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Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Announcements

Position for researchers In the field of Public Finance and Public Procurement

xKDR Forum is looking for researchers to work on a project with the Chennai Mathematical Institution (CMI), involving studying the impact of public finance management and public procurement issues on the private sector. xKDR Forum is a Mumbai-based inter-disciplinary group of researchers working in the fields of household and firm finance, financial markets, public finance management, public procurement and the land market. In these fields, the organisation engages in academic and policy oriented research, and advocacy.

At present, we are looking for candidates for the profile of Research Associate and Research Lead to participate in an ongoing research program in the field of public finance management and procurement.

Our work in this field includes:

  1. How elements of the Indian state purchase drugs, by Harleen Kaur, Ajay Shah, Siddhartha Srivastava.

  2. Lessons from the Delhi Metro by Pavithra Manivannan, Business Standard, 28th July 2021.

  3. Litigation in public contracts: some estimates from court data by Devendra Damle, Karan Gulati, Anjali Sharma and Bhargavi Zaveri, The LEAP Blog, 26th May 2021.

  4. How large is the payment delays problem in Indian public procurement? by Pavithra Manivannan and Bhargavi Zaveri, The LEAP Blog, 22nd March 2021.

  5. Monetisation lessons from NHAI by Charmi Mehta and Bhargavi Zaveri, Business Standard, 10th March 2021.

  6. The bottleneck of government contracting, by Ajay Shah, Business Standard, 25th January 2021.

  7. What ails public procurement: an analysis of tender modifications in the pre-award process by Shubho Roy and Anjali Sharma, The LEAP Blog, 26rd November 2020.

  8. The payment woes of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai by Anjali Sharma and Bhargavi Zaveri, Business standard, 23rd November 2020.

  9. The problems of public procurement and payment delays: A review of the recent literature by Sourish Das and Rabia Khatun, The LEAP Blog, 23rd November 2020.

  10. Does India need a public procurement law? by Shubho Roy and Diya Uday, The LEAP Blog, 19th August 2020.

As a research associate, you will work on project deliverables under the supervision of a senior researcher. You will be expected to implement defined research tasks, work on written documents, reports and articles and interface with external collaborators and stakeholders. The requirements for the role of a research associate are:

  • An academic background in the fields of Data Science, Law, Economics and / or Public Policy.
  • Minimum one complete year of work experience, preferably in a research intensive organisation.

As a research lead, you will work on project deliverables along with the research head. You will be expected to jointly develop research outputs, work with research associates as well as with collaborators, engage in discussions with external stakeholders and generate at least one working paper in the field each year. The requirements for the role of a research lead are:

  • A strong academic background in the fields of Data Science, Economics and / or Public Policy, with at least two research papers in any of these fields.
  • At least three years of work experience, preferably in a research intensive organisation; very high quality spoken and written English. Experience with running surveys is additionally desirable.

For both roles, candidates with fluency in quantitative skills are preferred. Competency in programming language 'R is a bonus. In keeping with the current work environment at the organisation, a working knowledge of the document preparation system 'Latex as well as the operating system 'Linux are added advantages.

You must be comfortable with working in an inter disciplinary research environment consisting of people from varying backgrounds such as economics, law, public policy and data science. You must be curious and passionate about research and willing to work on independent outputs as well as in teams.

The remuneration offered will be commensurate with your skill and experience and will be comparable with what is found in other research institutions. Interested candidates must email their resume to careers@xkdr.org with the subject line: Application for "Research positions, public finance management"

Announcements

Position for researchers in the field of Household Finance

xKDR Forum is a Mumbai-based inter-disciplinary group of researchers working in the fields of household and firm finance, financial markets, public finance management, public procurement and the land market. In these fields, the organisation engages in academic and policy oriented research, and advocacy.

At present, we are looking for candidates for the profile of Research Associate and Research Lead to participate in an ongoing research program in the field of household finance.

Our work in this field includes:

  1. But clouds got in my way: Bias and bias correction of VIIRS nighttime lights data in the presence of clouds, by Ayush Patnaik, Ajay Shah, Anshul Tayal, Susan Thomas.

  2. Distribution of self-reported health in India: The role of income and geography, by Ila Patnaik, Renuka Sane, Ajay Shah, S. V. Subramaniam.

