Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Developing countries and the global financial crisis

The Growth Commission organised an interesting meeting at Harvard recently on Financial Crisis and its Impact on Developing Countries' Growth Strategies and Prospects. These materials have come up on the web: day 1, day 2.


  1. Capt. ajay!.... representing the India!

    Interesting to go through Brazil V. India presentations! (But as they are powerpoint slides, it requires more effort! )

    My takeaway:
    Brazil is a commodity economy with far greater dispersal of banking credit within its industries. Brazil's primary impact was first, in collapse of commodity prices followed by banking NPAs.

    India is a services economy with a history of capital constraints and poor credit uptake. First thing to hit was shock to floating rate on its dollar borrowings in wake LEhman. Followed by slumping demand for export sectors: diamonds, IT, textile etc.
    Not seeing much rise in NPAs yet.
    (But ask those lenders on FCCBs!)

    Given the brazilian presenter's copious graphs, one could say Brazil felt it months before India did as commodity prices fell!

    Any body willing to help on further BRazil India comparison?

  2. What is the GDP breakdown for India? I would assume a large chunk is from agriculture?

  3. Agriculture is roughly 15% of GDP. You might like to see this.

  4. Thanks for that.

    I had this very distorted view based on population dependent on agriculture as a means of living.

    So ~65% of our population account for ~15% of output. Good indicator of the scale of inequality I guess.


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