan.” But this falls short of the statutory requirement recently adopted that appears to require the NCLT to reject plans that the tribunal believes do not provide for effective implementation.

The U.S. “Feasibility Test”

If the new provision might be understood as authorizing the NCLT to assess the practical or economic viability of resolution plans, a comparative analysis may be illuminating. In the U.S., a bankruptcy court can only confirm a reorganization plan approved by creditors in a Chapter 11 case if it determines that “[c]onfirmation of the plan is not likely to be followed by the liquidation, or the need for further financial reorganization, of the debtor ….” (See 11 U.SC. 1129(a)(11)). This is known as the feasibility test, and the proponent of a Chapter 11 plan bears the burden of establishing that its plan has a reasonable prospect for success. Significantly, courts must evaluate the feasibility of a plan, but that is limited to assessing the proponent’s supporting evidence and argument; courts generally do not conduct an independent analysis of the feasibility of Chapter 11 plans.

This requirement under U.S. law fits within a very different regime with a different underlying approach than that of the IBC system. In the U.S., the managers of firms in bankruptcy have significant control of their bankruptcy process. In most cases, debtors file for bankruptcy protection in the first place, the debtor's managers continue to run the firm, and they have an exclusive right to propose a reorganization plan for a long period after filing for bankruptcy relief. These aspects of the U.S. regime tend to favor efforts to reorganize firms if possible. Added to which, other aspects of the regime make it relatively easy to confirm a plan over the objection of a significant number of creditors. In Chapter 11, plans are voted on by classes of creditors, often grouped by secured and unsecured status as well as other commonalities. To approve a plan, a majority of members of the class holding at least two-thirds of the amount of the debt in the class must vote in favor. In a “voluntary” plan approval, all classes impaired under the plan must vote to approve, and, in any event, every creditor must receive under the plan at least the value they would receive if the firm were liquidated (the best-interests test). If a plan cannot garner approval from every class, it is possible to "cramdown" a plan on dissenting classes of creditors if just one impaired class of creditors votes to approve and the plan "does not discriminate unfairly, and is fair and equitable" to any impaired class of dissenting creditors.

In that system, the feasibility test can serve a particularly important function. Debtors will often have strong incentives to propose reorganizations that have a low probability of success. Managers and related stakeholders of an insolvent firm may have little to lose in a failed reorganization and much to gain in a successful one. The feasibility test makes it harder for a firm in bankruptcy to propose a reorganization that is unlikely to succeed and that will waste the debtor’s assets in the meantime. In a prominent case, In re Made In Detroit, which is often assigned in bankruptcy law courses the U.S. to illustrate the operation of the feasibility test, the debtor proposed a plan to raise financing for a real estate development project that had foundered for lack of necessary permits. The court found the debtor’s reorganization plan failed the feasibility test, primarily because the plan was highly contingent on uncertain financing, did "not provide a reasonable assurance of success," and was "based on ‘wishful thinking’ and ‘visionary promises’." The court instead approved a plan proposed by creditors and, pursuant to that plan, authorized the sale of the property that the debtor was trying to develop.

If the feasibility test under U.S. law is a way to place a limit on debtors seeking to reorganize under with low probability of success, it can also be understood as a means for protecting creditors from each other. In many circumstances, the interests of some creditors will align with those of the debtor’s managers – they will have little to lose from a risky reorganization plan that yields little to them and much to gain from the unlikely success of such a plan. Creditors in that position are often willing to support a debtor's plan that imposes risk on other creditors. Such inter-creditor conflict generally pits different classes of creditors against each other. For example, unsecured creditors or junior secured creditors who would receive very little or nothing in an immediate liquidation may be willing to vote for an infeasible reorganization plan that holds some distant promise of a higher return than and that exposes secured creditors to a likely decline in the value of their collateral. Some unsecured creditors, like employee and trade creditors, may have incentives more aligned with the debtor than with other unsecured creditors. Still other creditors may be protected by credit default swaps and are therefore essentially neutral to the success or failure of a reorganization. In a system that enables a single class of impaired creditors to approve a plan that is then crammed down on non-consenting classes, there is real value in a tool that helps make sure that the debtor and a potentially small group of creditors cannot advance a plan that unreasonably risks waste and loss on the other creditors.

Different Codes, Different Contexts

The new requirement that the NCLT can only approve a plans that "has provisions for its effective implementation" will operate within a very different legal landscape. Under the IBC, the mangers of debtor firms are displaced upon the appointment of an interim resolution professional. Generally, management will not propose resolution plans; in many cases, they will be prohibited from doing so. Perhaps most significantly, the voting framework for approving or rejecting plans removes many opportunities for dramatic risk-shifting in a resolution plan. Operational creditors, a significant portion of unsecured creditors, do not participate in the creditors committee and therefore cannot impose a plan on other creditors. And a because two-thirds of the voting share of the committee of creditors must vote to approve a resolution plan, financial creditors with the largest stake in the outcome of the case will determine whether the plan is approved or not. In sum, the likelihood of approving highly unrealistic resolution plans over significant creditor objection should be much lower under the IBC than under Chapter 11 in the U.S.

