tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post8845795474035860129..comments2024-03-27T17:16:12.789+05:30Comments on The Leap Blog: A nuclear weapon going off in your city centreAjay Shahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03835842741008200034noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-35859270421535575092009-07-06T19:39:35.439+05:302009-07-06T19:39:35.439+05:30Dr. Shah,Analyse the budget.
No talk of Pension ...Dr. Shah,Analyse the budget. <br /><br />No talk of Pension Reforms, Education Reforms, Disinvestment this time. <br /><br />But, I dont really blame Mr. Mukh. for today's massacre.Soham Dashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16061423154270335417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-47139744505807046452009-06-30T19:58:56.129+05:302009-06-30T19:58:56.129+05:30"For him, it's efficient to sell protecti..."For him, it's efficient to sell protection, getting cash for free while he's around with no cash outgo if things go wrong (thanks to vaporisation)."<br /><br />The pricing of options is predicated on this. But I don't understand why this is rational and will come to pass. Shouldn't there be a rational basis when defining a plausible scenario?Chandrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04763671243428875888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-54312574049868781222009-06-30T14:22:53.945+05:302009-06-30T14:22:53.945+05:30We are the six blind men and the elephant. I'm...We are the six blind men and the elephant. I'm the blind man who thinks in terms of economics and finance when he encounters the elephant.Ajay Shahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03835842741008200034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-63877761540945267302009-06-30T13:13:48.174+05:302009-06-30T13:13:48.174+05:30"Vaporisation is not that bad, once you get t..."Vaporisation is not that bad, once you get to think about it, but one does think about it.<br /><br />I tried to look at the fledgling Nifty options market, to see whether there was something one could read in the implied volatility. Then I started thinking that nuclear war is a unique problem on the options market. "<br /><br />Apologies, but I still can't stop laughing and giggling at the apparent chain of thoughts. Not to really sound dismissive, in fact its a good thought experiment, but in the wider range of things, it looks so inconsequential.:D<br /><br />Well, as for me.. I refuse to predict. :D with the options market, if I survive, I will short the options with the highest IV :D <br /><br />I think, I will be buying Uranium futures in NYMEX :DSoham Dashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16061423154270335417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-43314040512821414282009-06-30T06:20:58.255+05:302009-06-30T06:20:58.255+05:30The credit risk issue would be similar to previous...The credit risk issue would be similar to previous less dire events with sovereign risk? The common counterparty credit risk example: some US funds lost money while being on the right side of the Russia 1998 default trade because they bought protection from Russian banks and never got paid!<br /><br />Which is why most of the US sovereign CDS market is quoted and settled in Euros (with no US entity involved) and similarly for other countries.<br /><br />Instead of buying options in the Indian market, foreigners could buy options on the ADRs or Indian ETFs or funds listed in the US. eg: EPI/PIN/ICN/IFN/IIF all have option markets on them.<br /><br />It would be interesting to see implied vol changes on these ETFs vs. NIFTY options before various events in the future.. hopefully less dire events like the upcoming budget release.<br /><br />Duke Nukem: Not sure the Swissie is a good idea for a safe bet:<br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/10/11/business/20081011_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html" rel="nofollow">Short Term Bank Liabilities by Country</a><br /><a href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/19/switzerland-eastern-europe-markets-economy_switzerland_20.html" rel="nofollow">Swiss Franc Devaluation?</a>viveknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19649274.post-49128158107427043212009-06-30T01:52:34.667+05:302009-06-30T01:52:34.667+05:30Interesting post.
If I "expect to be vaporis...Interesting post.<br /><br />If I "expect to be vaporised in the event of nuclear war", I'm leaving the country and stocking up on either gold or swiss francs.<br /><br />I'm not sure if that is rational!Duke Nukemnoreply@blogger.com