  3. Does the quality of land records affect credit access of households in India?, by Susan Thomas, Diya Uday.

As a research associate, you will work on project deliverables under the supervision of a senior researcher. You will be expected to implement defined research tasks, work on written documents, reports and articles and interface with external collaborators and stakeholders. The requirements for the role of a research associate are:

  • An academic background in the fields of Data Science, Economics and/ or Public Policy.
  • Minimum one complete year of work experience, preferably in a research intensive organisation.

As a research lead, you will work on project deliverables along with the research head. You will be expected to jointly develop research outputs, work with research associates as well as with collaborators, engage in discussions with external stakeholders and generate at least one working paper in the field each year. The requirements for the role of a research lead are:

  • A strong academic background in the fields of Data Science, Economics and / or Public Policy, with at least two research papers in any of these fields.
  • At least three years of work experience, preferably in a research intensive organisation.

For both roles, candidates with fluency in quantitative skills are preferred. Competency in programming language 'R is a bonus. In keeping with the current work environment at the organisation, a working knowledge of the document preparation system 'Latex as well as the operating system 'Linux are added advantages.

You must be comfortable with working in an inter disciplinary research environment consisting of people from varying backgrounds such as economics, law, public policy and data science. You must be curious and passionate about research and willing to work on independent outputs as well as in teams.

The remuneration offered will be commensurate with your skill and experience and will be comparable with what is found in other research institutions. Interested candidates must email their resume to careers@xkdr.org with the subject line: Application for "Research Positions, Household finance"

Monday, October 25, 2021

Sunday, October 24, 2021

Resolving municipal distress in India

by Adam Feibelman and Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah.

In recent years, municipal bodies in India have been increasingly accessing the public debt markets. In the four year period beginning 2017 to August 2021, nine municipal corporations made bond issuances aggregating to Rs. 30 billion. In contrast, in the immediately preceding two decades, ten municipal bodies had issued bonds aggregating to less than half this amount. This is generally a positive development. Tapping financial markets expands the resources available to cities for critical services and development. Like firms that access the public markets, municipal bodies that subject themselves to market discipline are held up to higher standards of transparency and local governance. A key missing element in this story, however, is the lack of clarity about municipal creditors' rights in the event of a default by a borrowing municipal body. In a chapter published in the 2021 annual publication of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India titled Quinquennial of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016, we argue that the time is ripe for policymakers in India to develop a re-organisation framework for financially distressed municipal bodies. We evaluate the potential of a formal bankruptcy regime as the model for such a framework.

The case for a municipal re-organisation framework

We make three arguments. We begin by demonstrating the weak state of municipal finances in India. For example, in the decade beginning 2007-08, municipal revenues stagnated at 1% of the GDP, significantly lower than comparable countries. Municipal bodies (urban local bodies or ULBs) are disproportionately reliant on state governments for grants in aid and loans. They are shown to have consistently under-invested in capital infrastructure. The pandemic has exacerbated the weak state of municipal finances in India. The size of the municipal debt market is, therefore, likely to grow as municipalities seek additional resources.

Second, we argue that the current legal regime in India provides neither opportunities for collective action against municipal debt default nor clarity on the treatment of creditors (bond holders, banks and financial institutions, state lending agencies, employees and vendors) in the event of the borrowing municipal body's insolvency. Very few municipal bonds are guaranteed by the state government. At one end of the spectrum, this creates the possibility of aggressive sale of public assets, owned and operated by the ULB for the benefit of the public, by 'powerful' creditors of the ULB. On the other end of the spectrum, this deprives the system of the benefits of early recognition of financial distress in ULBs. It minimizes the possibility of salvaging a ULB's operations through a mutually negotiated and court-supervised re-organisation exercise. The growing levels of municipal borrowing from the public markets and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic reinforce these concerns.

Third, the standard re-organisation framework applicable to private borrowers does not apply to ULBs as they provide public goods, and most of their assets are presumably for public use. Several countries have enacted differently designed re-organisation frameworks for resolving distressed municipal bodies. We highlight the key features of one such framework, namely, Chapter 9 of the US Bankruptcy Code. To be sure, Chapter 9 has its critics. However, with more than 100 municipal entities having used Chapter 9 for their resolution, it has proven to be a viable municipal bankruptcy regime. It is a rule-bound process, but one that is flexible enough to be able to address the complex problems of government financial distress, which inevitably combine important commercial concerns with essential necessities of social well being. At the least, it helps frame a number of threshold and critical questions that should be part of any discussion on the reorganization of distressed municipal entities.