That said, however, inter-creditor conflicts will proliferate under any insolvency regime, and the IBC regime will not and cannot eliminate all opportunities for some creditors to impose significant financial risks on other creditors. It is certainly possible to anticipate circumstances in which two-thirds of a firm's financial creditors with relatively little to lose in the process will be willing to support a resolution plan with a very low probability of success that effectively imposes a substantial risk on a minority group of other creditors. The requirement that resolution plans must provide dissenting financial creditors priority for the liquidation value of their claims may serve to limit their risk of loss, but it does not eliminate such risk. One of the broader goals of the IBC is to promote increased use of unsecured credit, especially through the corporate bond market – as that begins to occur unsecured creditors will come to comprise a larger portion of creditors committees. Even now, junior secured creditors may represent a significant portion of value on a creditors committee and may have incentives that are adverse to their senior secureds. The basic point is that no system can fully eliminate the chance that resolution or reorganization plans will be premised on very unlikely contingencies and that some such plans will impose the risk of likely failure on non-consenting creditors. In those circumstances, a tool to police for plans that are unlikely to be successfully implemented can be a useful component of an insolvency or bankruptcy system.

To be clear, such a tool might also be used to sort out unviable resolution plans that reflect efforts by financial creditors to avoid realizing losses in liquidation but that do not "cramdown" risks on other dissenting creditors. But this particular problem is an inevitable risk of an insolvency system designed to give decisional authority to financial creditors; and, ideally, it should be addressed through prudential regulation of banks and other financial institutions.

A Limiting Principle

It is possible that the Central Government did not mean to insert something like a feasibility test into the new corporate insolvency regime; and perhaps this new amendment will be construed to refer to specific conditions that must be satisfied for a resolution plan to be implemented. If the new amendment is understood to be something more like the feasibility test in Chapter 11, however, it is certainly possible that the costs of this new requirement will outweigh its potential benefits. It could invite tribunals to assess the merits of every resolution plan approved by creditors committees; if so, the tribunals could alter the essence of the new insolvency system, undermining a key pillar of creditor control, injecting a heavy dose of judicial oversight, and likely slowing down the process considerably.

But the NCLT need not take such an aggressive approach. It could follow the approach to feasibility in the U.S., where it is a low bar, rarely utilized to block a plan, and a yet a useful tool in extreme cases for policing against gross waste and abuse of dissenting creditors. In any event, the new test should not be construed to require or authorize the NCLT to conduct an independent analysis of the likelihood of success of a resolution plan approved by creditors. It should be enough for the NCLT to assess the committee’s determination that the plan can be effectively implemented based on the resolution professional’s report on the plan. And committees will presumably insulate their decisions by conducting explicit and robust analysis of the viability of the plans put before them and ensuring that this analysis is reflected in the resolution professional’s report to the NCLT. If a dissenting creditor believes a plan cannot be effectively implemented, it should be authorized to raise an objection when the NCLT is considering whether to approve the plan. (See Batra, supra, at p.431) But such challenges can be a slippery slope into the long procedural delays that the Code was designed to eliminate if they become commonplace and trigger searching review by the NCLT.

In sum, if the new amendments to the IBC require the NCLT to determine that resolution plans can be effectively implemented before approving them, this can be a useful tool in the IBC toolkit, but perhaps only in rare circumstances where substantial risks are effectively imposed on non-consenting creditors. If so, the NCLT should view the requirement as a low bar, a rare basis for intervention, and not a general invitation to substantively review resolution plans approved by creditors committees.

 

Adam Feibelman is Sumter Davis Marks Professor at Tulane Law School. The author wants to thank Renuka Sane, Bhargavi Zaveri, and Pratik Datta and two anonymous referees for comments.

Monday, July 23, 2018

Discrepancies in the measurement of household saving

by Radhika Pandey and Renuka Sane.

Data on household financial saving is key to understanding how households save, and the flow of capital from households to firms. In India, households are seen to invest largely in physical assets, causing considerable concern for financial sector policy. This has generated debate on how to improve access to finance and get more households to participate in financial markets.

Accurate and precise measurement is the foundation for any work on financial saving. In the context of data on savings, a number of committees have recommended improvements in the quality of estimates. The issue, however, gets less attention than it deserves. In this article, we study the data on one of the key components of savings: the household financial saving, and highlight some instances of discrepancies between the two data sources on this.

Data on household financial saving in India

There are two sources of data for annual household financial saving in India.

  1. CSO: Data on annual household saving are published by the CSO in its end-January release titled 'First Revised Estimates (FRE) of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation', and revised in the subsequent annual releases. The Gross Financial Savings of Household Sector (at Current Prices) comprises of the following broad instruments: (a) Currency (b) Deposits (c) Shares and debentures (d) Claims on government - which include all the small savings schemes (e) Insurance funds (f) Provident and pension funds.

  2. RBI: Information on financial assets and liabilities of the household sector are available as part of the Flow of Funds (FoF) Accounts published by the RBI annually. FoF accounts map instrument-wise financial flows across five major institutional sectors of the Indian economy on a `from whom to whom basis'. These institutional sectors comprise (a) financial corporations (b) non-financial corporations (c) general government (d) household sector and (e) the rest of the world. RBI has been publishing the 'Flow of Funds' accounts since 1964. This table is part of the Handbook of Statistics on the Indian economy. The RBI estimates are released five months ahead of the CSO release.

    The data on changes in financial assets/liabilities of the household sector (at current prices) comprises of (a) Currency (b) Bank deposits (c) Non-banking deposits (d) Life insurance fund (e) Provident and pension fund (f) Claims on government (g) Shares and debentures (h) Units of UTI (i) (Net) Trade debt.

The data headings under the CSO and the RBI largely map to each other. The CSO provides us with one heading on deposits, while the RBI breaks it into bank and non-bank deposits. The UTI mutual fund is counted under Shares and debentures in both, while the "Units of UTI" heading in the RBI data pertain to Administrator of the Specified Undertaking of the UTI since 2005-06. Trade debt (net) is shown as part of deposits in the CSO scheme of financial instruments.

In theory, there should be similarities between the two. The CSO has been publishing the new series of national accounts with base year 2011-12 since 2015. In line with this new series of national accounts, the RBI also compiled the FoF accounts starting from 2011-12. In both the data-sets, the economy is divided into the five sectors mentioned above. Despite alignment of the sectors, there are discrepancies in the findings from the RBI FoF data and the CSO data.

Discrepancy in the CSO and RBI estimates

We first present the total household financial saving across the last three years between the two data sources in Table 1. The aggregate gross household financial saving for the year 2016-17 from the CSO is Rs 14,048.47 billion, while the RBI reports it to be Rs 18,204.68 billion. This amounts to a difference of more than Rs 4,000 billion for the year 2016-17. The differences in previous years are lower.

Table 1: Gross financial savings of the household sector (Rs.billion) (Base year 2011-12)
Gross financial savings CSO RBI
2014-15 12,572.47 12,826.33
2015-16 15,207.27 15,142.06
2016-17 14,048.47 18,204.68

We next analyse where the discrepancy for the year 2016-17 is coming from. Table 2 presents the instrument-wise share in total financial saving from the two sources in 2016-17.

Table 2: Share of instrument in financial saving 2016-17 (Base year 2011-12)
Share of instrument (%) RBI CSO
Currency -17.4 -22.5
Bank deposits 60.1 62.2
Non bank deposits 1.9 1.8
Insurance 24.2 24.9
Provident and pension funds 16.2 21.5
Claims on government 4.6 4.5
Shares and debentures 10.0 2.6
Net trade debt 0.2 0.3

The biggest source of discrepancy is seen in the share of shares and debentures in total household financial savings. According to the CSO numbers, their share is a meager 2.6% while the RBI numbers suggest that the share of `shares and debentures' is 10%. There are differences in the share of provident and pension funds. The CSO numbers report the share to be 21.5% while according to the RBI figures, provident and pension funds constitute 16% of the aggregate household financial saving. This is surprising because the CSO document explaining the changes in methodology in the new base year series shows that their key data source for estimating household financial savings in shares and debentures is the RBI.

Discrepancy in estimates depending on base year

A question that is often posed is how the share of particular instruments has been changing across time. This is especially important if the government has taken special policy initiatives to promote a specific saving instrument, and wishes to evaluate the policy impact. One such example is the category of provident and pension funds, wherein the National Pension System (NPS) has been given consistent tax breaks over the years.

Table 3 presents the share of pension and provident funds in total financial saving according to different sources. The first column comes from the RBI, Changes in Financial Assets and Liabilities of the Household Sector (RBI) at Current Prices released on September 15, 2017. The second column comes from the CSO, Changes in Financial Assets and Liabilities of the Household Sector at Current Prices : Base Year 2004-05. The CSO series for the base year 2004-05 stops at 2012-13. The third column is CSO, Gross Financial Savings of Household Sector at Current Prices: Base Year 2011-12. It would be fair to expect that for the common years, the series with different base years present comparable estimates. The CSO's document on changes in methodology in the new base year series suggest that the percentage discrepancy in household financial savings between the old and new base year series is 1.8%.

Table 3: Share of pension and provident funds in financial saving
Year RBI (2004-05) CSO (2004-05)CSO (2011-12)
2011-12 10.26 10.32 10.26
2012-13 14.71 10.99 14.71
2013-14 14.93 14.93
2014-15 14.71 15.18
2015-16 18.28 19.18
2016-17 16.26 21.50

There is a huge discrepancy in how the estimates change given the base year. For example, while the RBI data and the CSO data for base year 2011-12 suggest that the share of provident and pension funds in total saving for the year 2012-13 was 14.7%, the CSO's estimates for base year 2004-05 place this at 10.9%. In another year, however we see discrepancy between the RBI data and the CSO data for base year 2011-12. The RBI data shows a decline in the share of pension and provident funds from 18% in 2015-16 to 16% in 2016-17 while the CSO data shows an increase in the share of provident and pension funds from 19% in 2015-16 to 21.5% in 2016-17.