Key legal and institutional challenges

We conclude by underscoring some key legal and institutional challenges to the idea of a municipal bankruptcy law in India. First, while bankruptcy and insolvency is in the concurrent list of the Constitution, municipal governance is an intrinsically State subject. A union municipal bankruptcy legislation will raise complex questions of federalism and will require provisions that allow states to retain their autonomy in applying a union legislated bankruptcy law to their ULBs. What might be the institutional tools for preserving such autonomy?

Second, experience from the US suggests a pro-active role for courts in administering a municipal bankruptcy. Any framework in India will need to determine whether the court or administrator heading the process will have the power to supervise the functioning of public services during the ULB's insolvency proceedings. If so, this would be a fundamental departure from the design of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016, which seeks to minimise court intervention in the insolvency proceedings and provides for the appointment of Insolvency Professionals for running the debtor's operations. Similarly, the scope of relief that the process can legitimately provide in a ULB's bankruptcy proceeding will need to be considered. Can a resolution plan for a ULB contemplate an increase in taxes? Can it provide for the sale of the ULB-owned public property? How can it do so without impinging upon decisions that are the prerogative of a city level legislature or the state's power?

Enacting a municipal bankruptcy law will require the resolution of these questions and prolonged negotiations with states much like the enactment of the GST framework. However, this should not deter policymakers from beginning the process. The gains of a clear municipal bankruptcy framework, in the face of the severe impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the deteriorating state of India's cities, should provide a motivation for doing so. The fact that municipal bonds are set to become an important asset held by Indian households adds an additional imperative and responsibility to ensure that there is a framework in place for addressing municipal financial distress in India.


Adam Feibelman is a Professor of Law and Director of the Center on Law and the Economy at Tulane Law School. Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah is a doctoral candidate at the National University of Singapore.

Monday, October 11, 2021

But clouds got in my way: Bias and bias correction of nighttime lights data in the presence of clouds

by Ayush Patnaik, Ajay Shah, Anshul Tayal, Susan Thomas.

Night lights is an opportunity to measure prosperity, using an eye in the sky, without requiring institutional capacity in economic measurement on the ground. The first wave of research used the DMSP-OLS dataset, which had annual images from 1992 to 2013. An improvement in this field was the launch of Suomi-NPP in 2012 where the pixels are smaller (0.5km x 0.5km), and the frequency shifted from annual to monthly. A substantial economics literature has found innovative applications of this data. When research projects are set in India, most researchers have relied on the district-level dataset that is generously released by the World Bank.

In a new paper

  • We suggest there is a downward bias in the radiance, that is associated with the presence of clouds. The magnitudes are economically significant, e.g. -28% in July for Bombay.
  • We propose a bias correction scheme that partly corrects for this bias.
  • We have released the source code which implements our improved methods and conventional methods, so they can be used in data construction by applied economists and for methodological research in remote sensing.

The problem of bias

As an example, consider the radiance seen at the satellite from the city of Bombay:

The red line is the aggregate radiance from Bombay. It shows peculiar annual dips. The vertical dashed lines mark July months, where the monsoon is strongest (on average). The lower graph is the number of cloud-free pixel-days that make up this aggregate radiance. There is a pattern: odd dips in radiance that are correlated with low values for the number of cloud-free pixel-days.

Is this just the seasonality of income, which happens to be correlated with the seasonality of cloud cover? 

The graph above juxtaposes the seasonal factors of monthly aggregate income in Bombay (the black line) vs. the seasonal factors of monthly aggregate radiance for Bombay (the red line). There is no seasonal dip of income in July as is the case with nighttime lights.

This is just an example, for the city of Bombay. The paper has large scale evidence about the presence of this problem more generally.

We conjecture that for a pixel, in a month with a low number of cloud-free images, even on those few days, there are light clouds which attenuate the signal, thus inducing a downward bias in the observed radiance.

A partial bias-correction scheme

When a pixel has both bright and cloudy months in the data, we are able to estimate the bias and correct for it.

There are pixels which are cloudy all through the year. Here, the bias is unidentified.

Our bias-correction scheme works cautiously, only modifying the data when there is high confidence that there is bias and we are able to estimate the magnitude of the bias. It reduces the bias but does not eliminate it.

As an example, consider Bombay:

As before, the black line has the seasonal factors of aggregate income in Bombay. The red line has the seasonal factors of conventionally cleaned night lights data. The dashed purple line has seasonal factors for the night lights data released by the World Bank. 

The blue dotted line is the new bias-corrected night lights data. These seasonal factors are closer to the black line and an improvement upon the two conventional datasets.