Conclusion

In the past, concerns have been raised on the quality of savings data and on the wide discrepancies visible in the RBI Flow of Funds Accounts and the CSO's data. In fact, the RBI in its August 2016 bulletin has tried to align its methodology with the CSO new base year series. However, despite their efforts, key problems in measurement remain. If there are reasons for the discrepancy, they remain inaccessible in the public domain to researchers. This is a serious concern as any analysis on household saving cannot proceed without accurate, precise and consistent data.

Addendum

Since the publishing of the article, we learned that the RBI overwrites its provisional estimates (released five months ahead of the CSO's release) once the CSO releases its data on household savings. This suggests that ultimately there is only one source of data on household savings, the CSO.

 

Radhika Pandey and Renuka Sane are researchers at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Building State capacity for regulation in India

by Shubho Roy, Ajay Shah, B. N. Srikrishna, Somasekhar Sundaresan.

When India embarked on market oriented reforms in 1991, there was a desire to break with central planning; with detailed government control of entry barriers, product design and processes within firms. This is not synonymous with deregulation: there are market failures in many industries that require addressing. This led to the establishment of regulators. While the Reserve Bank of India has existed since 1934, there was a wave of establishment of new regulators after SEBI was created in 1988.

Regulators were to have legislative powers, to write subordinate legislation which would embed intricate knowledge and change rapidly with the evolution of fast-paced private industries. They were intended to have executive power in licensing and investigations. They were designed to shield transactions (licensing, investigation) from political interference. They were expected to achieve greater State capacity when compared with departments of government improving upon processes such as human resource policies.

The early optimism about shifting from central control to specialised regulators has given way to concerns about the working of regulators. Regulators have also been plagued by poor State capacity.

Regulators have too often veered into controlling as opposed to regulating, with creation of entry barriers and micro-management through regulations. Firms and groups of firms actively seek to co-opt regulators in their business objectives, which has given a return to the political economy of central planning. Entry barriers have sprung up with irrational and arbitrary decisions in licensing. Enforcement of regulations, and substantive law making, is selective and weak. This has induced large costs upon the economy. There is arbitrary power to initiate investigations and punish, and a climate of fear where private persons are afraid to criticise regulators. India of 2018 is uncomfortably similar to the India of 1991.

It is hence important to review the Indian experience, diagnose the sources of failure of existing regulators, and envision how high performance regulators can be obtained. We have a new paper, which is forthcoming in Regulation in India: Design, Capacity, Performance, edited by Devesh Kapur and Madhav Khosla, Oxford: Hart Publishing, 2019 (forthcoming). This article summarises and introduces this new paper.

There are two blind alleys in the quest for State capacity in regulators. It is possible to focus on one episode of a mistake by a regulator, and undertake analysis and advocacy about solving this problem. While a great deal of knowledge can be produced through case studies of failure, it is important to go upstream, to ask questions of incentives and information that lie at the source of repeated regulatory failure.

The second non-solution is a focus on personalities. When institutions are weak, the character of the institution is determined by its staffing. There is, then, a clamour to recruit great men, and then give them all power to do as they like (i.e. extreme regulatory independence). It is important to look deeper, to build institutions that have impersonal capability. For any change to be more than skin deep, it cannot be an idea in the minds of certain individuals; it has to be about the formal structures of governance, accountability, and processes.

Conversely, individuals working in regulators sometimes take criticism personally. However, the failures of an organisation are primarily induced by the design of the organisation. The same individuals would deliver superior outcomes if placed in a better designed organisation.

The focus must be on the incentives of the individuals who man the regulator. If regulators are merely given arbitrary power, public choice theory and the Indian experience shows that this power will be used poorly. What is required is systems of accountability, and checks and balances, through which the individuals working inside regulators have incentives to do the right things. This requires seven elements.

Clarity of purpose. Accountability for an organisation requires clarity on its goals. Every regulatory organisation must have a compact and clearly understood objective. Sprawling mandates, and particularly conflicting mandates, yield poor performance.

Role and composition of the board. The board must be dominated by non-executive members, through which the board can play the role of the Principal vis-a-vis the management which is the Agent. The board must control the organisation design, including organisation diagram, internal process manuals and the budget process. The board must control the legislative function.

Legislative process. When Parliament places law-making power upon unelected officials in a regulator, this calls for commensurate checks and balances in the process of regulation-making. The regulation-making process must start from the board. The staff must document the problem that is sought to be solved, the proposed intervention, and conduct a cost-benefit analysis. This packet must be put out for public comment. After this, the staff must address the public comments on the draft and make appropriate modifications to the draft regulation, and bring the draft back to the board for a discussion. Finally, only the board should have the power to issue a regulation.

Executive process. Sound processes are required in licensing and investigations, which protect citizens from arbitrary power. The non-award of a license causes harm for the applicant, and should use processes similar to those employed when punishing a citizen.

Judicial process An administrative law department should contain administrative law officers, who play no role in legislative or executive functions. This would yield an element of separation of powers. A hearing must take place before an administrative law officer, where the prosecution leads an argument and the defendant is given an opportunity to argue her case. This should lead to the drafting of a reasoned order as a structured document which shows the state of law, the facts of this case, demonstrates that law has been violated, or explain why this conclusion cannot be reached, and uses proper reasoning to determine the penalty. Orders should be published. There should be the possibility of efficacious appeal at a court or tribunal against the order. These three stages of due process (internally, at the administrative law officer, and externally, through publishing orders and at the appeal) create pressure upon the investigation and prosecution staff of regulator to produce high quality work, and protect citizens from arbitrary power.

Reporting and accountability. Regulators should be obliged to release statistical details about their functioning. Reporting should not concern the broader economic environment, e.g. the fluctuations of the stock market index, but should focus upon the actual work of the regulator, e.g. the win rate at the tribunal when orders are appealed. High quality reporting of all aspects of the working of the regulator will create the pressure of accountability, and feed into the budget process where targets can be set and incremental resources allocated in a way that pursues those targets.

The role of the department. Alongside the creation of well structured regulators, there is a need to clarify the role of the department of government, and create capacity in the functions that the department has to discharge.

These seven elements need to be coded into the Parliamentary law. This can be done at the level of one sector (e.g. the draft Indian Financial Code that envisages a single good governance framework for all financial regulators) or for all regulators in the Union government, as was done in the US by the Federal Administrative Procedures Act in 1946.

When compared with these seven elements of the design of a regulator which foster high performance, the present Indian landscape contains large gaps. The regulators of today are defined by skimpy laws, which give arbitrary power to the management, and lack a Principal-Agent perspective upon the working of the regulator. The present legislative framework is grounded in the notion that regulators are good people and will work towards the welfare of the people. This creates poor incentives for good behaviour by regulatory officials.

The FSLRC, chaired by one of us (Justice Srikrishna) drafted the Indian Financial Code, from 2011 to 2015. This draft law embeds the key ideas of this paper. Across the Indian landscape, many experiments are now taking place in building State capacity in regulators. This paper provides a conceptual framework, and 140 sections in the draft Indian Financial Code provides the draft law, for this journey.

Thursday, July 12, 2018

Interesting readings

Three reforms that marked C.S. Rao's Irdai term by Deepti Bhaskaran in Mint, July 10, 2018.

Economic preferences across states in India by Anirudh Tagat in Mint, July 10, 2018.

Project Sashakt: Several steps backward by Debashis Basu in Business Standard, July 9, 2018.

Formalisation of the economy is a form of coercion by Shruti Rajagopalan in Mint, July 9, 2018.

Will Trump Be Meeting With His Counterpart - Or His Handler? by Jonathan Chait in New York Magzine, July 8, 2018.

In Memoriam Peter Christoffersen by Francis X. Diebold in Francis Diebold's Blog, July 5, 2018.

Why Sebi's 'advice' to ICICI Prudential AMC is troubling by Mobis Philipose in Mint, July 5, 2018.

Informational Autocrats by Sergei M. Guriev and Daniel Treisman in SSRN, July 5, 2018.

A little bit of IDBI Bank in my LIC policy by Monika Halan in Mint, July 4, 2018.

The great firewall of China: Xi Jinping's internet shutdown by Elizabeth C Economy in The Guardian, June 29, 2018.

The study of India in the US, by Devesh Kapur, June 29, 2018. Also see.

Photo Finish on Futility Closet., June 19, 2018.

Swachh Bharat Mission: A remarkable transformation by Sudipto Mundle in Mint, June 14, 2018.

OpenStreetMap Should Be a Priority for the Open Source Community by Glyn Moody in Linux Journal, June 11, 2018. Also see.

The right age for leadership roles: How Old Are Successful Tech Entrepreneurs? by Pierre Azoulay, Benjamin F. Jones, J. Daniel Kim and Javier Miranda in Kellogg Insight, May 15, 2018.

Why replacing politicians with experts is a reckless idea by David Runciman in The Guardian, May 1, 2018.

Media censorship and stock price: Evidence from the foreign share discount in China by Rong Ding, Wenxuan Hou, Yue (Lucy)Liu and John Ziyang Zhang in Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, March, 2018.

Persuasive Language for Language Security: Making the case for software safety by Mike Walker.

The worrying rise of militarisation in India's Central Armed Police Forces by Devesh Kapur in The Print, November 29, 2017.

The Wooden Firehouse by Andrew Myers on Wordpress, June 17, 2015.