Once again, Bombay is just an example; the paper has large scale evidence which demonstrates these gains. For the aggregate radiance of India:

Here also, the dotted blue line (the seasonality of the new night lights data) is closer to the black line (the seasonality of aggregate income in India), and fares better than the two conventional datasets (the World Bank's release or conventionally cleaned nighttime radiance).

Reproducible research

We have released the data and R code to reproduce all our calculations for Bombay. And, we have released a Julia package using which the new tools can be used for methodological research and applications. This software consumes a pixel-level NASA/NOAA VIIRS dataset and returns a bias-corrected pixel-level dataset which will readily fit into analyses of the existing NASA/NOAA VIIRS data. This is also the first open source package for conventional cleaning.

Thursday, September 30, 2021

Distribution of self-reported health in India: The role of income and geography

by Ila Patnaik, Renuka Sane, Ajay Shah and S. V. Subramaniam.

In health research, we study the causes and consequences of health at the individual level. This requires measurement of the health status of individuals. One simple path lies in asking a person: "Are you feeling well today?". This `self-reported health' (SRH) is a measure that is easy to implement, and has limitations in that psychological factors are present. A significant global literature has emerged, which draws on this measure to explore the causes and consequences of health.

The CMIE CPHS is an important new dataset which has longitudinal data for about 170,000 households, measured three times a year. They measure SRH for each individual in each wave. This measurement of SRH, alongside a rich array of household characteristics, makes possible many interesting research projects. In a new paper, Distribution of self-reported health in India: The role of income and geography, we discern some new facts and phenomena about health in India, through this data.

We use data for calendar 2018 and 2019, which works out to 3.5 million observation of a person in a wave. These years were chosen in order to obtain a baseline description of health in India, while avoiding the pandemic of 2020 and the possible impact of demonetisation in 2017.

What do we find? On average, ill health is observed in 3.25% of the records. On average, people in India are unwell for about 12 days a year. There is a U-shaped curve in age, with higher ill health rates for the young and the old.

We get a nice map of the variation of the ill-health rate across the country. This is interesting, in and of itself, as it shows us something about health care requirements. However, some of this variation reflects geographical heterogeneity in income and age structure.

We estimate logit models which explore correlations between standard socio-economic measures and the ill-health rate. The important sources of variation turn out to be age, income and location.

We then focus on an approximately modal person. Model-based predictions for the ill-health probability are constructed for this individual. This yields a map of the predicted ill-health rate --  


 

This shows the variation of ill-health in the 102 `homogeneous regions' (HRs), after controlling for income, age structure and other standard socioeconomic characteristics. It is an interesting and new map. These results do not conform with the standard stereotypes of north vs. south. Epidemiological research is required in understanding what is at work in each of the difficult HRs. Major gains in the health of the people could potentially be obtained by focusing on these hot spots and finding the right public health interventions.

We then ask: are rich people healthier than poor people? As the rich fare better on nutrition, housing quality, knowledge and access to health care, we expect there would be such a correlation. This is indeed the case in the overall aggregate data. However, there is strong geographical variation in this correlation. Ill health and poverty are positively correlated in only half of the country. There are even HRs where the relationship is reverse -- where poor people report better health than the rich. Further, the two maps (the map of ill health of the modal person, and the map of the places where ill health is not positively correlated with income) show different patterns. They are distinct phenomena that invite further exploration.

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Instant cross-border payments vs. current account inconvertibility

by Ajay Shah and Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah.

The Reserve Bank of India announced a project that may potentially link an Indian payments system, UPI, with PayNow, a peer-to-peer payment system operated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. A UPI-PayNow linkage will facilitate instant peer-to-peer cross border payments. It would be a striking solution to the long-standing problems of high transaction costs faced by cross-border transactions. It would help increase India's internationalisation.

In this article, we examine the legal foundations for making this project a reality for the end consumer and merchant. We argue that connecting Indian payment systems with cross-border payment systems would face significant procedural complexities involving current account transactions. While UPI-PayNow connectivity is desirable -- as is connectivity between diverse cross-border payments systems -- barriers to convertibility on the current account can render this connectivity illusory.

Current account inconvertibility

What does a desirable cross border payments system look like? It should allow economic agents to make and receive payments with high speed and low cost. It should impose the minimum inconvenience upon every user. In the field of international trade, there is a clear distinction between tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers, in recognition of the idea that there can be substantial barriers to trade even when an overt tariff barrier is absent.