Saturday, July 07, 2018

Sequencing issues in building jurisprudence: the problems of large bankruptcy cases

by Ajay Shah.

Sequencing in the construction of State capacity in the bankruptcy process: an abstract argument


A big idea in the field of State capacity is that of learning to do simple things before doing difficult ones. Applying this wisdom, in the early days of the Indian bankruptcy reform, it made sense to bring smaller cases into the fledgling process. At an early stage, bringing 12 big cases was problematic.

This is based on a relatively abstract argument:

The stakes are highest with big bankruptcies. The persons who face large losses owing to the working of the bankruptcy process will hire high powered legal teams, and spend money on all means fair and foul, to push the loss to someone else.

A tangible argument


Josh Felman has a tangible argument of how things go wrong when large cases are brought to a fledgling bankruptcy process.

Sophisticated thinking about procedural law is based on thinking about the overall system of incentives, and the overall outcomes, that flow from a certain element of law. The danger lies in looking at an individual case and trying to do justice. Doing justice in an individual case may often harm justice on a larger scale.

The most important innovation in IBC was the 180 day limit for the Committee of Creditors (CoC). If they are not able to make up their minds within 180 days, the company goes into liquidation. Given the difficulties of banking regulation in India, banks have an incentive to delay matters indefinitely, and claim that an asset is worth Rs.100 when in fact it is worth Rs.40. The threat of value destruction in liquidation within six months (where the realisation will be Rs.20) solves the wrong incentives of poorly regulated and poorly governed Indian financial firms.

For this to work, we must have sanctity of process. A default takes place, the CoC is setup, it has 180 days to make a decision, and then the firm goes into liquidation. There should be no possibility of reopening the matter at a later stage.

In any individual case, it may be the case that there are gains from delay, or from reopening the matter after the CoC has made a decision. This may result in increased value realisation in the small (in the one case that we are looking at). But it harms the performance of the bankruptcy process in the large.

Consider the problem of reopening the CoC process after a decision has been made. Once the NCLT makes it known that it is open to such possibilities, it is efficient for a bidder to not participate in the insolvency resolution process (IRP), see the outcome there (e.g. Rs.40) and then go to NCLT promising Rs.41. This would harm the incentives of anyone to participate in the IRP.

What will happen when such situations arise in front of the judge? Suppose there is a Rs.10 million case, where sacrificing the process yields a value gain of Rs.1 million. In this case, it's easier for a judge to be more intellectual, to say that it is a small cost of Rs.1 million for one person in front of him versus the larger gains to society from sanctity of the process.

But if there is a Rs.1 trillion case, the judge will find it harder to be intellectual. She is more likely to be swayed by an attempt at subverting the process in return for a value gain of Rs.0.1 trillion. Once a few cases shape up like this, in favour of justice and not the rule of law, the body of law will be contaminated.

Conclusion


The right way to build State capacity for the bankruptcy reform is to first bring a large number of small cases to judges. At the time, judges are themselves new to this field. A few small mistakes will be made, but jurisprudence is more likely to build up in the right direction: to look for the performance of the overall bankruptcy process rather than to do justice for one plaintiff. This jurisprudence will value the rule of law, and the sanctity of process, over immediate notions of justice. It will induce justice in the large by sometimes sacrificing justice in the small.

If, on the other hand, at a fledgling stage, a large transaction of Rs.1 trillion is brought in front of a judge. This judge is herself relatively unsure about the ideas of the bankruptcy process, and is not adequately guided by prevailing jurisprudence. In this case, the judge is more likely to succumb to the temptation of doing justice in the small, even if this does harm to the rule of law. This will harm the sanctity of process, and contaminate the working of the bankruptcy process.

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

The LTCG tax will increase the cost of investment in India, but not by much

by Gaurav S. Ghosh.

Section 33 is one of the more talked-about provisions of the Finance Act, 2018. This is the section that reintroduces a tax on long-term capital gains (“LTCG”), where the LTCG arises from the transfer of “an equity share in a company or a unit of an equity-oriented fund or a unit of a business unit” (Ministry of Law and Justice, 2018). Under the new law, a tax of ten percent will be liable on all LTCG exceeding INR one lakh, where the LTCG arises from the sale of assets described above held for over a year (Income Tax Department, 2018).

The LTCG tax has come in for scrutiny and criticism in the financial press. Some commentators have predicted negative consequences for small investors (Arora, 2018; Sampath & Thomas, 2018). Others have noted that the tax will lead to double taxation because some securities transactions will bear both the LTCG tax and the already existing securities transaction tax (Sampath & Thomas, 2018; Business Today, 2018). Yet others have pointed out that there is a lack of clarity about the application of the LTCG tax to specific transaction types, including share inheritances, mergers, and initial public offerings (Upadhyay, 2018). The central government has defended the tax by pointing out that it reduces distortions in investment incentives by reducing discrepancies in tax rates across asset classes (The Hindu, 2018; The Telegraph, 2018).

The opinions have been manifold and heterogenous but have been, in the end, no matter how well reasoned, only opinions. There has been a shortage of quantitative economic analysis of the LTCG and its effect on the Indian economy. In this article, we address this gap by presenting our estimates of the impact of the LTCG on the cost of investment in the main sectors of the Indian economy and at the all-India level.

Intuitively, one would expect the LTCG tax to increase the cost of investment since it increases the hurdle rate – the minimum return that an investment project must earn for financial viability – of a project. Consider a simple example where an investment project is financed only by equity and dividends are not distributed. Suppose the investors expect a 7.0 percent post-tax return from the project. Before the LTCG tax, the project would be feasible if it had a pre-tax return of 7.0 percent. Under the LTCG tax, the project feasibility would require a pre-tax return of at least 7.7 percent: 7.0 percent for the investor as capital gains and 0.7 percent for the government as the LTCG tax. The LTCG tax has thus increased the project’s hurdle rate from 7.0 percent to 7.7 percent.

In the example above, the cost of investment increased by the full extent of the LTCG tax. This is not true for a real-world investment whose tax cost is a function of all the taxes associated with the investment, macroeconomic conditions, and the structure of the investment itself. Apart from the LTCG tax, other taxes affecting the investment cost are the corporate income tax and indirect taxes. There are also tax incentives, which may be asset- and sector-specific, that reduce the tax cost of investment. The investment will have a particular distribution of assets – some investments require more transportation assets, others more machinery assets – and this structure too affects the tax cost of investment. This is because each asset has a different tax treatment: if highly taxed assets are a major cost of investment, then the tax cost will be high and vice versa. And macroeconomic conditions like inflation affect the value of benefits like depreciation allowances, and therefore affect the tax cost of investment.

Given the complex relationships that define the tax cost of investment, it is not feasible to predict with certainty what the relationship between the LTCG tax and the cost of investment might be. But two hypotheses might be formulated on the basis of the discussion above. First, the LTCG tax will increase the tax cost of investment; after all, it does increase the cost of project finance. Second, the impact of the LTCG tax will be minor; considering the wide array of factors affecting the tax cost.

Measuring the tax cost of investment requires an adequate modelling framework. The framework should at least have the three following characteristics. First, it should be flexible enough to model the impacts of all taxes and tax incentives on the cost of investment. Second, the model should be well targeted, i.e. it should measure the tax impact on investment, but not non-investment activities. Finally, the model should allow aggregation, such that firm-level data can be used to estimate tax costs at the sectoral or national levels.

One model that meets these criteria is used to measure Marginal Effective Tax Rates (“METRs”). This model uses firm-level and macroeconomic data to estimate the tax wedge on investment, the difference between the pre-tax and post-tax rates of return earned by a marginal investment project. By construction, the METR model only focuses on marginal investment to the exclusion of other aspects of a firm’s business. The METR itself is a function of all taxes and tax incentives levied. These include direct taxes on businesses and investors, indirect taxes on capital purchases, and incentives like accelerated depreciation and tax credits. And the model allows for aggregation from firm-level METRs right up to one national level number.

We have estimated the tax cost of investment using the METR model, which we have developed for India and discussed earlier on this website (see Ghosh & Mintz (2017)). Specifically, we have estimated the tax cost of investment before and after the implementation of the LTCG tax. A comparison of the before and after values provides an estimate of the impact of the LTCG tax on the tax cost of investment.

Figure 1: METRs before and after implementation of the LTCG tax

Source: Own calculations

METRs in the main sectors of the Indian economy and at the overall all-India level are shown in Figure 1. These sectors together comprised 96.5 percent of all investment in the Indian economy in FY2015-16 (Prowess, 2018). Each sector in Figure 1 has three data points. The left-hand column is the METR before the LTCG tax was reinstated, i.e. LTCG tax rate = 0.0 percent. The right-hand column is the METR after the LTCG tax was reinstated, i.e. LTCG tax rate = 10.0 percent. The line shows the change in the METR after the imposition of the LTCG tax.

The results indicate that the LTCG tax has increased the tax cost of investment – as measured by METRs – in all sectors of the Indian economy. The only exception is the agriculture sector, which is the beneficiary of multitudinous direct and indirect tax exceptions. These combine to ensure that the LTCG tax has no effect on the agriculture METR.

Overall, at the all-India level, the METR has increased from a pre-LTCG-tax value of 20.3 percent to a post-LTCG-tax value 21.1 percent: implementing an LTCG tax of 10.0 percent has yielded a 3.9 percent increase in the METR. This is equivalent to an elasticity of 0.03 in the neighbourhood of the LTCG tax rate. One may infer that the METR is barely sensitive to the LTCG tax rate.

The minimal response of the METR to the LTCG tax is confirmed by the result in Figure 2, where a METRs are plotted for a sequence of the LTCG tax rates. Increasing the LTCG rate from zero to 20.0 percent only increases the METR from 20.3 percent to 21.9 percent, an increase of 8.1 percent. The relationship between the LTCG tax and the METR is roughly linear (the relationship is slightly convex, but this is not very evident in Figure 2).