As per India's commitment to the IMF's Articles of Agreement, Indian residents enjoy full current account convertibility. This means that Indian residents should be able to exchange Indian currency, free of restrictions, for any foreign currency of their choice at market determined or pre-fixed (in case of managed currency regimes) rates. Article VIII(2) of the IMF's Articles of Agreement codifies the obligation of full current account convertibility for its members, thus:

Subject to the provisions of Article VII, Section 3(b) and Article XIV, Section 2, no member shall, without the approval of the Fund, impose restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions.

Section 3(b) of Article VII deals with the replenishment of scarce currency. Section 2 of Article XIV deals with transitional arrangements. None of these provisions, which are more exceptional in nature, apply to normal circumstances.

A multilateral treaty such as the IMF's Articles of Agreement is given binding effect by enacting domestic law to that effect. In India, the International Monetary Fund and Bank Act, 1945 ("IMF Act"), was enacted to give effect to the IMF's Articles of Agreement. However, at the time of its enactment, the IMF Act excluded the said Article VIII(2) as India was not a fully current account convertible country at that time.

When India graduated to current account convertibility in 1993, the Foreign Exchange Regulation (Amendment) Act, 1993 amended FERA to reflect a more liberalised current account regime. However, it allowed the RBI to wield considerable discretion in introducing frictions for making and receiving cross-border payments on the current account. At the same time, the IMF Act was not amended to give binding effect to the said Article VIII(2) of the IMF's Articles of Agreement as domestic law.

After FERA was replaced by the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999, more transactions in foreign exchange became feasible for Indian residents than was once the case. However, the economic notion of full current account convertibility of being able to buy and sell foreign exchange, free of all restrictions, for current account transactions, was not realised in the new law. The FEMA, six years after the 1993 announcement, allows the Central Government to impose restrictions on current account transactions. The current account is less restricted than the capital account. But in 2021, Indian residents continue to face barriers to realising the benefits of `full current account convertibility'. Several barriers, both substantive and procedural, exist that make current account transactions difficult or costly for the average Indian retail consumer and merchant, that are not found in countries that have current account convertibility. These barriers are of two types:

  1. Some hurdles are explicitly imposed by the foreign exchange law and its ad hoc enforcement.
  2. India has restrictions on capital account convertibility. To ensure that the payments ostensibly made or received for current account transactions are not applied towards settling obligations arising from restricted capital account transactions, banks are appointed as gatekeepers. Banks, in turn, have implemented an elaborate procedural machinery to effectively vet each foreign exchange transaction made by a consumer. This creates frictions that hinder current account transactions.

The IMF Articles of Agreement envisage this possibility and attempt to pre-empt it. Article VI(3) of the IMF Articles of Agreement, which allows members to impose controls necessary to regulate international capital movements, specifically provides that, "no member may exercise these controls in a manner which will restrict payments for current transactions or which will unduly delay transfers of funds in settlement of commitments."

There is a third set of rules and regulations under FEMA that violate the spirit of current account convertibility, even if not the strict text of the IMF's Articles of Agreement. These rules and regulations mandate exporters and earners of foreign exchange to repatriate their foreign exchange earnings within a certain period after their realisation. While this period is generally in the range of six to nine months, again, like all other provisions of FEMA, this too is amenable to revision by the RBI and the Central Government.

Barriers to instant peer-to-peer cross-border payments

While the technicalities may differ across transaction type, the bank in question, the merchant and the jurisdiction of the counter-party involved, the hurdles that consumers and merchants face when making cross border payments for current account transactions can be broadly classified into three categories:

Legal restrictions on current account transactions

In exercise of the power conferred on the Central Government under the FEMA, the Central Government has enacted the Current Account Transaction Rules, 2000. These rules prohibit some current account transactions altogether. For example, they prohibit remittances for "hobbies" or the purchase of banned magazines. They also mandate the prior approval of the Central Government for certain types of current account transactions, such as remittances for cultural tours or publishing advertisements in foreign print media. For a third set of transactions, the rules impose caps that may be revised by the RBI from time to time. This effectively means that authorised dealers in foreign exchange must check the rule book when undertaking current account transactions, for they may fall in any of these categories. Particularly, since the restrictions are imposed by rules and legislation made by agencies (not the Parliament), the frequency of revisions is likely to be higher and allow for lesser transition time as they often take effect overnight.