Figure 2: Relationship between the METR and the LTCG tax

Source: Own calculations

Coming back to Figure 1, we see heterogeneity in the METR change at the sectoral level where – not counting agriculture – the change in METRs range from 1.8 percent in the “other” sector to 7.8 percent in manufacturing. The largest [smallest] METR changes are in the sectors with the lowest [highest] METRs. In other words, the LTCG tax has the greatest [smallest] impact on METRs in sectors where investment is least [most] burdened by taxes. The sectors most affected by the LTCG are manufacturing and transportation, which have the lowest METRs. Manufacturing has a low METR because of generous tax depreciation allowances on machinery. The low METRs for the transportation sector depend on firms charging GST under the forward charge mechanism. If the reverse charge mechanism were used, then the METR is much higher because of significant blocked input tax credits. The least affected sectors – “other” and finance” – are also those with the highest METRs. These sectors suffer high METRs because of adverse asset compositions. Overall, it seems that the LTCG tax reduces tax load discrepancies across sectors by a small amount, and thereby contributes marginally to a levelling of the playing field for investment.

In summary, the following can be said about the impact of the LTCG tax on investment incentives in the country. First, the overall relationship between the LTCG tax and the tax cost of investment (as measured by the METR) is positive, but weak. Since the LTCG tax does not change the METR in any significant way, one may infer that it will not affect investment decisions to any significant degree. Second, there is some heterogeneity at the sector level, with sectors with hitherto low METRs worse affected by the LTCG tax change than sectors with high METRs. The LTCG tax therefore makes a (very) small contribution in levelling the playing field for investment. This second result provides weak support for the government’s contention that the LTCG tax will reduce investment distortions (The Telegraph, 2018), although the mechanism differs from that suggested in the referenced article.

Bibliography

Arora, I. (2018, Mar 14). Government receives requests to drop planned long-term capital gains tax.

Business Today. (2018, Feb 05). How LTCG tax affects mutual fund investors.

Ghosh, G., & Mintz, J. (2017, Nov 23). Measuring the pre and post GST tax cost of investment.

Income Tax Department. (2018). Tax on Long-Term Capital Gains, Income Tax Department, Ministry of Finance, New Delhi.

Ministry of Law and Justice. (2018). The Finance Act, 2018 (No. 13 of 2018), Ministry of Law and Justice (Legislative Department), New Delhi.

Prowess. (2018). [cross tabulation of data].

Sampath, A., & Thomas, S. (2018, Feb 09). Long-term capital gains tax on equity: Will it scare away small investors?.

The Hindu. (2018, Feb 06). For more equity: on long-term capital gains tax.

The Telegraph. (2018, Feb 06). LTCG exemption for equities was a risk for small investors, govt says.

Upadhyay, P. (2018, Feb 19). Union budget 2018: Long-term capital gains tax - the unanswered questions.

 

Gaurav S. Ghosh is an economist and Senior Manager at Ernst & Young LLP

Friday, June 15, 2018

Interesting readings

The Centre's approach to Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code has costs by Bhargavi Zaveri in Mint, June 14, 2018.

Going on a hike by Ila Patnaik in The Indian Express, June 13, 2018.

The need for a term money market by Harsh Vardhan in Mint, June 11, 2018.

A wake-up call for promoters by Suharsh Sinha in Business Standard, June 10, 2018.

Carte blanche to notify law requires reform by Somasekhar Sundaresan on Wordpress, June 9, 2018.

As good as a random walk: Inflation forecasting in emerging market economies by Roberto Duncan and Enrique Martínez García in Vox, June 8, 2018.

The best way to save the planet? Drop meat and dairy by George Monbiot in The Guardian, June 8, 2018.

The Millionaires Are Fleeing. Maybe You Should, Too by Ruchir Sharma in The New York Times, June 2, 2018.

Try bankruptcy for Air India's sale in The Economic Times, June 1, 2018. Also see.

Data in a post-truth age by Sonalde Desai in The Hindu, May 30, 2018.

This Isn't Just About Paytm – Laws on Government Access to Data Need to Change by Madhulika Srikumar in The Wire, May 28, 2018.

How nations come together by Andreas Wimmer in Aeon, May 24, 2018.

Chatbots were the next big thing: what happened? by Justin Lee in Growthbot, May 6, 2018.

Love Story by David Brooks in The New York Times, May 1, 2018.

Social Ties in Academia: A Friend Is a Treasure by Tommaso Colussi in The MIT Press Journals, March 2, 2018.

Tech Platforms and the Knowledge Problem by Frank Pasquale in American Affairs Journal, 2018.

AI winter is well on its way by Filip Piekniewski on Piekniewski's blog.

Power Causes Brain Damage by Jerry Useem in The Atlantic, July-August, 2017.

How to eat: bread, rice.