Restrictions linked to payment instruments

Several restrictions against current account convertibility operate through rules about the payment instrument or payment service provider even when it is used for current account transactions.
The Current Account Rules, 2000 impose restrictions on the usage of international credit cards (ICCs) from an Indian issuer. Some of these are in the letter of the law. For example, the rules explicitly prohibit the usage of an ICC for making payment to foreign airlines in a currency other than INR. Other restrictions manifest themselves through enforcement processes. For example, there have been instances of the RBI having issued enforcement letters to holders of ICCs for availing cloud computing services by a foreign company not having operations in India. The basis of the enforcement actions was that the ICCs were meant to be used for current account transactions 'while on a visit outside India'. The outcomes and due process underyling the enforcement actions undertaken by the RBI are rather opaque. The RBI does not issue reasoned orders for its enforcement actions, unlike most other regulators in India. Owing to this opacity, we are not able to know whether holders of ICCs actually ended up paying fines for having used their credit cards for certain current account transactions and the legal foundations of such enforcement actions.
Similarly, until 2015, Indian residents could use the services of online payment gateway service providers (OPGSPs) for the receipt of export proceeds of upto USD 10,000. Later, in order to promote online e-commerce, the RBI allowed Indian importers to use the services of OPGSP to make payments of upto USD 2,000 for imports. Additionally, the RBI mandated OPGSPs that wish to facilitate cross border payments from or to India to set up liason offices in India.

Transaction vetting by banks

RBI has vested banks with the responsibility of acting as gatekeepers for ensuring that payments ostensibly made for current account transactions are not used for engaging in capital account transactions. Technically, this requires banks to vet every single cross border transaction in order to judge its compliance with the FEMA.
To make cross border outward remittances easier for Indian individual residents (as distinguished from corporate bodies and other artificial juridical entities), the RBI issued a `Liberalised Remittance Scheme', which sets annual caps on the amount of foreign exchange that Indian residents can repatriate outside the country, for both capital and current account transactions. This means that making outward remittances requires a payer to fill up atleast one form swearing compliance with the limits and the terms and conditions of the LRS.
Counter intuitively, the friction is exacerbated for inward remittances in the INR denominated bank account of the recipient. To comply with the letter of the law, banks have put in place a system that requires the beneficiary to furnish the bank with a whole bunch of information, such as the purpose of the inward remittance, the bill numbers where the remittance is on account of exports, etc. This form is required to be filled up and submitted for every transaction. Depending on whether the recipient bank is a public sector bank or not and its operational efficiency levels, these forms may require to be furnished in hard copy by visiting a bank branch. It may involve a couple of phone calls from bank representatives asking this, that or the other clarification. For a first time or the occasional recipient of a foreign payment, this practically puts inward remittances on a T+1 settlement cycle!

Current account convertibility means that there is no difference between going onto an e-commerce website and buying from an Indian merchant vs. buying from an overseas merchant. But Indian residents are often asked to perform know-your-customer checks, uploading images of identity documents, when buying from an overseas merchants. In contrast, domestic purchases only require supplying money and not the burden of KYC procedures. This violates globally accepted notions of full current account convertibility, and will be a significant hurdle to making instant cross-border payments a reality for the average Indian consumer.

The problem of convertibility on the current account

Current account convertibility means that cross-border transactions, for the purpose of current account activity, are as frictionless as domestic transactions. Many people believe that India is fully current account convertible; it is sometimes claimed that India has achieved current account convertibility in 1993 and is now inching towards convertibility on the capital account. This is an inaccurate depiction of where India is. There are explicit prohibitions, restrictions or tarriff barriers. There are procedural barriers that drive up the cost of cross-border transactions. There are threats of ad hoc enforcement or disparity across payment instruments or payment service providers.

At first blush, UPI-PayNow connectivity is a sweet and logical idea, there is the possibility of obtaining a quantum leap in reducing transactions costs for cross-border payments. However, it requires the invisible infrastructure of current account convertibility, which is at present lacking in India. The project of building UPI-PayNow connectivity is a great opportunity to re-open these questions and remove all the frictions, whether on paper or in practice, described above. Our objective should be to make India-Singapore payments on the current account as frictionless as (say) payments between the UK and the US.

This situation is not unique to the UPI-PayNow connection. The `fintech revolution' is limited by infirmities of financial regulation in numerous dimensions. Many ideas that first appear eminently sensible tend to break down when placed into the Indian policy environment [example: regulatory sandbox].



Ajay Shah is a researcher at xKDR Forum and Jindal Global University. Bhargavi Zaveri-Shah is a doctoral candidate at the National University of Singapore.